Model Axiom

Trevor Rogers is on a steep decline, will that show on today's game against the #forthefaithful ? His numbers, for today's matchup: Today's K Line = 4.5 Ks Average Ks L10 = 3.6 Ks Over rate L10 = 37.5% Pitch Arsenal Advantage = 1/10 Looking at his numbers, it is easy to see how, even graphically, he hasnt gone over his Line and over our Axiom Expected since April!!! His last 30 calendar days (L5 games) are far from impressive: Avg Ks = 2.8 Ks Over rate = 0% Actual Ks vs Line = -1.5!! Axiom Projection = 4.23 Ks Actual Ks vs Axiom Projection = -1.43 In his L10 games, Trevor has been abusing the middle section of the Strike Zone, and the Padres LOVE getting on base in this zone. From a data standpoint, his Sinker will give him a hard time. Although he has only used it 14.9% of the time in his L10, Padres are hitting this 10.9% of the time, the most out of Trevor's arsenal We hope Trevor bounces back from this cold streak, we just don't see it happening today against the Padres...

Kevin Gausman is good, but is he over 6.5 Ks good? Today's numbers, at a glance: K line = 6.5 Ks Avg Ks L10 = 4.8 Ks Over rate L10 = 30% He is facing #repbx, who rank #5 in the K rank and he has a Pitch Arsenal Advantage of 7.7/10, but let's see if this will be enough for him to hit the over... As per Kevin's trend graph L10 (and as per our model), he has an Expected Ks of 5.42, a reliability of -.04 and a delta between Avg K Line vs Actual Ks and Actual Ks vs Axiom's Projection of -.7 and -.58 respectively The Yankees, when facing pitchers with a similar style as Kevin, have only allowed 6 or more Ks in 1 ocassion, out of the TOP-10 Similarity sample that our model ran. Kevin loves throwing the 4S in the middle zone, with a usage of 15.2% (one of his top 3 spots) and the Yankees are at his best in this zone, with an OBP of 8.6% in this middle area. If we reverse-engineer the instances in which Kevin has ACTUALLY gone over 6.5 Ks, we can see that, this season, he's only done it 4 times out of 14 The Matchup Lab is here, for you to find more games like this: modelaxiom.com/matchup-lab/s/… The #bluejays50 have an interesting matchup today with Kevin Gausman on the mound, let's see if he performs Best of Luck everyone!

Today we are taking a risky stance. Our Matchup-Lab pitcher for the day is Shane McClanahan for #RaysUp His line today is at 5.5 Ks, his Over Rate is far from great at 33.3% in his L10. Based off of this, not many would dare to lean towards the OVER... but this is where our model takes an edge. His Pitch Arsenal Advantage, according to our model, is at 10/10 vs #ReptheHalo , so lets take a deep-dive into this: Shane is facing the Angels, who are not very efficient (or smart) with their swings, ranking #1 in the league in K Rate. When the Angels have faced similar pitchers, they have allowed 6+ Ks in 8/10 matches (9/10 of those matches have been this season)!!!! As our model suggests, his PAA is 10/10 today, and rightfully so, we can clearly see how Shane loves abusing the Low-In zone, with 19.9% of usage, and the Angels, on their end, strikeout 9.3% of the time on this zone and only hit it 2.5% of the time. The Changeup will give him the most edge today in terms of Pitch-Type, why? he uses it 28.4% of the time and hitters strikeout 12% of the time under this Pitch-type. Feel free to discover more golden-nuggets like this one: modelaxiom.com/matchup-lab/s/… Best of Luck everyone!

Today, the numbers are pointing out to a hard game for Kyle Bradish, who is scheduled to start for the #BirdLand From the start, his recent numbers don't look that amazing: K line = 5.5 Ks Avg Ks L10 = 5.1 Ks Over Rate = 44.4% Pitch Arsenal Advantage (PAA) = 1/10 This is where his numbers start heading towards a particular direction... Historically, when he faces teams where he only has a PAA between 1-3, he has only had 6+ Ks TWICE Under these same conditions, his expected Ks drop to 4.35 Ks, his actual Ks to 5 Ks and his Avg line is 5 Ks as well... I wouldnt be surprised if his K line drops to 4.5 Ks for tonights game against the #TridentsUp Now, if we look at how similar pitchers as Kyle have performed against the Mariners, we can see a very similar pattern, where pitchers have only registered 6+ Ks in 2 ocassions out of the Top-10 similar and recent matches. The matchup lab is here: modelaxiom.com/matchup-lab/s/… Best of Luck everyone!