Investor's Compass

I’m happy to announce I partnered with @TacticzH to write a deep dive on $FICO. The company is down 58% from its high as the moat is under pressure. So, it’s time to dig in deep and see whether it’s justified, or actually an opportunity. We cover everything you need to know in this deep dive. Free to read, so have a look! investorscompass.substack.com/p/fair-isaac-c…

Today, Fair Isaac $FICO stock closed under $1,000 for the first time since 2023. So, what's going on, is it a buy, or is competition gonna get to it? Read my latest free article and find out! investorscompass.substack.com/p/fair-isaac-c…

@invest091 @TacticzH Thank you so much guys! I'm glad you find the tool useful

@TacticzH Big fan of @InvestorCompass and his Reverse DCF Tool, bookmarked 🙌

$FICO Deep Dive is now live! Timing could not have been better. $FICO is down about 6% today. FICO is experiencing a heavy sell-off as the moat is under pressure. So, time to dig in deep and see if it’s justified, or actually an opportunity. We cover everything you need to know in this deep dive. Free to to read, so have a look! I wrote this deep dive in collaboration with @InvestorCompass Link in bio and in the comment section.

@TacticzH Would love to do it again sometime in the future!

@InvestorCompass Thanks for the collab mate! Happy with the result on this $FICO deep dive.

I’m happy to announce I partnered with @TacticzH to write a deep dive on $FICO. The company is down 58% from its high as the moat is under pressure. So, it’s time to dig in deep and see whether it’s justified, or actually an opportunity. We cover everything you need to know in this deep dive. Free to read, so have a look! investorscompass.substack.com/p/fair-isaac-c…

Newest watchlist is out! Analysis on $SPY, Silver, Micron $MU, Chevron $CVX, and more. Plus market updates and how to position yourself this week! open.substack.com/pub/investorsc…

Newest article is out! Silver is a key level now, sitting near a support, but I’m not convinced just yet to buy it. Here’s why: investorscompass.substack.com/p/silver-is-at… $SLV $GLD #Gold

Weekly watchlist is out! Quick analysis on $SPY, $ADBE, $MU, $WM, $WMT, $GILD, $EMA, $BTC, and Silver. investorscompass.substack.com/p/9-stocks-im-…

Mark Miller of Constellation Software $CSU.TO earlier today: "There’s real noise in the market now about AI disrupting software businesses, and we take that very seriously. We think we’re well-positioned. Although we’re staying very disciplined about how we approach it." More here: investorscompass.substack.com/p/constellatio…

Constellation Software $CSU.TO deep dive is now out! I wanted to get this one out earlier, but it took me lots of time, almost 5000 words. I think it’s a generational opportunity the market is missing. If you find this article interesting, please consider giving it a like. It would help me a lot! investorscompass.substack.com/p/constellatio…

Constellation Software $CSU.TO reported their Q4 earnings today, with cash from operations increasing 16%, revenue increasing 18% (2% adjusted organic growth), and FCFA2S falling 12%, although for the full year, FCFA2S rose 14% to $1.683B My long-term thesis on Constellation Software from a few days ago is still relevant. You can read about it here: open.substack.com/pub/investorsc…

Constellation Software $CSU.TO Q4 analysis is out! investorscompass.substack.com/p/constellatio…

Sometimes markets punish companies simply because the story stops improving. The business can still be strong. But if expectations stop rising, the stock can stagnate for years.

