@BuBarrelBull Or there's a third option which is that the leadership of Iran becomes so dangerously weak that they cannot possibly stop an uprising of 90 million people
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OSINT_Strong
3K posts
OSINT_Strong
@OSINT_Strong
Intelligence analyst of 38 years.
SF, CA, USA Beigetreten Şubat 2026
1K Folgt87 Follower
In my view there’s basically two scenarios here.
The first is there’s a ceasefire. In that scenario, Iran de facto controls 1/5 of the world’s energy supply.
The second is multi trillion dollar ground invasion, which, by the way, might not work and could take a decade.
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OSINT_Strong retweetet
ما امشب در تهران جدی بودن مذاکرات را حس کردیم. یکجوری زد که کل تهران لرزید. حدود ساعت ۱بامداد، همزمان رفقای کرجی هم خبر دادند همان لحظه کرج هم به همان شدت لرزیده. یعنی مذاکرات واقعا سازنده بود. فقط نفهمیدم این همزمانی کرج و تهران بخاطر شدت انفجار بود یا واقعا همزمان هم تهران را زده و هم کرج را! درهرصورت هرچه بود، نشان از پیشبرد مذاکرات داشت.
#جاويدشاه 🇮🇷
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OSINT_Strong retweetet
And they just discovered that the Chinese-made versions of modern weapons don't actually work as well as the U.S.-made versions, and so the expected casualties from a war rose
And Iran being out of action weakens China even as it ties up the US
And they haven't finished the minimum viable invasion fleet yet
And they just realized merchant ships will chicken out if there's literally any shipping threat at all and Taiwan-Japan could blockade China as easily as China can blockade Taiwan
Iran suffering massive conventional defeat yet still holding the entire world to ransom is, uh, eye-opening for Taiwan's options
Noah Smith 🐇🇺🇸🇺🇦🇹🇼@Noahpinion
They just purged all their top generals. They're going to be rebuilding for a couple of years.
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@user986754231 @PahlaviReza @POTUS I would like to see the prisons attacked and opened by special forces
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ما مردم ایران
خواهان ورود نیروهای زمینی ارتش امریکا به خاک ایران
برای نجات هموطنان در بندمان
و انتقال قدرت به شاه قانونی ایران @PahlaviReza هستیم
@POTUS
#KingRezaPahlaviForIran
فارسی
Yes.
All Iran has left is basically terrorism and whatever missiles they hid in mountains.
Their conventional military has been wiped out. Their warships were easily sunk. America has total air superiority, which is why they’re doing strafing runs with the A-10 now.
And most importantly: Chinese missiles, drones, and air defenses have proven completely useless against US tech. Both in Iran and Venezuela. We basically just turned them off.
Every “victory” you’re citing from Iran is basically improvised guerilla resistance. Fair. But defending is easier than invading. And who would be the invading and defending force if China invaded Taiwan?
If China’s military tech fails in defensive uses, how do you think it would fair against the West in an offensive war? Literally no chance.
Both recent engagements have been a humiliation for Chinese and Russian tech. The consensus is pretty universal on this. Stop falling for slop propaganda from third worlders, lmao.
Get Rich or DEI trying@TBGamer9000
@VinceDaoTV The US can't even fucking stop missiles from Iran hitting Israel right now, can't control the straight of Hormuz, has their stockpile of interceptors being depleted (which, ironically, depends on Chinese suppleirs), etc. and you think the US can take on China?
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OSINT_Strong retweetet
I am Iranian.
I speak for my family, my friends, and tens of millions inside Iran who can't even access the internet.
We have bled for decades for this moment.
The Islamic regime is weak.
Change is within reach.
Do not stop.
Do not negotiate.
Do not let this moment slip away.
If this chance is lost, the regime will return even more brutal, more radical, and impossible to break.
It will become another North Korea ,only more ideological and more dangerous.
Seize this moment, and we will not only free Iran.
We will open the door to decades of peace and stability across the Middle East
This is bigger than Iran.
The world will live with the outcome.
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@SHELLYJACOBS If the United States were to use nuclear weapons against targets in Iran, it would turn the entire world against them.
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🇮🇷🏴☠️Iran’s Missile Cities Backfire: From Hidden Strongholds to Death Traps:
A large-scale joint U.S.-Israeli aerial campaign is systematically striking Iran’s extensive network of underground “missile cities”.
Israel has primarily targeted northern and central Iranian facilities, while U.S. forces, including B-2 stealth bombers, have struck many sites in the south and central regions.
The strikes have concentrated on entrances, ventilation shafts, and access portals, with the aim of trapping equipment and personnel inside or burying the facilities under rubble.
Iran’s underground “missile cities” were specifically engineered to withstand precisely this type of attack.
Many of these complexes include multiple redundant entrances and connecting side tunnels, enabling Iranian forces to shift operations to undamaged sections or rapidly clear the least-affected route even if one entrance is blocked or collapsed.
Minor to moderate blockages can typically be cleared sufficiently for limited operations within days.
However, severe collapses caused by repeated bunker-buster strikes may require weeks before full vehicle access is restored.
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OSINT_Strong retweetet
BREAKING: Iran says it could shut the vital Bab el-Mandeb Strait if attacks are carried out on its territory or islands.
