The Leuthold Group

We have been active asset allocators for about four decades. Our outlook is long term, yet we continually evaluate the market's underlying health and make changes as needed. $LCR Leuthold Core ETF $LST Select Industries ETF $LCORX Leuthold Core Fund #funds" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">funds.leutholdgroup.com/#funds

The @LeutholdGroup found that in the 15 oil price spikes they identified, only one coincided with a bear market: 2002. Average return for the S&P 500 across all periods (whilst oil is spiking) is +10% ... March 2026 is marked by the green square.

Measured from the first day of a major oil price spike, $SPX forward return for 3-, 6-, and 12-mos are also surprisingly favorable. The 3- and 6-mo periods’ avg. gain was ~1% per month, and an astounding +17.6% over the next year. #Oil $XLE $XOM $CVX $CL_F

Nvidia’s weight in $SPY has slimmed down from a mind-boggling 8.5% to a still incredible 7.32%. Its streak of nine consecutive months with a heft greater than 7% is matched only by $AAPL 's run-up in 2023. $NVDA #Mag7

It has been rough sledding for our “4% Club” contingent over the last 4 months. Microsoft lost 24%—a $930 billion plunge in mkt cap (roughly one Berkshire Hathaway or three Coca-Colas). $MSFT ended Feb. w/ an $SPY weight of < 5% for the first time since Jan-2020. $BRK $KO

If the #SP500 retreats to a more conventional concentration scheme, it would be a big boost for active investors. Yet, a sharp re-rating of the mega-cap giants, which have generated vast paper wealth and very real spending, could spell disaster for the economy.

In Feb. $SPY saw its fourth major dip in concentration since the mega-cap Tech surge began. Yet, the top 5 stocks still account for 28% of the index, while the bottom 300 make up 13%. Before 2020, the bottom 60% typically dominated the top 1%. #StockMarket #Investing #Mag7

Small cap underperformance...long and relentless...one of these days gonna be a face ripper! via @LeutholdGroup

As far as railroads and trucking companies, Swenson says they suffer from the fact that “their fundamentals are more impaired and valuations look less attractive.” Based on our quantitatively-driven analysis, "deteriorating profitability and negative earnings revisions” make truckers especially unappealing.

Leuthold's Greg Swenson cited by @LaMonicaBuzz @barronsonline “While Transports are often discussed as a single industry, dispersion beneath the surface is elevated.” Dow Transport Index Is Sizzling. Stick With Planes, Not Trucks and Trains. shorturl.at/AnUKF #paywall (may apply) #DJTransports

Leuthold's Greg Swenson cited by @barronsonline “While Transports are often discussed as a single industry, dispersion beneath the surface is elevated.” Dow Transport Index Is Sizzling. Stick With Planes, Not Trucks and Trains. shorturl.at/AnUKF #paywall may apply

Chun Wang of @leutholdgroup on why "the biggest risk to the economy is the stock market itself." @ToddRosenbluth of @Vetta_Fi makes $FESM his #ETFoftheWeek; Jonathan Smucker of Marietta Invstmt talks macro-->thematic-->bottoms-up stock investing in the #MoneyLifeMarketCall.

As of 4Q25, S&P 500 Normalized Earnings sit in the 10th decile, marking them among the priciest in history, based on figures from 1926 to date and from 1957 forward. Could this indicate a "new era" or is it unsustainable? $SPY #StockMarket #Investing #Valuations

Poor results in January from MSFT (-11%), AAPL (-5%), and Broadcom (-4%) dragged down the once bulletproof Top 10.

Equal-Wgt $SPY had best month vs S&P 500 Top-10 Index since March 2025. The avg $SPY stock has outdone the Top 10 for 3 mos running (by 8.5%). If this is the start of a fortune reversal for smalls, there is ample runway. Since 12/31/22: S&P 500 Top 10 +186%; EW SPY +48%. $RSP

In recent history, only the Russell 2000’s +6% lead over the S&P 500 in Jan. 2021 has been better. Perhaps more notably, this marks only the tenth January win for small caps in the last 25 years.

A January small-cap bounce is a well-known market anomaly, but it's been a no-show for most of the last decade. This year, it was in flourishing—until late January, when smalls gave back a large chunk. Still $RUT's +4% advantage over $SPY was its best January since 2023.

After collapsing since 2023, the DJ Transportation Index is suddenly on a tear, breaking to new highs and well-off R/S lows. This newfound vigor could signal broadening of stock leadership and more upside for equities overall. $DJT #StockTrends

@valharis The comparison is specifically with the S&P 500 Growth Index. Not all funds categorized by Morningstar as Large Cap Growth use the S&P 500 Growth Index as their benchmark.

@LeutholdGroup How can a passive fund be overweight?🤔

S&P 500 Growth Index: Annual style-index rebalancing has further exacerbated its top-heavy concentration. Tech and Communications Services account for 65% of the total weight. If you count the "Mag 7" from Discretionary, Tech Titans account for 71% of the index. #GrowthStocks

Among the Top 10 stocks in the S&P 500 Growth Index, only Berkshire Hathaway and Lilly stand apart from the dominant theme. Investing in this index is a clear bet that mega-cap Tech and AI/cloud-computing will maintain their leadership in 2026. #TechTrends $NVDA $AAPL $MSFT $LLY