𝐌𝐈𝐂𝐇𝐀𝐄𝐋 𝐎𝐋𝐈𝐏𝐇𝐀𝐍𝐓

Welcome to my page 👁️‍🗨️ I go live every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday at 8:00 AM Mountain Time to talk about whatever is trending on X no script, no filter, just real conversation. I started the America First Movement for one simple reason: to build a community of people who still believe in the founding principles of this country meritocracy, self-governance, capitalism, and Judeo-Christian values. We’re under attack from those who want to tear those things down. The way we push back is through: • Culture — because it shapes everything else • Community — because divided we’re weak, united we’re unstoppable • Unity — because that’s where real leverage comes from This isn’t about perfection or agreeing on everything. It’s about good people coming together, having honest dialogue, and working toward a better future for America. If that resonates with you, you’re in the right place. Join the conversation:. → America First Community on X → America First Movement Discord (link in bio / comments) Drop a comment and tell me why you’re here. Looking forward to building with you. Michael Oliphant 👁️‍🗨️

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🔟 Final thought The market has shifted from listening to Fed speakers to listening to war briefings. In a U.S.–Iran shooting environment, every candle is a referendum on how far this escalates.

8️⃣ Volatility and the “Sunday Scaries” trade 😬📉 History says: initial shocks often bring an overnight spike in futures, oil gaps higher, and equity indices sell off 1–2% with volatility jumping. From there, path depends on whether markets see a quick, contained campaign or a prolonged energy and shipping war. Tools: Volatility: $VIXY $UVXY Broad hedges: $SPXS $SDS

7️⃣ Second-order plays: cyber, energy security, and defense tech 🧠🛰️ Modern conflict isn’t just bombs and barrels — it’s drones, cyber, ISR, and comms. If this escalates into a longer campaign, expect more attention on cyber defense, satellite networks, and secure infrastructure. Watch: Cybersecurity: $CRWD $PANW $FTNT (critical infra defense) Defense tech & space: $LMT $NOC $RTX $LHX $PL

6️⃣ Tech and “Magnificent 7”: from darlings to ATM? 🤖📉 In prior waves of this conflict, large-cap tech and the Mag 7 saw selling as investors raised cash and rotated into safety and hard assets. If oil spikes and yields swing, expensive growth can be the first source of funds — even if fundamentals haven’t changed. Watch for pressure / opportunity: Big tech: $AAPL $MSFT $GOOGL $AMZN $META $NVDA $TSLA

5️⃣ Travel, airlines, and shipping: collateral damage ✈️🚢 Higher oil + higher geopolitical risk = a double whammy for travel and transport. Fuel costs rise, insurance premiums jump, and any hint of attacks near shipping lanes or regional hubs pressures earnings expectations. Watch potential losers: Airlines: $DAL $AAL $UAL $LUV Cruise & travel: $CCL $RCL $BKNG $ABNB Shipping: $ZIM $MATX $EGLE (headline-sensitive)

4️⃣ Gold, bonds, and the “fear trade” 🪙📉 When headlines say strikes and retaliation, algos flip into risk-off: sell cyclicals, buy safety. That usually means: gold up, Treasuries bid, dollar and yen favored; high beta and small caps get hit first. Watch: Gold miners: $GDX $GDXJ $NEM $AEM $AGI Silver: $SIL $PAAS Duration plays: $TLT $IEF

3️⃣ Defense contractors: war orders, not whispers 💣 Actual strikes and sustained operations mean real munitions consumption and resupply, not just tensions. Markets tend to re-rate defense when it becomes clear that inventories are being drained and replacement contracts are inevitable. Watch: Prime contractors: $LMT $RTX $NOC $GD Tactical & missiles: $LMT $RTX Aerospace & logistics: $BA $LHX

2️⃣ First-order move: energy 🚢🛢️ This is an oil story first. Every missile over the Gulf adds a war premium to crude as traders price in disruption risks around Iran and the Strait of Hormuz. Brent has already shot above 80–100 in prior phases of this conflict, and similar spikes are back on the table if supply is hit again. Watch: Integrated majors: $XOM $CVX $SHEL $BP 🛢️ U.S. shale & upstream: $EOG $PXD $FANG $OXY Oil services & drillers: $SLB $HAL $RIG

9️⃣ Traders vs. investors: how to think about it 🧠 Short term, this is flows, not fundamentals: rotations into energy, defense, gold, and out of cyclicals/travel/high beta. Long term, market impact will track how long the campaign lasts, whether supply actually leaves the market, and how far the conflict spreads regionally. For traders: Fade extreme gaps when volatility gets absurd. Respect headline risk and position sizing. For investors: Don’t chase what already repriced; focus on balance sheets and durable cash flows.

1️⃣ WAR PREMIUM IS BACK — HOW THE NEW U.S. STRIKES ON IRAN COULD SHOCK MARKETS TODAY ⚠️📈 The U.S. has resumed major combat operations against Iran, with fresh strikes hitting multiple targets and talks stalling again. When generals take over the narrative, markets stop trading earnings and start trading geopolitical risk. Follow my breakdown 👇

@PurpTurt888 His life wasn't in danger.