Details include:
1. The Bab al-Mandeb Strait is a narrow passage linking the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and the Arabian Sea
2. ~12% of global seaborne oil passes through Bab al-Mandab
3. The Bab al-Mandeb Strait is the world’s 4th-largest shipping chokepoint
4. If both Hormuz and Mandeb are closed, total offline capacity could near 25 million barrels per day, or ~25% of global supply
We now await the US' response to Iran's "five conditions" for a ceasefire.
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@FinanceLancelot @Cappyarmy I'm pretty sure Iran has guided drones that could target moving ships.
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OSINT_Strong retweetet
So @Cappyarmy appears to confirm my theory that the U.S. Expeditionary Force will invade Qeshm Island instead of Kharg Island, to open the Strait of Hormuz.
Secure the airport, land heavy equipment, then invade the mainland, advancing both east & west along the coast of Iran.
Financelot@FinanceLancelot
I'm starting to think the U.S. is going to invade Qeshm Islandin Iran, more specifically Qeshm International Airport, instead of Kharg Island. There are basically no inhabitants and it's perfect for positioning a massive deployment of air defenses to protect the Strait of Hormuz
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OSINT_Strong retweetet
@homo_er3ctus Hitler said he wasn't interested in the welfare of the German people either.
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داکترین دفاع vs بقا
دفاع تعریف داره. دفاع باید مانع از صدمه دیدن طرف خودی شود. جمهوری اسلامی دفاع نمیکند. دوام میاورد. آنچه در جنگ دیدیم اینست که مهاجمان قادرند به صورت نامحدود زیرساخت و روساخت و شهرهای ایران رو مورد حمله قرار دهند و حتی کوچکتری هشدار و پناهگاه و پدافندی برای شهروندان ساخته نشده است. مانند پدری که خانواده را در دست مهاجمان رها کرده در حال خط انداختن بر ماشینتان است.
راهبرد موشکی بقاء حاکمیت است و تلفات شهری و انسانی و مادی «ایران» و مردمانش در معادله نظام جایگاهی ندارد و حتی حکومت از تلفات انسانی گسترده استقبال هم میکند.
و این رفتار کاملا منطق بر دید یک نیروی اشغالگر بیگانه است. نیرویی که کوچکترین اهمیتی به زیست مردم نمیدهد.
فارسی
Special Forces are not for a large scale invasion but surgical strikes.
جرالد@Gerald2026WLF
💣 بمب خبری 💣 یک افسر سابق سیا تأیید کرد که ایالات متحده در حال اعزام زبدهترین سربازهای خود (جوخههای کشتار) به خاورمیانه است. نیروی دلتا، تیم ششم سیل و هنگ هفتاد و پنجم تکاوران، همگی همین الان در حال حرکت به سمت مواضع خود هستند. آنها در حال آماده شدن برای یک تهاجم زمینی گسترده هستند.
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OSINT_Strong retweetet
The entrances to the regime's massive underground "missile cities" are being bombed on a daily basis. It is (partially) effective, and only as long as we keep doing it.
The day after a ceasefire, all the entrances are reopened and they are fully functional again.
Isac@Isacb2021
@DrEliDavid @Andrheaar Missile cities: destroy their access. Pound every attempt to fix roads.
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OSINT_Strong retweetet
In Iran, there's a major development: Iranian sources report an unusual attack last night in the Karah Agagh region. According to reports, a building of the Revolutionary Guards containing numerous weapons was destroyed. Several members of the Revolutionary Guards were killed on the spot and other victims were recorded. Among the dead: Hossein Bahari, commander of Iran's missile unit.
25 MAR 2026 | 08:51 ET ET
SOURCE: 🇮🇱 Israel 🇮🇱 Unredacted 🇮🇱 (@isrjerjewppl)
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@MorEdge_Insight Then Iran has little to no oil exports for the next 3 years. And the price of oil will shoot through the roof.
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According to CNN, Iran has reinforced Kharg Island with troops, air defenses, and mines, preparing for a potential US ground operation.
US officials warn of high risks, including heavy casualties, due to layered defenses and recent deployments of Iranian MANPADs and anti-armor mines.
If that’s the case, how about dropping a few loads of napalm and turning the entire island to glass. Then let the Marines do their thing on the dust and rubble?
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@HaroldWren22 Unlike tepid European nations, India is not taking any crap
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This was always the problem with the Iranian Regime’s strategy of closing the strait: the rest of the world simply cannot do without oil and would fight back.
The moment President Trump said “ maybe we won’t reopen the strait it’s up to everybody else” is the exact moment the Regime strategy failed. India’s seven ships & ships from 28 more countries on the way are the proof.
Baba Banaras™@RealBababanaras
BREAKING: India has asserted that no permission is required for its vessels to transit the Strait of Hormuz, calling it an international passage. Meanwhile, the Indian Navy has deployed 7 warships near the Strait of Hormuz to safeguard India-bound ships. Message is clear.
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OSINT_Strong retweetet
The Iranian regime is walking straight into a U.S. trap by rejecting the proposal. Let me explain, if the U.S. sent in ground troops without a clear trigger, like Iran rejecting a 15-point ceasefire, the global backlash would tilt toward Iran. Trump knows that. He’s set it up so that if Iran refuses, he has the pretext to escalate to save the people of Iran, if it accepts, Washington still comes out ahead. Either way, the regime loses.
Open Source Intel@Osint613
BREAKING 🔴🔴 Iran State TV: Iran has rejected the U.S. 15-point plan.
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