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Posting projected odds for upcoming races based on DD betting in previous race. Using the whole set of DD probable payoffs, not just the will-pays. Posting mostly for graded stakes races with 7 or more betting interests and undercard races on biggest days.

@NYRABets: No Pk3 will-pays on your betting site for the Arkansas Derby. You had them for other stakes on the card and others have them for this race.

#OaklawnRacing 3/28/26 Race 13 - Arkansas Derby # Projected Odds 1 26.8 2 2.8 3 4.4 4 41.8 5 19.4 6 1.1 7 SCR 8 90.8 9 4.6

#GulfstreamPark 3/28/26 Race 14 - Florida Derby # Projected Odds 1 SCR 2 1.6 3 40.8 4 2.4 5 SCR 6 1.5 7 56.7 8 9.2 9 SCR

#OaklawnRacing 3/28/26 Race 11 - Oaklawn Mile # Projected Odds 1 10.2 2 4.8 3 17.8 4 4.7 5 2.0 6 SCR 7 2.1 8 14.2

#GulfstreamPark 3/28/26 Race 13 - Pan American # Projected Odds 1 2.9 2 65.8 3 20.7 4 SCR 5 36.8 6 2.9 7 1.1 8 9.8 9 20.5 10 57.7

#GulfstreamPark 3/28/26 Race 12 - Sand Springs # Projected Odds 1 5.4 2 74.2 3 1.9 4 3.5 5 SCR 6 6.7 7 8.2 8 44.5 9 23.3 10 5.0 11 79.4

#GulfstreamPark 3/28/26 Race 11 - Army Mule # Projected Odds 1 16.4 2 4.4 3 4.2 4 8.1 5 9.3 6 SCR 7 61.0 8 5.4 9 3.3 10 4.9

#GulfstreamPark 3/28/26 Race 10 - Sanibel Island # Projected Odds 1 27.6 2 13.3 3 3.7 4 20.8 5 5.6 6 15.9 7 10.3 8 2.6 9 4.3 10 10.1

#GulfstreamPark 3/28/26 Race 9 - Gulfstream Park Oaks # Projected Odds 1 17.4 2 6.5 3 27.0 4 5.0 5 2.5 6 0.9 7 25.5

#GulfstreamPark 3/28/26 Race 8 - Orchid # Projected Odds 1 5.9 2 7.0 3 15.3 4 5.9 5 2.7 6 23.6 7 1.2

#GulfstreamPark 3/28/26 Race 7 - Ghostzapper # Projected Odds 1 SCR 2 0.1 3 SCR 4 7.7 5 53.6 6 27.1 7 74.9 8 13.1 9 17.6

@NYRABets Oops! Same problem for the Fantasy (OP Race 11).

@NYRABets Fixed. Thank you.

@NYRABets : Is there a reason no will-pays are displayed on your betting interface for the Matron (OP Race 9)? I can see them on other websites, but not on yours. I've had this problem with stakes races on your website before.

#OaklawnRacing 3/27/26 Race 11 - Fantasy # Projected Odds 1 3.0 2 32.6 3 1.4 4 10.9 5 1.2 6 SCR

#OaklawnRacing 3/27/26 Race 9 - Matron # Projected Odds 1 28.1 2 SCR 3 4.6 4 10.5 5 5.1 6 1.2 7 SCR 8 9.9 9 3.9

I wondered if it was true that DD combinations with a common trainer or jockey in both legs tended to underpay. My data from last summer at Saratoga suggests that it is. Sample size is 1364 for common jockey and 368 for common trainer.

The lines on the graph were created by a loess smoother to show the trend in the data. The data itself is much messier. The gray areas around the lines reflect uncertainty due to some combination of sample size and variance in the data. 5 of 5

Using either the win or the exacta projections, short-priced DD combinations seem generally to have been paying less than the projections suggest they should have. 4 of 5

I used Claude Cowork to pull together some data I had collected from the Saratoga meet last summer and analyzed how the probable DD payoffs compared with the payoffs projected from the win and exacta pools. This graph is the result. My thoughts and methods below. 1 of 5