Non-Correlating Stock Ideas

Between my FinTwit feed + Crypto community here on Twitter, I've decided to take a break from this network. It just isn't what it used to be, and I'm finding a clearer signal than this noise over at Bluesky now. Maybe I'll come back someday. Maybe not. ncsi.bsky.social

From the unimportant file, walking home on a cold evening just using the auto-catcher, picked up this Galarian Zapdos. This is actually the second one I've auto-catched. I share to suggest you shouldn't bother trying to catch them and endure the aggravation. @PokemonGoApp

This used to be about finances for the disenfranchised as well as independence from government and third-party "trusted" intermediaries. The community sold out to politicians for higher prices giving us ETF's with options. The potential has been sacrificed solely for greed.

I have to admit with my feed dominated with $BTC high 5's I feel less attached to the community than since the beginning. Most of the people here I used to respect have sold out to politicians for higher BTC/USD price. This feels like the 90's internet all over again. We've lost.

There's a point where $CNI is interesting. It's the best railroad in NA and now starting to trade cheaper than peers. It's just that the overall valuation is still about 2-3x what I paid two decades ago. $CNI / $SPXEW

Here's the long term version of this ratio in log form: $RLV / $RLG

Not surprising, but it looks like it will be all Growth into the finishing line this year. Ytd $RLV / $RLG. I feel your pain and frustration Value investors, but this often provides the good setup for purchases in December outperforming in the next year.

Was this a false breakout for the USD $DXY? Starting to wonder given how quickly it's coming back in. If so, then the ramifications for '25 set up's looms large.

Chart hasn't updated yet, but $DXY USD just generated a triple Buy signal on 1% box chart. This has been one scenario that I did not expect from the post election action. The buck has been about the best asset out there this month. Hugely negative for global equities thesis.

Out of the basket of assets that haven't worked since the election mostly due to the rally in USD, $EDIV and EM in general have been noteworthy last few days. I'm considering bumping up my position.

$METC $METCB "holders will receive a number of shares of Class B common stock for each share of Class B common stock determined... by the closing transaction price of the Class B common stock on December 2, 2024." No VWAP, just the last price, so yes I expect a pop on the close.

This feels right. The volatility and bizarre trading between assets is off the charts IMO.

@hmeisler Maybe it's just time to move to % over $.

Hmmm. Maybe I will have to move the poll to 200 points by midyear.

@mark_ungewitter @fundandtechy I too have moved to % on PnF. Just clearly getting fewer false signals. Linear on long term charts is probably the #1 most common chart crime.

@fundandtechy I prefer percentage scale on P&F charts and log scale on standard charts.

@mark_ungewitter when you do RS on PnF, do you stick to default scaling, or do you adjust it to something else?

The volatility on $CVS has just been crazy recently. Gaps all over the place.

An interesting market reaction that says a lot, $MLI is down today after getting bumped up from the small-cap S&P 600, to the mid-cap S&P 400. There's more ETF exposure in the former than the latter, but I think that helps explain why mid-caps provide excess returns.

@fundandtechy I'd expect them to return to it. The popular view is it worked with no negative side effects. (Not my view, but I'm not a member of the federal reserve.😁)

@IdeasNon Will we return to that policy in the future, or will use a softer touch in policy and let markets sort things out in most cases?

Interesting. Looks like he’s a bit early historically, but right.

The push back against the $NVDA 🚫 $CSCO thesis. TTM Ev/Ebitda Cisco peak in '00 about 140x. Nvidia's recent 160x. Of course Cisco's eventual peak much higher a few years later after capex collapsed.

$METC is going to distribute about 810,000 shares of $METCB on the next dividend assuming the latter holds up around 10. That's just a ton of supply hitting this illiquid stock at the end of the year no less. This is a mistake of their own doing.