๐Œ๐ˆ๐‚๐‡๐€๐„๐‹ ๐Ž๐‹๐ˆ๐๐‡๐€๐๐“

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๐Œ๐ˆ๐‚๐‡๐€๐„๐‹ ๐Ž๐‹๐ˆ๐๐‡๐€๐๐“ banner
๐Œ๐ˆ๐‚๐‡๐€๐„๐‹ ๐Ž๐‹๐ˆ๐๐‡๐€๐๐“

๐Œ๐ˆ๐‚๐‡๐€๐„๐‹ ๐Ž๐‹๐ˆ๐๐‡๐€๐๐“

@MichaelOliphant

๐Ÿ‘๏ธโ€๐Ÿ—จ๏ธ Authentic Commentary on the Political Stories Trending on X ๐Ÿ“… Live Breakdowns: Mon / Wed / Fri at 8 AM MT. Turn On Notifications ๐Ÿ””

Beigetreten Kasฤฑm 2022
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๐Œ๐ˆ๐‚๐‡๐€๐„๐‹ ๐Ž๐‹๐ˆ๐๐‡๐€๐๐“
Welcome to my page ๐Ÿ‘๏ธโ€๐Ÿ—จ๏ธ I go live every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday at 8:00 AM Mountain Time to talk about whatever is trending on X no script, no filter, just real conversation. I started the America First Movement for one simple reason: to build a community of people who still believe in the founding principles of this country meritocracy, self-governance, capitalism, and Judeo-Christian values. Weโ€™re under attack from those who want to tear those things down. The way we push back is through: โ€ข Culture โ€” because it shapes everything else โ€ข Community โ€” because divided weโ€™re weak, united weโ€™re unstoppable โ€ข Unity โ€” because thatโ€™s where real leverage comes from This isnโ€™t about perfection or agreeing on everything. Itโ€™s about good people coming together, having honest dialogue, and working toward a better future for America. If that resonates with you, youโ€™re in the right place. Join the conversation:. โ†’ America First Community on X โ†’ America First Movement Discord (link in bio / comments) Drop a comment and tell me why youโ€™re here. Looking forward to building with you. Michael Oliphant ๐Ÿ‘๏ธโ€๐Ÿ—จ๏ธ
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Casey | Trade Tracs
Casey | Trade Tracs@CaseyVSilverยท
๐Ÿ”Ÿ Final thought The market has shifted from listening to Fed speakers to listening to war briefings. In a U.S.โ€“Iran shooting environment, every candle is a referendum on how far this escalates.
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Casey | Trade Tracs
Casey | Trade Tracs@CaseyVSilverยท
8๏ธโƒฃ Volatility and the โ€œSunday Scariesโ€ trade ๐Ÿ˜ฌ๐Ÿ“‰ History says: initial shocks often bring an overnight spike in futures, oil gaps higher, and equity indices sell off 1โ€“2% with volatility jumping. From there, path depends on whether markets see a quick, contained campaign or a prolonged energy and shipping war. Tools: Volatility: $VIXY $UVXY Broad hedges: $SPXS $SDS
Casey | Trade Tracs tweet media
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Casey | Trade Tracs
Casey | Trade Tracs@CaseyVSilverยท
7๏ธโƒฃ Second-order plays: cyber, energy security, and defense tech ๐Ÿง ๐Ÿ›ฐ๏ธ Modern conflict isnโ€™t just bombs and barrels โ€” itโ€™s drones, cyber, ISR, and comms. If this escalates into a longer campaign, expect more attention on cyber defense, satellite networks, and secure infrastructure. Watch: Cybersecurity: $CRWD $PANW $FTNT (critical infra defense) Defense tech & space: $LMT $NOC $RTX $LHX $PL
Casey | Trade Tracs tweet media
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Casey | Trade Tracs
Casey | Trade Tracs@CaseyVSilverยท
6๏ธโƒฃ Tech and โ€œMagnificent 7โ€: from darlings to ATM? ๐Ÿค–๐Ÿ“‰ In prior waves of this conflict, large-cap tech and the Mag 7 saw selling as investors raised cash and rotated into safety and hard assets. If oil spikes and yields swing, expensive growth can be the first source of funds โ€” even if fundamentals havenโ€™t changed. Watch for pressure / opportunity: Big tech: $AAPL $MSFT $GOOGL $AMZN $META $NVDA $TSLA
Casey | Trade Tracs tweet media
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Casey | Trade Tracs
Casey | Trade Tracs@CaseyVSilverยท
5๏ธโƒฃ Travel, airlines, and shipping: collateral damage โœˆ๏ธ๐Ÿšข Higher oil + higher geopolitical risk = a double whammy for travel and transport. Fuel costs rise, insurance premiums jump, and any hint of attacks near shipping lanes or regional hubs pressures earnings expectations. Watch potential losers: Airlines: $DAL $AAL $UAL $LUV Cruise & travel: $CCL $RCL $BKNG $ABNB Shipping: $ZIM $MATX $EGLE (headline-sensitive)
Casey | Trade Tracs tweet media
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Casey | Trade Tracs
Casey | Trade Tracs@CaseyVSilverยท
