JVP Bets

Cagliari 🇮🇹 Berrettini (vs. Navone) @ 2.22 - Pinnacle - 1.0u Sometimes it is wild how quickly the sentiment around players change, and Berrettini is really feeling that effect at the moment. No more than 3 weeks ago he double-bageled Medvedev, lets not forget Losing to Fonseca since then, and also Prizmic seems to have dampened the steam around the Italian, which is somewhat understandable. He is not the player he was, even just 12 months ago, but this still seems a bit much. The losses he had, his opponents played extremely well, Prizmic probably best form of his life, and Fonseca proving to be close to a top-player on clay at this point, so not like he is falling apart against low-tier players Did not have the opportunity to watch the match against Kypson closely, but of course going three sets with the American who is by no stretch a clay expert, even if he did decently against Tsitsipas in Madrid, is not all that encouraging. On the plus side he should now have acclimatised to the switch from altitude to sea-level, which can't be underestimated either Navone I have spoken about before, and it is fair that he is priced competetively in this match-up, but it is not like he is coming into this match-up with perfect results either I won't exactly call this a true 50-50, but Berrettini needs to get a little more love playing in his homecountry and the ability he does still possess

Madrid 🇪🇸 Jodar -1.5 sets (vs. Kopriva) @ 1.67 - Pinnacle - 1.0u Trying to attack the line in the most fitting way, and this is the angle I see having the best chances here It feels as if there is a little bit of concern from the market, on whether Jodar's calf is okay as he was stretching it somewhat towards the end of the Fonseca game, but it did not look as if his movement was hampered much by it, so comfortable taking this spot At this point in time it goes without saying that Jodar has been brilliant, apart from the slight hick-up against De Jong, and nothing to me indicates that it won't be a similiar story against Kopriva I have to concede that the Czech has performed better than I give him credit for, and even though he is not one of the most physically imposing players on tour he is able to generate a ton of power on his shots, and also moving quite well With that being said giving up 9 break-points to what turned out to be a injured Rinderknech, even losing a set where the Frenchman couldn't walk in the end, does not give me the impression he will be able to challenge Jodar enough Just as Rinderknech had it, there will be tons of break-point opportunities for Jodar to pounce on, and I see him converting them at a higher clip, which will end up being too much for Kopriva to handle Given the market's love for Jodar aswell it doesn't feel unreasonable to assume that he will get played down further, and with ML already, a bet on a straight set win seems to be the pricepoint with most opportunity for movement

Madrid 🇪🇸 Vallejo (vs. Cobolli) @ 2.59 - Pinnacle - 1.0u Is Cobolli rightfully the favorite here? Of course, but from what the Paraguyan has shown in the first two rounds, I think he should command a little more respect Vallejo has looked great in his matches against Dimitrov & Tien, although both opponents didn't come in with the highest possible gear they could, but both wins were comfortable enough for me to be convinced Cobolli has also looked great, especially in Munich, but the conditions there are not as they are in Madrid, and the round against Carabelli had Flavio in slightly more trouble Furthermore Cobolli also has a tendency to fluctuate in level, from insane highs like against Zverev, but also struggling hugely in Monaco with wild swings between sets I could see Vallejo getting some more love from the market during the morning, and that is why I am getting in at this price, hopefully we close below 2.5

Madrid 🇪🇸 Rinderknech (vs. Kopriva) @ 1.72 - Pinnacle - 1.0u Again, very close to start of and I simply can't understand line is moving in the Czech's favour, so not trying to hunt tons of value in terms of movement, but I simply just think price is too good at this point in time Sure beating Rublev was impressive from Kopriva, but that says more about Andrey than it does Vit to be honest. And Zhizhen Zhang in the first round seemed like a man not fully fit. The week prior in Munich, Darderi had one of the most embarrassing collapses of the seasons aswell against Korpiva, but I refuse to believe it is due to Kopriva being unplayable, but for him just having been at the right place at the right time, and I will gladly eat my words if he continues to prove me wrong Rinderknech has also really found his stride, with a heavy serve and a surprising amount of finesse, and he should be the stronger player more often than not, being able to hold serve fairly comfortably, and pushing Kopriva everytime the Czech is serving Again not expecting huge surge towards Rinderknech in the last hour or so before start, but I have to push the button anyway here, at what is also peak of the price on the Frenchman

