HydroMetLLC

128 posts

HydroMetLLC

@HydroMetLLC

Saving the world from biased and unreliable hydromet forecasts. Specializing in QPF, QPE and streamflow across the southwest US.

At the surface Beigetreten Nisan 2021

30 Folgt45 Follower

HydroMetLLC@HydroMetLLC·26 Ara

If you are a meteorologist, hydrologist or just a casual weather/water geek, consider giving to the CoCoRaHS 2025 Year-End Fundraiser! It's one of the best volunteer-driven networks ever created with 1,000s of high quality measurements per day. #CoCoRaHS #cowx give.colostate.edu/cocorahs-2025?…

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HydroMetLLC@HydroMetLLC·16 Eki

@PalmerDivide_wx Agree, but all indications are they may not come back. ACARS are at least somewhat filling this data gap.

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Adam Adkins@PalmerDivide_wx·16 Eki

@HydroMetLLC Would be great to have the balloons back!

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HydroMetLLC@HydroMetLLC·15 Eki

(1/3) The recent San Juan River flow at Pagosa Springs has been near unprecedented levels for October. This shows the 1935-present daily avg. data. The peak flow during this event was at least 5x higher than the snowpack-related peak earlier in the year. #cowx #coflood

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HydroMetLLC@HydroMetLLC·15 Eki

(3/3) The driver of this recent event was moisture of subtropical origin that spiked Precipitable Water (PW) levels far beyond anything measured over past ~70 years in Oct. This shows the estimated Denver PW, which was on the fringe of the main moisture surge. #cowx #coflood

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HydroMetLLC@HydroMetLLC·15 Eki

(2/3) The peak from the past storm was likely the highest since a major flood in 1911. However, the double peak nature of this storm is notable. Here's a USGS paper that discusses the 1911 event, which focused on the adjacent Animas River. #cowx #coflood co.water.usgs.gov/projects/COFlo…

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HydroMetLLC@HydroMetLLC·29 Eyl

When accounting for the unusually late occurrence in the warm season, the Annual Exceedance Probability (AEP) likely reduces by a factor of 2 or more. This makes the storm a likely 0.5-1% AEP event at the 60-min duration. #cowx @mhfdfws

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HydroMetLLC@HydroMetLLC·29 Eyl

The storm formed in an atmosphere w/near record moisture for late Sep, with Precipitable Water near 0.8-0.9 in. Although this value is not overly impressive, the storm occurred at 8,400 ft in elevation, highlighting the ability of terrain to maximize moisture convergence. #cowx

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HydroMetLLC@HydroMetLLC·29 Eyl

Heavy rainfall just measured 1.31 inches/30-min and 1.71 in 60-min east of Nederland, CO. Annual Exceedance Probabilities ranged from 2-20%, depending on duration. #cowx @mhfdfws

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HydroMetLLC@HydroMetLLC·29 Ağu

Here's another perspective on this dry bias, but with 2-m dewpoint temperature today (8/28). This happens repeatedly during situations where there is a well-mixed boundary layer. Note the NAMNEST significantly outperforming despite much less advanced initialization scheme. #cowx

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HydroMetLLC@HydroMetLLC·21 Ağu

Yesterday, the early afternoon #HRRR short-term Precipitable Water forecasts for Denver were consistently off by 0.5 inches. This happens quite frequently. Anyone have any insight on this? #cowx

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HydroMetLLC@HydroMetLLC·27 Ağu

Yesterday (8/26), heavy rain (and flooding) south of Bennett, CO measured 2.60in./1-hr and 3.49in./2-hr, a 0.5-1% Annual Exceedance Prob. per NOAA Atlas 14. This trace is from a Personal Wx Station, which despite its quality control issues, comes in handy in rural regions. #cowx

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HydroMetLLC retweetet

ALERT Flood Detection@mhfdfws·26 Ağu

Tue, Aug 26, 2025: Heavy rain is forecast today over the @MHFloodDistrict with abundant moisture helping to produce efficient rainfall rates. #COflood threats include rises on waterways, road flooding & debris flows over steep terrain. Follow @NWSBoulder for the latest. #cowx

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HydroMetLLC retweetet

ALERT Flood Detection@mhfdfws·30 Tem

Wed, Jul 30, 2025: More heavy rain is expected over the @MHFloodDistrict this afternoon & evening. Rises on local waterways, road/low-lying area flooding, & debris flows over steep terrain will be possible. Follow @NWSBoulder for the latest warnings & advisories. #cowx #COflood

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HydroMetLLC@HydroMetLLC·29 Tem

A few 3 inch/hour max rain intensities showing up in our guidance for northeast Colorado today. Interestingly, only a 1% Annual Chance event out there, per NOAA Atlas 14. #cowx #coflood

ALERT Flood Detection@mhfdfws

Tue, Jul 29, 2025: Despite AM cloud cover, plenty of moisture is expected to fuel scattered to widespread PM storms over mainly southern portions of the @MHFloodDistrict. Follow @NWSBoulder for the latest warnings & advisories. #cowx #coflood

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HydroMetLLC@HydroMetLLC·24 Tem

@mhfdfws @MHFloodDistrict @NWSBoulder Although it did not have the highest Denver metro storm total yesterday, the dumper in Aurora probably had the highest 15-30min rain rate yesterday. Here's the accumulation, showing a 1.40in/15-min or 1% annual chance event. #cowx #coflood

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HydroMetLLC retweetet

ALERT Flood Detection@mhfdfws·23 Tem

Wed, Jul 23, 2025: Persistent upslope flow in a high moisture environment will return the threat for heavy #MHFDrain to the western @MHFloodDistrict. Flash flooding & debris flows will be possible. Please follow @NWSBoulder for the latest warnings & advisories. #cowx #COflood

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HydroMetLLC retweetet

ALERT Flood Detection@mhfdfws·24 Tem

Thu, Jul 24, 2025: Another High threat of heavy is expected this afternoon/evening for the @MHFloodDistrict. Highest threat will be southern/eastern areas. Flash flooding & debris flows will be possible. Follow @NWSBoulder for the latest warnings & advisories. #cowx #COflood

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HydroMetLLC retweetet

ALERT Flood Detection@mhfdfws·24 Tem

More heavy rainfall for the @MHFloodDistrict this evening (Wed, Jul 23rd). An ALERT gauge in Aurora picked up 1.62in/1-hour (4-10% annual chance). More impressive is the 15-minute rainfall rate of 1.15in (3% annual chance). #cowx #COflood

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HydroMetLLC@HydroMetLLC·23 Tem

An afternoon of heavy rainfall is still on track for the Front Range. Precipitable Water is now in the 90%+. #cowx #coflood

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HydroMetLLC@HydroMetLLC·23 Tem

7/23/2025: A very active day of heavy rainfall is expected today along the #FrontRange. Our bias-corrected guidance for the probability of exceeding 1-inch/hour is about as high as it ever gets over the #COwx high terrain. #coflood

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HydroMetLLC@HydroMetLLC·23 Tem

#cowx

Colorado Flood Threat Bulletin@COFloodUpdates

#FTB: A HIGH #COflood threat has been issued for the Front Range where persistent upslope flow is expected in a high moisture environment. Mud flows, debris slides, and excessive runoff will be possible this afternoon into this evening over this forecast zone. Read more details here: coloradofloodthreat.com/flood_threat_b…

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Entdecken

@PalmerDivide_wx @mhfdfws @MHFloodDistrict @NWSBoulder @elonmusk @BarackObama @taylorswift13 @cristiano