4๏ธโƒฃ Gold, bonds, and the โ€œfear tradeโ€ ๐Ÿช™๐Ÿ“‰ When headlines say strikes and retaliation, algos flip into risk-off: sell cyclicals, buy safety. That usually means: gold up, Treasuries bid, dollar and yen favored; high beta and small caps get hit first. Watch: Gold miners: $GDX $GDXJ $NEM $AEM $AGI Silver: $SIL $PAAS Duration plays: $TLT $IEF
Casey | Trade Tracs tweet media
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Casey | Trade Tracs
Casey | Trade Tracs@CaseyVSilverยท
3๏ธโƒฃ Defense contractors: war orders, not whispers ๐Ÿ’ฃ Actual strikes and sustained operations mean real munitions consumption and resupply, not just tensions. Markets tend to re-rate defense when it becomes clear that inventories are being drained and replacement contracts are inevitable. Watch: Prime contractors: $LMT $RTX $NOC $GD Tactical & missiles: $LMT $RTX Aerospace & logistics: $BA $LHX
Casey | Trade Tracs tweet media
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Casey | Trade Tracs
Casey | Trade Tracs@CaseyVSilverยท
2๏ธโƒฃ First-order move: energy ๐Ÿšข๐Ÿ›ข๏ธ This is an oil story first. Every missile over the Gulf adds a war premium to crude as traders price in disruption risks around Iran and the Strait of Hormuz. Brent has already shot above 80โ€“100 in prior phases of this conflict, and similar spikes are back on the table if supply is hit again. Watch: Integrated majors: $XOM $CVX $SHEL $BP ๐Ÿ›ข๏ธ U.S. shale & upstream: $EOG $PXD $FANG $OXY Oil services & drillers: $SLB $HAL $RIG
Casey | Trade Tracs tweet media
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Casey | Trade Tracs
Casey | Trade Tracs@CaseyVSilverยท
9๏ธโƒฃ Traders vs. investors: how to think about it ๐Ÿง  Short term, this is flows, not fundamentals: rotations into energy, defense, gold, and out of cyclicals/travel/high beta. Long term, market impact will track how long the campaign lasts, whether supply actually leaves the market, and how far the conflict spreads regionally. For traders: Fade extreme gaps when volatility gets absurd. Respect headline risk and position sizing. For investors: Donโ€™t chase what already repriced; focus on balance sheets and durable cash flows.
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Casey | Trade Tracs
Casey | Trade Tracs@CaseyVSilverยท
1๏ธโƒฃ WAR PREMIUM IS BACK โ€” HOW THE NEW U.S. STRIKES ON IRAN COULD SHOCK MARKETS TODAY โš ๏ธ๐Ÿ“ˆ The U.S. has resumed major combat operations against Iran, with fresh strikes hitting multiple targets and talks stalling again. When generals take over the narrative, markets stop trading earnings and start trading geopolitical risk. Follow my breakdown ๐Ÿ‘‡
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Purp
Purp@PurpTurt888ยท
@MichaelOliphant Doublespeak. Youve in your own word said Austin wasnโ€™t threatened. four boys approached him. Now I donโ€™t know if you know how quickly your life can change, even when no weapon is involved. People die and sustain life altering injuries in fist fights.
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๐Ÿ‘จ๐Ÿผโ€๐ŸŽ“ A few weeks ago, Austin Metcalfโ€™s twin brother walked across the stage to accept his brotherโ€™s diploma. That shouldโ€™ve been Austin up there. Instead, his brother had to do it for both of them. All because some punk decided stabbing a kid in the heart was the answer to being asked to leave a tent. This is what real loss looks like. Not the fake outrage and race-baiting weโ€™ve seen from the other side. Austinโ€™s family is living with a hole that will never be filled. Justice was served. But it doesnโ€™t bring him back.
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Harry Pater
Harry Pater@HarryPater62ยท
@DeporttheFilth It's Northern-Ireland my friend. That is a totally different country from the republic of Ireland
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Nick Sortor
Nick Sortor@nicksortorยท
๐Ÿšจ WATCH: Karmelo Anthonyโ€™s grandmother riles up the crowd by REPEATEDLY screaming โ€œRACIST, BIASED, PREJUDICEDโ€ as she left the courthouse โ€œThey sent a MESSAGE that a white person can hit a black boy and get away with it! They can do whatever the Fโ€”K they want!โ€ This entire family is disgusting. Itโ€™s pretty clear where Karmelo learned to behave the way he did.
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Purp
Purp@PurpTurt888ยท
@MichaelOliphant Itโ€™s OK to teach your kids to be confident, to speak their mind, to stand firm in the face of confrontation. But it is also important to teach them how to de-escalate. Especially young men. You better put on some Kenny Rogers and teach them one of life most valuable lessons
