Prometeus Consulting
12.2K posts
#Earnings
📍Today Apr 08
Expected to Miss Estimates: $APLD
Upcoming Volatility: $APLD $DAL $STZ $RPM
Prometeus Consulting@PrometeusCT
#Earnings 📍Week Apr 06 - 12 $APLD $STZ $AEHR $DAL $BB $SMPL $GBX $LEVI $NEOG $KRUS $SKIL $WDFC $RELL $ERGP $LOT $XELB $RPM $SLP $CLIR $EVO $IQST $BYRN $PXED
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#Earnings #EarningsResults
📍Apr 07 Earnings Results
Beat Expectations: $AEHR $ASO $PXED
Guides in-line: -
Missed Expectations: $GBX $SKIL
Prometeus Consulting@PrometeusCT
#Earnings 📍Week Apr 06 - 12 $APLD $STZ $AEHR $DAL $BB $SMPL $GBX $LEVI $NEOG $KRUS $SKIL $WDFC $RELL $ERGP $LOT $XELB $RPM $SLP $CLIR $EVO $IQST $BYRN $PXED
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Put skew in EURUSD has blown out to extremes. If tonight does not produce further escalation and CPI does not come in catastrophically hot on core, the unwind in EURUSD positioning could be sharp. The pair is already showing signs of stabilization at these levels.
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#EURUSD
is pricing a lot of bad news that may not materialize. The Euro has sold off hard because Europe is a net energy importer. When crude spikes, Europe faces an inflation shock that the US does not face in the same way because the US is a net exporter.
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The covariance between stocks, rates, and the dollar has been weakening over the last week. That weakening is the signal that the macro impulse is losing momentum. Mean reversion becomes the higher probability setup from here, not continuation of the regime.
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#Treasury
Treasury vol is spiking but the setup is for a positioning unwind, not a continuation. 10Y fut vol has surged. That is not a breakout signal. It is a reflection of hedging pressure in the rates market ahead of CPI and whatever happens with Iran situation.
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Watch the Z6 contract. If it spikes back up toward that level this week, that is a fade.
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Right now, one-year swaps have moved up with crude but five and ten-year swaps have barely moved. That is the structural reason why the Fed is not hiking this year even though the forward curve briefly priced a 25bps hike last week. The market corrected that quickly.
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#CPI
📍CPI this Friday is a clearing event, and core is the variable that matters. Headline CPI is expected to come in at 3.4% year over year. Core is expected to accelerate from 2.5% to 2.7%. The question that will actually move markets is not whether headline comes in hot.
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A spread this wide reflects a real supply and demand imbalance in how crude is priced across geographies. Traders watching this spread are watching something the spot price does not tell you.
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(…) rather than expressing directional conviction on the barrel. That is a different signal than outright bullish crude positioning
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That matters because the positioning behavior around crude right now is connected to hedging activity. Large allocators who are long-duration or running inflation-sensitive portfolios are using crude calls to hedge geopolitical risk (…)
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#OIL 🛢️⛽️
Crude implied vol is not telling the same story as spot. The spot price of WTI is back near highs, but call skew is not spiking the way it did on the first two moves up. Vol is elevated but the premium structure has changed.
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