New weekly watchlist is out! Analysis on Constellation Software $CSU.TO, $UAMY, $ADBE, $RBRK, $WMT, $L.TO, $SPY, #Gold, #Bitcoin, and more. investorscompass.substack.com/p/new-week-new…

Sell high, buy low ✅ Sold $CSU.TO at $4,330 before it got bad Bought after it got bad but showed signs of recovery around $2,600 Constellation Software is still at the “buy low” part long term My latest article talks about it: open.substack.com/pub/investorsc…

@invest091 Great! Hope you enjoy the read

@InvestorCompass Reading this weekend :)

Most stocks fall into three buckets. Some are compounders that grow steadily for years. Some are cyclicals that look cheap near the top and expensive near the bottom. And some are narrative stocks that move mostly on stories. A lot of investors get into trouble because they treat all three the same way. If you’re into compounders, you’ll love this article. Check it out. open.substack.com/pub/investorsc… #investing

One of the most underrated edges in long-term investing is simply being able to sit still. Most underperformance comes from constantly trading, reacting to headlines, and second-guessing. I’ve been guilty of this many times. Patience sounds simple, but it’s rare in markets.

What Happens If Someone Actually Tries to Replace One Of Constellation Software's Companies? Take Trapeze Group, one of the companies in Constellation’s portfolio (within Volaris Group). Trapeze builds software used by transit agencies around the world to run bus and rail networks. Its systems handle things like route planning, driver scheduling, dispatch coordination, vehicle tracking, and maintenance management. In many cities, the software essentially acts as the operational brain of the transit system. Now imagine this scenario. A mid-size city transit authority has been using Trapeze’s software for over a decade. During that time the system has become deeply integrated into the agency’s operations. Dispatchers rely on it every day to assign drivers and manage routes. Maintenance teams use it to track vehicle repairs. Ridership data from ticketing systems flows into it. Payroll calculations depend on it for overtime rules. Over the years, thousands of operational decisions have been built around the logic inside the system. Then one day a startup shows up with a pitch. They claim they’ve built an AI-powered transit platform that can optimize routes in real time, predict delays, and improve efficiency. The demo looks slick. The interface is modern. Compared with the older system the agency has been using, the new platform looks like a clear technological upgrade. After several meetings, the transit authority decides to try it. The vendor promises that migrating away from the existing system will take only a few months. The agency approves the project and begins planning the transition. But almost immediately things start getting complicated. The first issue is data. The Trapeze system contains years of route schedules, driver assignments, maintenance logs, and historical ridership patterns. None of that data transfers cleanly into the new platform. The formats are different. Some fields don’t match. Some rules for scheduling logic behave differently. Engineers spend weeks writing scripts just to move the data over. Then the staff training begins. Dispatchers who have been using the old system for years now need to learn a completely new interface. Small mistakes start happening. Drivers receive incorrect shift assignments. Routes are scheduled with unrealistic turnaround times. Dispatchers start manually correcting problems that the old system used to handle automatically. Next come the integrations. It turns out the scheduling system is connected to far more systems than anyone remembered. The ticketing platform pulls data from it. GPS vehicle tracking feeds into it. Payroll systems rely on it for overtime calculations. Each of those integrations now needs to be rebuilt. The timeline begins slipping. Months pass, and the agency finds itself running two systems at once. The old Trapeze system continues to manage daily operations while the new AI platform struggles to reach full functionality. Then something breaks. During a limited rollout, the new platform produces incorrect schedules for several routes. A handful of buses arrive late. Drivers report confusion about shift assignments. Commuters begin filing complaints about service disruptions. At that point the leadership team faces a difficult decision. Continue pushing forward with the migration and risk further operational problems, or abandon the project and stick with the system that has been working reliably for years. In many real-world cases, organizations make the same choice. They revert back to the existing system. The new AI software may have been impressive in theory, but the operational risk of replacing infrastructure that already works turned out to be far greater than expected. This is the dynamic that defines much of Constellation’s portfolio. Once vertical market software becomes embedded inside an organization’s workflows, it stops behaving like ordinary software. It becomes infrastructure. And infrastructure is notoriously difficult to replace. More analysis in my latest free deep dive if you're interested! $CSU.TO investorscompass.substack.com/p/constellatio…

@NotMarkLeonard I'm ready for earnings. Just wrote my pre-earnings analysis. What do you think about CSU? investorscompass.substack.com/p/constellatio…

$CSU.TO earnings release Monday @ 7:00 AM Conference call starts at 8:30 AM March 9