SH

@Hosang Clearly ETH was over exceeding by the stats and finding ways to win. Amorim couldn’t get the results and he took zero accountability for it. By the stats righty sacked.

@SH289016 It’s the difference between points and expected points. Expected points tell the real truth.

My profession is performance analytics and I’m one of the few people qualified to talk about it on here in an applied sense (people pay me to drive performance improvements in complex data environments, and I do no win, no fee contracts). Maybe try and listen to what I’m saying and learn, rather than being reactionary…

@Hosang Also based on expected points we “should” of finished 13th last season. Amorim was brought in to improve our position, that would have still been our worst finish in premier league history, we’d of finished 2 places higher.

@Hosang Also XG can be sometimes misleading, in a 3/4/3, if your expected goals are coming from players out of position, ie Dalot at wing back used to get a lot of chances that’s not the strong point to his game. All comes back to the formation for Amorim.

@Hosang The real truth is surely over 38 games the points you get. Theres no point a team getting relegated but the “real points” said they should have been 10th. The manager would still get sacked.

@Hosang Jimmy finishing 15th is worse than 8th. Like I said I like stats but let’s not take the piss.

@SH289016 The TRUE performance is being masked. We were statistically 14th. Defensively, we were 18th or 19th. This is the precise issue. You don’t understand how bad we were and that FA Cup win masks the worst league performance statistically.

@Hosang Jimmy I went to every home game I can assure you it wasn’t as bad as last season. We were lucky the three promoted teams were so poor or it could have been relegation. ETH could adapt like the final against city playing a false 9.

@Hosang People laugh about fans, but we are one of the 3 revenue streams, as soon as managers lose the fans it usually ends up in them leaving. Everyone knew the formation had to change. Wilcox knew it and told him.

@SH289016 Wrong. This is why the debate always go sideways because most United fans don’t realise how bad we were in 23-24. That was the low point.

@Hosang ETH is a better manager than Anorim. Btw I don’t rate ETH at all but Anorim was a whole new level of shit. Absolute con artist. Carrick barely no experience has totally turned the team around, now there is some excitement on match days.

@Hosang Jimmy the only person thst took us near relegation was Amorim. Carrick is working to the strength of the players we have, which is smart. His football is more entertaining than Amorim’s. But he’s hampered with the midfield that will be addressed this summer.

No. It never works like that. Tell me a coach that started pragmatic and then became a systems coach? Never works. Look at Ten Hag, he was a systems coach, he went pragmatic after first 2 games, got 3rd (fortunately) and then in his 2nd season, he implemented his system and…. It was relegation worthy 😂

@Hosang It always works like that. You have to build a good spine. Good keeper, center back, midfielder and striker. Look at every great team ever that’s what they have. Carrick won’t change system, it will be a flexible 4/3/3. Key this summer is keeping Bruno.

@SH289016 It never works like that... The lightbulb didn't come from the continuous improvement of the candle... Carrick won't implement a system later...

@Hosang Formation does matter, it’s absolutely vital. If your players aren’t in their positions, it’s a mess. If formation doesn’t matter why do all top teams in this country play 4 at the back. The formation is why it didn’t workout for him.

@SH289016 Yeah, but that shows that it's idealogical... I don't care about the formation... It doesn't matter. What matters are those 3-4 tactics and their implementation

@Hosang That’s quite interesting. It shows the stats can be quite misleading. We were a shambles last season and the year before. I mean last season we were basically spurs. Against Ipswich at home people were talking about relegation.

@SH289016 This is United's stats based on Machine Footballs scoring methodology... Screenshot 1 is this season, 2 is last season, 3 is 23/24...

@Hosang Seeing three at the back makes me ill. 🤢. I think with a wide left player and 2 new midfielders Carrick will close the gap to city and arsenal. Last time we had back to back goals top 4 finishes was ole.

You can sign any player you want, but there's a ceiling to Carricks style of play... We simply can't take the risk of letting him continue UNLESS he shows actual progression from a game model POV in final few games... This is from Le Saux's analytics company... The cohesion score for Amorim and the team was 47 when he joined, then 51 with the new players... It's only 52 with Carrick... I think it's interesting and I have the same variables in my model... But is overly complex... Goodness of Tactical Fit

@Hosang Initially let’s just get back in the top 5, champions league. Walk before we run. Then gradually build for the title. Get a good spine of players. Get some wingers back, we sold most due to the formation. I don’t think we can get Enrique yet so we keep Carrick until then.

@SH289016 I work with several multibillion £ companies implementing my software... You have to know what you're optimising for... Are you optimising for a safe top 4 finish or are you trying to win a league?

@Hosang Champions league football this year will mean we can sign better players. The stats show his formation doesn’t work in the premier league, his stubborn to change/adapt ultimately started the argument that led to him leaving. Btw let’s be honest as a fan him leaving was great.

Yes, Le Saux was saying the existing squad last season could not fit to Ruben Amorims style. 1000000% agree. But a lot of them don’t fit into any high press, high line, build out from the back style… De Ligt, Yoro, Rashford, Garnacho, Hojlund… They’re not suited to that style of play. But then after those first 6 games and after the last 2 windows, the overall team and cohesion was MILES better. It’s called Machine Football… Let’s see

@Hosang Then reverted back to a back 3 against wolves at home and drew. That’s when Wilcox had it out with him. That’s when it became clear he wasn’t going to change. Iv never in my life known a manager care more about a formation than winning.

3 at the back is a red herring. People don’t use it in England, doesn’t mean it doesn’t work. Last couple of seasons, Alonso won with it in Bundesliga, Nagelsmann too. Inzaghi, Conte and Allegri have won the league with it in Italy. Bear with me on points, however, I would point to these screenshots, which is Amorims last 10 games v Carrick’s first 10. As expected points shows, Amorim was unlucky, Carrick is exceptionally lucky.

@Hosang Jimmy with all due respect. You cover every stat except the most important one, points. If arsenal finish one point above city this year, and city have a higher XG or expected points no body will care. Stats are great, but have the work alongside the main objectives.

@Hosang You can be lucky in a couple of games. In a large poor of games it’s unlikely you’re lucky in 10 games. No formations outside the premier league do not matter it doesn’t work in the premier league.The players don’t understand it and it doesn’t suit the physical systems of theEPL.