Madrid 🇪🇸 Jodar (vs. De Minaur) @ 2.09 - Pinnacle - 1.0u Line has been a bit all over the place for this game, and honestly I can see why. Usually I don't like things close to deadline, but I see late steam coming for Jodar here Jodar looked borderline unstoppable in Barcelona, and only a Fils firing on all cylinders managed to do something about it in the final. Coming into Madrid I think nobody saw coming that Jodar would be so close to an exit against Jesper deJong as he was, but that has for sure impacted the price and dampened the hype a bit. It almost seemed as if the faster courts almost gave him too much power behind his shots, and he wasn't able to comfortably hold serve or break at will as he did the weeks prior. However for me it is not all bad, as he somehow managed to survive where many others usually don't. Him and his team should have learned from the game, and can apply it going forward De Minaur has also looked a bit off lately, and none of his recent results give any indication that he is playing on his peak at all. This will also be his first match this year in Madrid, and, like Jodar, he might also be slightly surprised by the different conditions compared to Monaco & Barcelona I have a feeling the match will go 3 sets, and the speed of Minaur versus the power of Jodar will be a great watch hopefully, but I see the ever slightest of values on the young Spaniard at this point

Madrid 🇪🇸 Atmane (vs. Kecmanovic) @ 2.43 - Pinnacle - 1.0u Interesting match this with two players who don’t really like the clay much too be fair Atmane looks to finally be back in-form which I think he proved in the absolute war against Fils in Barcelona. That loss, also against Etchverry, are much more impressive than market is given him credit for. Kecmanovic has done nothing lately that really wows me, although the Zverev match was extremely close to an upset, and I think he generally just does not have any spectacular weapons With what I have seen in Madrid, courts play to also fit Atmane just fine, and I see value in him to finally start picking up wins for his good performances

Madrid 🇪🇸 Brooksby (vs. Nava) @ 2.68 - Pinnacle - 1.0u Was the soft books opening line on Nava ridiculously mispriced? Absolutely yes, don't know what that was about Plenty here on the platform have great value on Nava, and rightfully so, but things are getting out of control in terms of the price Brooksby is not the same player he was a year ago, winning in Houston, now losing to McDonald in his last outing is terrible, no two ways about it. If we zoom out slightly more, Brooksby is facing top-players in the majority of his games; Paul, Lehecka, Medvedev & Tiafoe some of his last loses. Losing can of course never be positive, but outside of maybe Bergs and of course McDonald his losses come to quality opposition, and market seems to gloss over this fact Let us also just look at Nava, fair enough that he is priced as a favorite in the current conditions, but his resume can't justify this gap, against an actual ATP player. 2 wins against a Goffin on the verge of retirement as your most recent wins, is not something I can get onboard with, although he did challenge Shelton well in Munich in similiar conditions to Madrid. Previously I have seen some absolutely terribly plays from him, and a player like Brooksby will make you finish every single point. I can see Nava's rally tolerance being tested here. Have to admit that I could see market continuing to steam Nava into a bigger & bigger favorite, but feels like a spot where everybody has stared themselves blind on a value that was for sure there at opening, but can't keep getting wider and still hold the same appeal

Madrid 🇪🇸 Gaubas (vs. Sakamoto) @ 1.94 - Pinnacle - 1.0u The first bet at Madrid, and in this 50-50 I am leaning Gaubas way. Very impressive showing against Gea today, who didn't put up much of a fight, but the same can be said for Sakamoto facing Svajda Even though the Madrid courts play faster than regular clay, as also evidenced by a ton of tie-breaks and aces today, I still see an advantage for Gaubas. Sakamoto still feels better suited for a different style of play than he will be facing here, and I don't think Svajda was a proper test of how the matches will play out at this tournament Gaubas is at that sweet spot where he meets players just slightly above his level each time at ATP events and he therefore might look worse than he is, so think he is able to play more comfortably here against a player less acclimatized to the clay(ish) grind

Madrid 🇪🇸 Wu(vs. Droguet) @ 1.909 - Pinnacle - 1.0u Is the Chinese finally healthy and back on form? Market seems not to be of that impression, otherwise they are seeing something completely different than am I, but this has to be the peak of the price Wu is incredibly fast, but still possesses more power than you would think. Did not get the chance to watch much of the match against Dhamne in R1 of Qualifiers, but unless he looked straight up injuried there, which I doubt, we should be good here Beating Virtanen in 3 sets, and retiring at the event prior, is not really something that gives off the vibes that line should be moving so hefty against the Frenchman Wu's style does include a ton of risk, but his speed and the pace of the courts in Madrid so far can at the very least not be to his disadvantage Hopefully catching this one at the top before market gets some sense in the morning