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We can agree to disagree on the facts. Austin Metcalf wasnโ€™t the problem here, he asked someone to leave a tent at a school event and got stabbed in the heart for it. Whatโ€™s actually on full display is how violent certain segments of Black culture have become. Black Americans make up roughly 13-14% of the U.S. population, yet Black males (around 6-7% of the overall population) account for approximately 50% of murder offenders according to FBI data year after year. Thatโ€™s not random. Itโ€™s driven by cultural factors: fatherless homes (over 70% of Black children born out of wedlock), glorification of violence and disrespect in certain music and media, and a refusal to hold people accountable for their actions. This isnโ€™t about one incident. Itโ€™s a pattern where personal responsibility gets replaced with excuses, and the result is more dead kids like Austin. The culture needs to change, not the facts.
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Purp
Purp@PurpTurt888ยท
@MichaelOliphant We can agree to disagree. He was an unruly child, and a bully. Had he gone through the right channels, he wouldnโ€™t have been in that situation. They were emboldened, by each other, and by what they see online to approach a stranger. perhaps the next Austin will think twice n live
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๐Ÿšจ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง ABC is calling the Belfast protests a reaction to the arrest of a โ€œSudanese asylum seeker who allegedly attacked another person with a knife.โ€ That โ€œalleged attackโ€ was a brutal attempt beheading caught on video. And instead of addressing the violence that sparked the outrage, officials are just begging everyone to stay calm while more of this keeps happening. This is what happens when governments import people from incompatible cultures and then act shocked when the native population finally pushes back. The real story isnโ€™t the protests.. itโ€™s the repeated failure to protect citizens from imported violence.
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ABC News
ABC News@ABCยท
Police and elected officials in Northern Ireland are calling for calm amid protests in Belfast that stemmed from the arrest of a Sudanese asylum seeker who allegedly attacked another person with a knife.
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Grok
Grok@grokยท
Right, the Irish flag ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ช signals the island's shared culture and geography, which is why it's commonly used even for events in Belfast. Northern Ireland remains part of the UK though, separate from the Republic. "Ireland" often gets used loosely for the whole island โ€” that's the shorthand at play here.
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Nick Sortor
Nick Sortor@nicksortorยท
๐Ÿšจ NOW: Police are using WATER CANNONS to push back people protesting a KNIFE ATTACK by a migrant in Belfast, Ireland I guarantee police would NOT use these if MIGRANTS were the ones rioting. Total double standard.
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Grok
Grok@grokยท
Northern Ireland is part of the United Kingdom, on the island of Ireland. The Republic of Ireland is the separate country to the south. Belfast is in Northern Ireland (UK), not the Republic. People often say โ€œIrelandโ€ for the whole island geographically โ€” thatโ€™s what the original post meant. โ€œIrishโ€ can refer to the island, culture, or people even if itโ€™s politically British. Clear as mud?
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@ABC Did you guys see this ๐Ÿ‘จ๐Ÿผโ€๐ŸŽ“ ๐Ÿ‘‡๐Ÿผ๐Ÿ‘‡๐Ÿผ๐Ÿ‘‡๐Ÿผ x.com/i/status/20648โ€ฆ
๐Œ๐ˆ๐‚๐‡๐€๐„๐‹ ๐Ž๐‹๐ˆ๐๐‡๐€๐๐“@MichaelOliphant

@dom_lucre Did you see this ๐Ÿ‘‡๐Ÿผ๐Ÿ‘จ๐Ÿผโ€๐ŸŽ“ x.com/i/status/20648โ€ฆ

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ABC News
ABC News@ABCยท
Karmelo Anthony, 19, faces a 35-year sentence after being indicted on first-degree murder in the 2025 fatal stabbing of 17-year-old Austin Metcalf in Frisco, Texas. ABC Newsโ€™ Matt Rivers reports on parole eligibility and GoFundMe fundraising tied to the case.
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