Per Lindström 🇸🇪

My guess about Iran. The regime will stay. Trump doesn't care about democracy and the Iranian people, all he hopes for is a big oil deal, which he won't get. The US is not prepared to send in ground troops, he hopes for an uprising, but the uprising has already been crushed. ->

When this is over, the western part of NATO will never be the same. Spain, England, France and Italy have sold us out, as they too often have a history of doing. Eastern European nations are the heart of NATO. They spend money on defense, know how to fight and love the US. France particularly deserves fault and blame. From supporting China and Russia at the UN to denying Americans overflight rights, they’re doing what they’ve always done - showing weakness, while cutting deals with terrorists. (The reason the US has a Marine Corps and Navy is unlike France, we refused to pay a ransom to the Barbary Pirates. France is always happy to cut a deal.) Wars have unintended consequences as nations show their true colors. NATO will never be the same, and Western European weakness and acquiescence is the cause.

My message here clearly struck a nerve. A few friends from when I was press secretary, domestically and abroad, don’t like what I said. Instead of seeing how Western European nations must change, they just want to attack Trump. The reason it struck a nerve is because they recognize that this time NATO nations are being held to account. They know they’ve come up short for decades and by denying us overflight rights, they’ve gone too far. Americans are fed up, especially with France and Spain. Trump won’t stand for it and they know it. They now fear the consequences of their inaction. The UK, unlike its days under Thatcher or Blair, is wishy-washy. They’ve often been a good allie, but this time they want to sit it out and have it both ways. We can use their bases, but only for limited operations. At least the UK spends real money on defense. France, Spain, and Italy are another story. So too is Canada. None of these four contribute seriously to NATO. They’re laggards, trying to get away with it. Spain and France force our pilots to fly thousands of miles out of the way (I thought they didn’t like carbon footprints) en route to Iran. Eastern Europe is a different story. They spend more on defense and they understand power. They lived under Soviet domination and recognize weakness when they see it. They won’t be weak. Western European governments, especially France, are good at issuing communiques and statements. They enjoy hosting conferences. They love to ponder deeply. Getting them to act is another matter, unless it’s to purchase Russian LNG, which they still do. The world is changing. Out of this war will come a new group of younger nations that understand real power and the importance of strength. The UAE, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Israel and Eastern Europe will emerge stronger than ever. Western Europe will continue to fall behind. As for Trump, you don’t have to like him. He often says things none of his predecessors would say. But don’t underestimate the fact that US taxpayers are fed up with nations that don’t pull their weight, and then force our pilots to take risks and longer flights so we can rid the world from the menace that is Iran. Today’s Western European leaders would rather mollify Iran and pay them ransoms (trade) than support the US. Things are different today. We all know it. The UK, France, Spain and Italy (despite its Prime Minister) have earned the consequences that will unfold. They could have and should have supported us. Not as a NATO alliance. But as individual free nations. All we wanted was overflight rights and full access to airfields. They’ve made their choices. Soon, they’ll see the results.