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@OddsFirst_

Polymarket moves then the market moves. Subscribe and get your personal dashboard -- pick your tickers, get alerts when Polymarket moves against the market.

All Markets Beigetreten Nisan 2026
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OddsFirst
OddsFirst@OddsFirst_·
This is what your OddsFirst platform looks like. Pick your tickers. Get alerts when Polymarket moves against the market. Right now $IKA has a 19.3% gap -- the market says crash, Polymarket bets it goes back up. Someone is wrong. Subscribe here: oddsfirst.substack.com/subscribe
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OddsFirst
OddsFirst@OddsFirst_·
This is the part most people are missing. 3 US planes shot down today, Iran rejected ceasefire, oil at 2008 highs, and $BTC is still above 66K. Polymarket is building momentum at 70% odds it hits 70K by June. The market is telling you crypto does not care about this war the way everyone thinks it should.
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Na₿er
Na₿er@Tradernaber·
$BTC and $ETH literally holding higher prices than February no matter what trumps says, oil does or war moves.- $BTC to 80k and $ETH 2500-2700 is more realistic than most think.- After that positive news will increase momentum imo.-
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OddsFirst@OddsFirst_·
@QuintenFrancois The betting markets agree with you. Polymarket has 70% odds $BTC hits 70K by June even with 3 US planes shot down today and oil at 2008 highs. $BTC sitting at 66K barely flinching while everything around it is on fire. People selling here are going to feel this one later.
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Quinten | 048.eth
Quinten | 048.eth@QuintenFrancois·
Can’t believe people are still selling here. • Every indicator is flashing bottom signals • $BTC is still below its 2021 ATH • Sentiment is completely depressed This war will end. Relax.
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OddsFirst@OddsFirst_·
$XRP at $1.32 right now. Polymarket is building momentum to the upside on crypto -- 70% odds $BTC hits 70K by June. When BTC moves the whole market follows. Schwab just opened crypto trading this week too. If XRP holds that $1.30 floor while everything else is bleeding from the Iran war, that is a strong signal.
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EGRAG CRYPTO
EGRAG CRYPTO@egragcrypto·
#XRP – The RED Chart 🔴: It’s red… but it’s offering one of the best buying opportunities and upside potential for #XRP. 👉 Closing above $1.80 = invalidation of the falling wedge 👉Cross of the 2 red lines is coming = Bearish Otherwise: ▫️Bottom target: crystal clear → $0.83 ▫️Upper target: crystal clear → $8.30 ▫️The simplest 10X trade of your life. 👉Breaking below the ATLAS LINE… we are in serious trouble. Structure > Noise🗣️ONLY FEW 🧠
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OddsFirst@OddsFirst_·
Schwab just opened $BTC and $ETH trading this week. That 7% is about to jump fast. Polymarket is building momentum at 70% odds BTC hits 70K by June even with a war going on and oil at 2008 highs. The institutions are front-running the next wave of retail and they are not being subtle about it.
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Dom Kwok | EasyA
Dom Kwok | EasyA@dom_kwok·
only 7% of the world currently owns crypto. doesn’t take a gigabrain to know what happens when the rest of the 93% starts buying.
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OddsFirst@OddsFirst_·
@ww3mediaa Third plane today. F-15, A-10, now an F-16. That is over $200M in aircraft in a single day. Oil already at 2008 highs and Polymarket has 91% odds this keeps going with $109M behind it. If this pace continues the energy crisis gets a lot worse before it gets better.
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3. Dünya Savaşı
3. Dünya Savaşı@ww3mediaa·
🚨#SONDAKİKA İran, ABD’ye ait bir F-16 savaş uçağı daha düşürdü. -Tasnim
3. Dünya Savaşı tweet media3. Dünya Savaşı tweet media
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OddsFirst@OddsFirst_·
@PolymarketStory Update on this -- Iran just rejected the 48-hour ceasefire and a second plane got shot down today (A-10 Warthog). Oil exports from the Middle East dropped 63% last month. That $109M bet at 91% is looking more right by the hour. The market saw this coming before anyone else did.
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OddsFirst
OddsFirst@OddsFirst_·
@0xDr_Leo @unusual_whales And Polymarket is tracking all of it in real time. 35% recession odds and climbing, 91% odds US forces stay in Iran, oil exports from the Middle East down 63% last month. The betting markets are pricing in uncertainty that the stock market hasn't caught up to yet.
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Dr_Leo
Dr_Leo@0xDr_Leo·
@unusual_whales The most dangerous part isn’t even the NATO threat. It’s a president openly acting like Congress is optional.
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unusual_whales
unusual_whales@unusual_whales·
Trump on pulling out of NATO: "I don't need Congress for that decision"
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OddsFirst@OddsFirst_·
@unusual_whales NATO talk while 2 US planes got shot down in Iran today and oil exports from the Middle East just dropped 63%. Polymarket has 35% recession odds and climbing. The market is trying to figure out if this is posturing or real and every headline like this makes that 35% go higher.