@MichaelOliphant Doublespeak. Youve in your own word said Austin wasn’t threatened. four boys approached him. Now I don’t know if you know how quickly your life can change, even when no weapon is involved. People die and sustain life altering injuries in fist fights.

👨🏼‍🎓 A few weeks ago, Austin Metcalf’s twin brother walked across the stage to accept his brother’s diploma. That should’ve been Austin up there. Instead, his brother had to do it for both of them. All because some punk decided stabbing a kid in the heart was the answer to being asked to leave a tent. This is what real loss looks like. Not the fake outrage and race-baiting we’ve seen from the other side. Austin’s family is living with a hole that will never be filled. Justice was served. But it doesn’t bring him back.

@HarryPater62 @DeporttheFilth Just like Scotland 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 I still fly the flag

@DeporttheFilth It's Northern-Ireland my friend. That is a totally different country from the republic of Ireland

@CJ9097 @nicksortor There's a lot of people who believe he was justified in stabbing him.

@MichaelOliphant @nicksortor Trash family.

🚨 WATCH: Karmelo Anthony’s grandmother riles up the crowd by REPEATEDLY screaming “RACIST, BIASED, PREJUDICED” as she left the courthouse “They sent a MESSAGE that a white person can hit a black boy and get away with it! They can do whatever the F—K they want!” This entire family is disgusting. It’s pretty clear where Karmelo learned to behave the way he did.

@PurpTurt888 Wow 😳... Stop while you're behind. The fact that you are justifying the murder of someone who's life wasn't threatened.. I just can't.

@MichaelOliphant It’s OK to teach your kids to be confident, to speak their mind, to stand firm in the face of confrontation. But it is also important to teach them how to de-escalate. Especially young men. You better put on some Kenny Rogers and teach them one of life most valuable lessons

We can agree to disagree on the facts. Austin Metcalf wasn’t the problem here, he asked someone to leave a tent at a school event and got stabbed in the heart for it. What’s actually on full display is how violent certain segments of Black culture have become. Black Americans make up roughly 13-14% of the U.S. population, yet Black males (around 6-7% of the overall population) account for approximately 50% of murder offenders according to FBI data year after year. That’s not random. It’s driven by cultural factors: fatherless homes (over 70% of Black children born out of wedlock), glorification of violence and disrespect in certain music and media, and a refusal to hold people accountable for their actions. This isn’t about one incident. It’s a pattern where personal responsibility gets replaced with excuses, and the result is more dead kids like Austin. The culture needs to change, not the facts.

@MichaelOliphant We can agree to disagree. He was an unruly child, and a bully. Had he gone through the right channels, he wouldn’t have been in that situation. They were emboldened, by each other, and by what they see online to approach a stranger. perhaps the next Austin will think twice n live

🚨🇬🇧 ABC is calling the Belfast protests a reaction to the arrest of a “Sudanese asylum seeker who allegedly attacked another person with a knife.” That “alleged attack” was a brutal attempt beheading caught on video. And instead of addressing the violence that sparked the outrage, officials are just begging everyone to stay calm while more of this keeps happening. This is what happens when governments import people from incompatible cultures and then act shocked when the native population finally pushes back. The real story isn’t the protests.. it’s the repeated failure to protect citizens from imported violence.

Police and elected officials in Northern Ireland are calling for calm amid protests in Belfast that stemmed from the arrest of a Sudanese asylum seeker who allegedly attacked another person with a knife.

@grok @Edward716646756 @nicksortor @CrimsonPKing It's super confusing

Right, the Irish flag 🇮🇪 signals the island's shared culture and geography, which is why it's commonly used even for events in Belfast. Northern Ireland remains part of the UK though, separate from the Republic. "Ireland" often gets used loosely for the whole island — that's the shorthand at play here.

🚨 NOW: Police are using WATER CANNONS to push back people protesting a KNIFE ATTACK by a migrant in Belfast, Ireland I guarantee police would NOT use these if MIGRANTS were the ones rioting. Total double standard.

@grok @Edward716646756 @nicksortor @CrimsonPKing It's because I posted the Irish flag 🇮🇪

Northern Ireland is part of the United Kingdom, on the island of Ireland. The Republic of Ireland is the separate country to the south. Belfast is in Northern Ireland (UK), not the Republic. People often say “Ireland” for the whole island geographically — that’s what the original post meant. “Irish” can refer to the island, culture, or people even if it’s politically British. Clear as mud?

@ABC Did you guys see this 👨🏼‍🎓 👇🏼👇🏼👇🏼 x.com/i/status/20648…

Karmelo Anthony, 19, faces a 35-year sentence after being indicted on first-degree murder in the 2025 fatal stabbing of 17-year-old Austin Metcalf in Frisco, Texas. ABC News’ Matt Rivers reports on parole eligibility and GoFundMe fundraising tied to the case.