Alex Barrow

1/ Druckenmiller's first mentor, Speros Drelles, would often tell him that "60 million Frenchman can't be wrong." Here's a thread on what that means and how to know when you should listen to or ignore the "Frenchman" (market)...

'America has lost control of its own foreign policy.' Let it sink…

Two things: -US plan to take Kharg will only be feasible after another "month" of bombing. -the idea is to force Iran to capitulate by using Kharg as a bargaining chip; I have a pretty strong gut feeling that's not going to work. axios.com/2026/03/20/ira…

The pattern of poor planning, one-dimensional decision-making, shifting priorities, and under-resourced, ill-equipped execution for regime change and Strait of Hormuz vessel safety concerns etc raises the probability of policy-driven tail risks. Below is one. Each day now passing, markets will increasingly focused on such long-duration tail risks, not a TACO Goldilocks with the subsequent resumption of all pre-war transits.

Again: the key to understanding the second Trump term is Jared Kushner.

This is probably the most important article of the month: an op-ed by Oman's Foreign Minister, who mediated the talks between the U.S. and Iran, in which he writes that the U.S. "has lost control of its foreign policy" to Israel. He repeats that a deal was possible as an outcome of the talks (something confirmed by the UK's National Security Advisor, who also attended: x.com/i/status/20341…) and that the military strike by the U.S. and Israel was "a shock." Interestingly, given he is one of Iran's neighbors and given that Oman has been struck multiple times by Iran since the war began (en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Iran…), he writes that "Iran’s retaliation against what it claims are American targets on the territory of its neighbours was an inevitable result" of the U.S.-Israeli attack. He describes it as "probably the only rational option available to the Iranian leadership." He says the war "endangers" the region's entire "economic model in which global sport, tourism, aviation and technology were to play an important role." He adds that "if this had not been anticipated by the architects of this war, that was surely a grave miscalculation." But, he adds, the "greatest miscalculation" of all for the U.S. "was allowing itself to be drawn into this war in the first place." In his view this was the doing of "Israel’s leadership" who "persuaded America that Iran had been so weakened by sanctions, internal divisions and the American-Israeli bombings of its nuclear sites last June, that an unconditional surrender would swiftly follow the initial assault and the assassination of the supreme leader." Obviously, this proved completely wrong, and the U.S. is now in a quagmire. He says that, given this, "America’s friends have a responsibility to tell the truth," which is that "there are two parties to this war who have nothing to gain from it," namely "Iran and America." He says that all of the U.S. interests in the region (end to nuclear proliferation, secure energy supply chains, investment opportunities) are "best achieved with Iran at peace." As he writes, "this is an uncomfortable truth to tell, because it involves indicating the extent to which America has lost control of its own foreign policy. But it must be told." He then proposes a couple of paths to get back to the negotiating table, although he recognizes how difficult it would be for Iran "to return to dialogue with an administration that twice switched abruptly from talks to bombing and assassination." That's perhaps the most profound damage Trump did during this entire episode: the complete discrediting of diplomacy. If Iran was taught anything, it is: don't negotiate with the U.S., it's a trap that will literally kill you. The great irony of the man who sold himself as a dealmaker is that he taught the world one thing: don't make deals with my country. Link to the article: economist.com/by-invitation/…

If it was an attempt to escalate to de-escalate, Iran has showed that it has escalation dominance (as it believes it has nothing to lose in a scorched earth strategy hitting oil and gas assets). Trump is now trying to de-escalate.

Any fifth-grader in the Middle East understands the basic equation: if Israel strikes Iranian energy infrastructure, Iran will retaliate by targeting the energy facilities of GCC countries. This raises the global economic cost dramatically. Israel is well aware of this dynamic. By hitting Iran's energy sites, it effectively pressures—or even forces—the GCC countries to get involved in the war against Iran. Even if they do not participate, their infrastructure becomes vulnerable and weakened. In either scenario, Israel benefits: the GCC either joins the fight against Iran or suffers serious damage, reducing their regional influence and economic power. It's a win-win for Israel.

The "shoulds" and "need tos" in your trading process are telling you something. Listen. They're pointing you away from your path.

President Erdoğan of Turkey argues that the war against Iran is not only about Israel's security: "A network that has seized power, that sees itself as superior to other human beings, is dragging our region step by step into catastrophe"

Altman admitted that transformer models have hit the wall. Most improvements in the last 9 months are attributable more to the tooling around the model rather than the models themselves. In other words, this technology is rapidly maturing with no signs of another leap.

The bond market is getting twitchy. Over the past 20 years, when credit spreads blew out but the S&P 500 wasn't even beyond a pullback yet, it was 3-for-3 in bear markets. h/t @sentimentrader

JUST IN 🔴 President Trump is preparing a major operation to secure the Strait of Hormuz that could last several weeks, an Israeli source told Kan News. Israel is expected to increase activity in the area as well. This might get interesting.

Why is it so hard for US politicians to "rule anything in or out" when it comes to US troops on the ground in the Iran War? It's not that hard, folks. The answer is 100% 'no.' Look at the topographical map below and note the virtually impregnable *series* of mountain ranges along the entire Western side of the country. Note, too, the green, level terrain of Iraq to the west, and realize that when I was part of the US invasion force into Iraq in 1991 (and the US coalition in 2003), we were able to drive into Iraq from friendly countries, over level terrain, where the defending force had nowhere to hide or defend from. Iran, in contrast, is built for defense. We simply do not have the number of troops in our entire ground forces that could be mustered to make such an attack, and even if we foolishly did order them in, they would be defeated in the many mountainous ridges and valleys that give decisive advantage to the defending force. In short, yes, reject any idea of a ground invasion of Iran. It would be suicidal, and on par with Hitler's fatal decision to invade the USSR in September 1941. It would result in the destruction of the American empire.

One diplomat with knowledge of the talks said: “We regarded Witkoff and Kushner as Israeli assets that dragged a president into a war he wants to get out of.” theguardian.com/world/2026/mar…

Great overview as usual ! 🙏👊 In all fairness, I am still amazed at what you provide, and wish I could have had this when I was starting my career! :)

@MacroNarrator Thanks @MacroNarrator, appreciate it brother!

From the AAII Sentiment Survey: Cash Allocations is at 14.19%. Investors are holding the least cash in 4 years. This happened 3 times in the past 20 years: late-2017, Jan 2020, late-2021. Each case preceded significant market volatility and losses for $SPX

When people joke about this I’m reminded of when I was told the President was on a “need to know basis.”

After much reflection, I have decided to resign from my position as Director of the National Counterterrorism Center, effective today. I cannot in good conscience support the ongoing war in Iran. Iran posed no imminent threat to our nation, and it is clear that we started this war due to pressure from Israel and its powerful American lobby. It has been an honor serving under @POTUS and @DNIGabbard and leading the professionals at NCTC. May God bless America.

Further ominous developments today. For first time, Iran successfully targeted oil/gas production facilities (rather than refining, terminals and storage): Oil and gas field in the UAE (Shah) hit Oil field in Iraq (Majnoon) attacked Plus Saudi Arabia saw large drone swarms