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OddsFirst@OddsFirst_·
@KobeissiLetter 63% drop in Middle East oil exports and Iran just rejected the ceasefire today. Polymarket has $109M saying 91% odds US forces stay in Iran. Hormuz is not opening anytime soon. The betting markets priced this in weeks ago while everyone else kept saying it would blow over.
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The Kobeissi Letter
The Kobeissi Letter@KobeissiLetter·
We are now facing the biggest global energy crisis in history: Total oil product exports from the Middle East plunged -63% in March, or -4.8 million barrels per day, to ~2.8 million barrels per day. Of the remaining ~2.8 million barrels per day still being exported, ~1.1 million barrels per day, or 39%, is flowing through Saudi Arabia's Red Sea ports, bypassing the shut Strait of Hormuz. Jet fuel was hit the hardest, with exports plunging -85%, triggering flight cancellations and fuel shortages across Asia-Pacific. At the same time, LPG and naphtha exports dropped by -1.0 million barrels per day. Diesel, gasoline, and fuel oil exports also fell sharply, with declines ranging from -60% to -70%. The Strait of Hormuz crisis is in full-swing.
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OddsFirst@OddsFirst_·
@IamCryptoWolf $ETH at 2050 right now while everyone screams 1200. Polymarket is building momentum to the upside on crypto even with a war going on -- 70% odds $BTC hits 70K by June. If BTC goes, ETH follows. The crowd calling for 1200 is the same crowd that missed every rally this cycle.
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Wolf 🐺
Wolf 🐺@IamCryptoWolf·
Consensus is calling for $ETH to 1200s, but the 3D RSI tells a different story. Every touch of the lower trendline has led to strong bounces. I’m looking at 3200s as a base case. Give it time, and don’t be surprised by shakeouts toward 2000s designed to trap you.
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OddsFirst@OddsFirst_·
The Iran war costs section is the one to watch. Oil at 2008 highs, fertilizer crisis starting, and Polymarket has $109M saying 91% chance US forces stay in Iran. Meanwhile $BTC sitting at 66K barely moving while the betting markets have 70% odds it hits 70K by June. Someone is wrong about which direction this all goes.
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The All-In Podcast
The All-In Podcast@theallinpod·
SpaceX IPO, Iran War Fallout, Quantum Bitcoin Hack, The Space Opportunity -- SpaceX IPO: The biggest ever (by far!) -- The economic opportunity of space -- Incoming 2026 IPO explosion, the race to get out -- Iran War costs, fertilizer crisis, downstream impacts, messaging problems -- Quantum Bitcoin hack potential (0:00) Bestie intros! (0:12) SpaceX IPO, the economic opportunity of space: a new industrial frontier (21:00) 2026 IPO explosion, OpenAI down round? (36:33) Iran War costs, fertilizer crisis, downstream impacts (49:58) Trump's Iran messaging problems, Bondi out, why the US is in Iran (1:04:18) Quantum Bitcoin hack possibilities, how crypto should react
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OddsFirst@OddsFirst_·
@Cointelegraph MARA dumping $1.1B in $BTC while Polymarket has 70% odds BTC hits 70K by June. One of the biggest miners is selling into what the betting markets think is an uptrend. That is a massive gap between what insiders are doing and what the money says happens next.
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Cointelegraph
Cointelegraph@Cointelegraph·
🚨 JUST IN: MARA is laying off 15% of its workforce after selling $1.1B in Bitcoin, as the company pivots toward AI and energy infrastructure.
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OddsFirst@OddsFirst_·
And Iran just rejected the ceasefire so this is only getting more expensive. Polymarket has 91% odds US forces stay with $109M behind it. Meanwhile $BTC at 66K barely flinching while oil rips to 2008 highs. The money printing to fund this war is going to be insane for crypto long term.
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Ash Crypto
Ash Crypto@AshCrypto·
Iran has shot down 2 US planes today worth more than $150 million. In 2025 it took more than 15,000 middle-class people to pay $150 million in federal income taxes. The tax math ain’t mathing.
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OddsFirst@OddsFirst_·
@0hour1 2 US planes downed in a single day and now this. Polymarket has 91% odds US forces stay in Iran -- $109M behind that bet. Iran just rejected the ceasefire too. Oil at 2008 highs and climbing. This is not close to being over and the markets know it.
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0HOUR1
0HOUR1@0hour1·
Iran is hiding anti-aircraft weapons in neighborhoods. This is going to get bad now. This is the part where war shows its teeth.
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OddsFirst@OddsFirst_·
The money agrees with you. Polymarket has $109M behind 91% odds US forces stay in Iran. Oil already at 2008 highs and Iran just rejected the 48-hour ceasefire. If a ground push near Hormuz happens, oil goes parabolic and takes everything with it. The betting markets saw this coming weeks ago.
