Adventures of a Single Dad

@TradeQuantiX + 1 for this post.

Do you want to know why you're not succeeding as a systematic trader? It's because your psychology isn't aligned. You need to focus on having a bullet proof metal state. Just kidding. It's because your system is probably overfit and you don't have an edge. Psychology is meaningless without an edge. Sorry!

@rjpjr12 Kelly criteria appears to be the gold standard majority uses, but likes dynamic risk analysis to market regimes. Don’t get me wrong, use it. I think a regime aware dynamic risk analyzer can outperform if built correctly.

"This is why every major fund runs small positions across many instruments rather than large concentrated bets. A 51% edge with Kelly sizing across five hundred independent positions compounds into something no single bet could produce."

@elonmusk Then the person that excels new ideas will become highly valuable - outside of the box thinking. Pipeline: Idea guy - > agent research - > hand off -> get it done agent. That’s my expert technical analysis:)

Interesting

@grok theorize under conditions listed above - meaning, anthropic’s positions are purely financial which they are. Government is either helping or not given the little tit for tat about using their Ai

I typically keep my posts to quant trading, but this anthropic fable situation is confusing. 1. Government argues with anthropic about using the system for weapons, anthropic pulls out. 2. Anthropic messaging that their new system is scary and may be used to get hack any site. 3. Anthropic releases fable, which capabilities are truly amazing (burned tokens like a cheerleader with daddy’s credit card but still amazing). 4. Government pulls fable. Number 4 is both good and bad for anthropic. It’s good because you couldn’t ask for better marketing. Bad for obvious reasons . Number 2 seems like egg on anthropic’s face. Direct marketing messaging about worrying the new AI is too strong and now complain because the government says it’s too strong. What’s the catch here ? Doesn’t make sense

@TrendSpider Interesting, but what tools are at the disposal to train ? Devils in the details.

🚨 Any investor can now train custom AI models. Train your models on one or multiple markets, on any timeframe, using any inputs. The time to build is now. 🧪 trendspider.cc/AIStrategyLab

Personally I don’t trade this, but it has always been a passion project that I wanted to finish.

🌊 Complete Elliott Wave [MarketFragments] — now on TradingView. Most EW scripts are bottom-up zigzag counters that force a count one swing at a time. This is a full top-down, all-degree engine — and the wave math was verified in Python before the Pine port. • All degrees: 1-5 / A-B-C recursed into every leg (i-v → (i)-(v) → [i]-[v]) • Auto-window frames the dominant swing for you • 8-rule confidence panel + separate Fibonacci-fit score • Forward PRZ projection for the next expected turn • Inline trade-suggestion panel — setup, bias, entry/stop, targets, R:R — great for learning the setups • Non-repainting closed history Labels-only research tool, not a signal. 👉 tradingview.com/script/hsvYGHC… marketfragments.com $ES $SPY #ElliottWave #PineScript #TradingView

@TheRealDrip2Rip Killer visual

In my own freakin league now…

@AnthropicAI Have/had a max Pro account. Trying to resolve. Contacted support via email and chat with same response to an appeal form appeal page. Appeal form link is broken. Tried multiple trouble shooting pathways resulting in the same failure. Could really use a hand, assist, pass, Etc…..

@MoonDevOnYT Good video. Took me a few years to get that down

stop trying to predict price with machine learning because you are just learning noise patterns that will fail tomorrow the top reason most machine learning hedge funds fail is that they use ai to predict direction instead of managing risk this ibm researcher left to join the most successful quantitative hedge fund ever and his strategy doesn't use ai to find alpha at all

Full Python build is done and verified includes all 8 cycles. Not opening the engine — but the live results will be public. If interest is high, I’ll consider releasing/selling the full Python version that handles all cycle degrees properly.

🌊 REAL ELLIOTT WAVE just dropped! A true top-down Elliott Wave labeler that frames the dominant swing, builds clean 1-2-3-4-5 impulses + A-B-C corrections, adds fractal minor/micro waves, and scores confidence against the 7 classic Elliott rules — without repainting. Nothing like this is publicly available. This is the closest approximation for these platforms. #Marketfragments Free & open source 🧵👇

Real Elliot Wave sources 📊 TradingView Script: tradingview.com/script/lLrD2Oa… 💬 Pine Script details + download: marketfragments.com/group-page/pin… 💬 ThinkScript for ThinkOrSwim: marketfragments.com/group-page/thi… v1 is live. Suggestions & recommendations for Version 2 are welcomed — what would you like to see next? Let’s make Elliott Wave actually usable on the charts. #ElliottWave #TradingView #ThinkOrSwim

i like your work. Whenever I'm done with this massive project, we should partner on your solar system market project. It was an obsession of mine early on. Have mountains of files, books, research papers, indicators, etc. I could run it through claude for optimizations. While I'm unsure the outcome, it's like the little thing in back of my mind that was never finished.

Some of you might remember this. Reposting a few charts I shared on this account in November 2024. Squaring out the highs and lows, the yellow lines are drawn horizontally to intersect the 1x1 (the green line) to watch for a trend change. Something I found useful in backtesting and shared openly. There's also a feature I introduced in my Price and Longitude Angles indicator in 2024 that lets you color-code bars by the orbital period of the planet selected for the angles. I introduce it, tracking Geo Mars across this Bitcoin HTF chart, marking the past Scorpio major tops heading into 2025. ✅ Resurfacing as an FYI - NFA.

I am excited about that. My read on it is that it's the most important thing the factory has made. Version 3 will look in 2 Monte Carlo runs per bar - middle and last 10%(whatever is needed to complete the run). Symbols are so volatile that it's active to make a trade decision. Can't wait to explore this. It's real edge.

@LDUnbreakable Looks good.. 💯

🚀 Just shipped the FIRST Dynamic Risk Assessment v2 for ThinkOrSwim. Real Monte Carlo P(SL) + embedded HMM 8-regime engine + 10-mode adaptive Laguerre RSI (Lyapunov & Orbital gamma included) + self-learning feedback that actually tunes stops, targets & confluence live. No more static ATR guesses. Every bar delivers: • Probabilistic risk score • Regime-adjusted position sizing • Adaptive stop & target levels • Built-in performance analytics /ES 5-min example below. This is next-level for TOS. These indicators will soon be available exclusively to MarketFragments subscribers via secure per-trader plugins (full power + full IP protection). marketfragments.com

@NovumMarkets I saw the market regime stuff. I too work heavily with market regimes as a foundation to trade indicators and dynamic risk analysis. Ever want to bounce ideas back and forth, hit me up. mi casa su casa sort of thing

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