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Alex Jones
Alex Jones@RealAlexJones·
🚨RED ALERT! The Iranian Shoot Down of A US A-10 Warthog Is A Major Signal That Trump Is Preparing To Launch A Ground Invasion Near The Strait Of Hormuz.
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OddsFirst@OddsFirst_·
4 incidents in one day. This is escalating fast and the money is already moving. Oil at 2008 highs, gold ripping, $BTC holding 66K while everything else bleeds. Polymarket has $109M saying 91% US forces stay in Iran. Nobody is pricing in how bad this can get if Hormuz stays choked.
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BRICS News
BRICS News@BRICSinfo·
🇺🇸 US military incidents today: • F-15 fighter jet shot down. One crew member rescued, one still missing. • 2x HH-60W Jolly Green II rescue helicopters shot at by Iran, some wounded. • F-16 declared emergency over Iraq. • KC-135 Stratotanker declared emergency over Israel. • A-10 Warthog attack aircraft crashes into the Persian Gulf following strike, pilot rescued.
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OddsFirst@OddsFirst_·
@LauraLoomer The market is watching Hormuz closer than anything right now. Oil already at 2008 highs. Iran just rejected the 48-hour ceasefire and Polymarket has $109M saying 91% odds US forces stay. Every day the strait stays choked, gas prices climb and that hits everyone at the pump.
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Laura Loomer
Laura Loomer@LauraLoomer·
There are simple military solutions to opening the Strait of Hormuz. President Trump respects the Iranian people and is limiting collateral damage in his operation to defeat the terrorist Islamic regime’s military capacity. Sadly, you don’t win wars by limiting collateral damage, but it speaks to how kind of a heart President Trump has. Just like him giving Tulsi multiple chances over and over again to disappoint him is also a sign of his kind heart and overly forgiving nature. But, you see, President Trump doesn’t need to be so gracious and kind and considerate. He could open the strait in 1 hour if he gave the order to completely obliterate everything obstructing it. He could flatten Iran’s infrastructure with the snap of his fingers and a few phone calls. He should. Islamists don’t make deals. They only respond to brutal force. We don’t defeat the Islamic regime by holding hands and singing Kumbaya like you and Tulsi Gabbard want. “Aloha” will be returned with “Allahu Akbar” and a bang by these savages. Iranian infrastructure needs to be flattened and then we will be speaking the same language as these Muslim pedophile Mullahs.
Daniel Davis Deep Dive@DanielLDavis1

Thank you SOOO much, Laura, for shining a light on this issue so more people get the truth. The reality is, President Trump desperately needs the advice that Tulsi gives, that Joe Kent gave, that I would have provided – which would have kept America safe, powerful, and all of our troops alive. Unfortunately, he listens to people who agree with you, and that has us into a war we cannot win, has caused damage to our military, and death to our personnel, and has now harmed the global economy. There is no military solution to opening the Strait of Hormuz, which would never have been closed had it not been for the war of choice that President Trump made. And it is a black-and-white fact that he and secretary of war Hegseth are advocating war crimes, and likely have committed many. What you advocate is most assuredly not America first, it in fact *harms* America. The more the administration listens to your advice, the more damage it will suffer and harm inflicted on all of us, and the weaker our national security will become. Thank you for highlighting this issue, I am most grateful.

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OddsFirst@OddsFirst_·
@Polymarket Cutting TSA while 2 US planes just got shot down in Iran and oil is at 2008 highs. Meanwhile Polymarket has 91% odds US forces stay in Iran with $109M behind that bet. The priorities here are wild.
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Polymarket@Polymarket·
JUST IN: Trump proposes cutting TSA funding & privatizing some airport security operations.
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OddsFirst@OddsFirst_·
@Narjes_Rahmati @mb_ghalibaf Already seeing it play out. Oil at 2008 highs today. Polymarket has 35% odds of US recession in 2026 and that number keeps climbing. $109M in bets say 91% chance US forces stay in Iran. If Hormuz stays choked these recession odds are going way higher.
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محمدباقر قالیباف | MB Ghalibaf
What share of global oil, LNG, wheat, rice, and fertilizer shipments transits the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait? Which countries and companies account for the highest transit volumes through the strait? 🤔
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OddsFirst@OddsFirst_·
@beyond_broke Schwab just opened $BTC and $ETH trading this week. That is not a coincidence. Polymarket is building momentum at 70% odds BTC hits 70K by June even with a war going on. The banks see what the betting markets see -- this thing is going up regardless of what happens in Iran.
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Jake Claver, QFOP
Jake Claver, QFOP@beyond_broke·
The banks aren't adopting digital assets to be nice to crypto people They're doing it because the math is undeniable
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