ST_PYI

Market notes. Will do Video update next week. 1. Crude above $100 is not just psychological — even 1 quarter of sustained elevated prices can compress earnings globally and trigger multi-sector impact. 2. Energy is the root variable right now. Higher crude → higher input cost ↑ lower margins ↓ lower demand ↓ earnings compression → market correction. 3. Breadth remains extremely weak: Only 20–22% stocks above 200 DMA 4. Median correction across broader markets 35–40% already —but history shows this alone does NOT define a bottom. 5. Market structure remains LH LL: Until this changes, rallies are sell-on-rise, not trend reversal. 6. Geopolitics is driving volatility — not fundamentals. Markets are reacting to tweets, statements, and narrative shifts, not data. 7. Clear signs of short-term manipulation / information asymmetry —massive moves triggered within minutes on unverified news flows. Crude / Gold / Silver. 8. Currency weakness adds another layer: Foreign investors face instant mark-to-market losses, reducing inflows. Why would they return ? 9. Intermarket signal to track: Crude ↑ Equities ↓. Bond yields 30 Y near 5–6% equals Policy pressure builds on Trump. 10. Lesson from 2008 — Hope is Dangerous. In 2008, markets gave "hope rallies" multiple times before Lehman. Each one broke investors back. COVID was a vertical crash + V recovery. 2008 left psychological scars that lasted years. Know the difference. Wait for definitive signs before calling a bottom. 11. Don't wait for good news to start researching. Identify sectors you understand. Mark your pivots. When the market turns, it moves FAST — and most investors are left standing on the platform. Research today, Be prepared for tomorrow. 12. India VIX was at 20 recently. A spike to 27-38 (another 15-20% up in VIX) is entirely possible. Higher VIX = higher volatility = more shakeouts ahead. 13. Hope for the best. Plan for the worst. Use TIME and VOLATILITY as allies, not enemies. Avoid big F&O bets in a falling market. Cut 50% if trade goes 2-3% against you. Survive first, then thrive. 14. Bottom line: Crude, breadth, bond yields & VIX are your 4 real-time dashboards. Trust these instead of News flow. 15. Crude tells you about War. Breadth about Market internals. Yields about U.S. Administrations tolerance of Pain and VIX about fear. Focus on long-term allocations / ETFs. Wait for structure shift (HH-HL) before getting aggressive in Position sizing. Not everything is weak — pockets of strength exist. Therefore, gradual accumulation is more sensible as a strategy for the time being.

Get rid of petty minded people from your life. Family. Friends . Online. Offline. Anyone who fits the bill. You owe this to yourself.

Media, Social Media forces you to over trade. Keeps you on the edge and in a state of anxiousness. If you don’t understand this yet, you’ve already lost this game. Stick to your rules. Follow your process. Everything else is Noise.

Be thankful we live in India. Thousands of problems, yet we are safe. Don’t for once believe the good for nothing influencers who have no other job but to criticise India 24*7. Same applies to Markets. India will be the best performing market over the next decade. Keep your money and investments here. Be patient. Make use of sector ETFs if you don’t understand how to pick stocks.

Continuation ....

Go through this summary. Could not do a Video update this week. Just some audio notes I have summarized through AI tools. AI related errors can exist within these notes. Total 6 charts summarizing everything.

1) Poor conditions still prevail in the Market. 2) Market breadth still stands at 34.1%. This means, only 34% stocks (liquid) are above 200 DMA. 3) Broader market has not yet printed a structure of HH HL. It still trends below 50 & 200 DMA. 4) Make use of Volatility to add to your long term ETF investments. This still remains a market where long term ETF accumulation makes more sense. 5) In weaker breadth environment, random up & down movements are common. This is the current phase of the market driven by events, macro & micro data. 6) Nifty 500 & Nifty 50 along with other Indices are below 200 DMA. Be careful. 7) 200 DMA is an excellent sentiment indicator. It tells you about the underlying conditions of the market. Never ignore it. 8) U.S. - Iran conflict has finally begun. Impact of the same will be felt across asset classes. Let the market react tomorrow and then adjust positions accordingly. Everything you hear today are opinions. Wait for the verdict from Market tomorrow. 9) Nifty Small cap, Microcap, Mid-Small cap 400 still remain in a firm LH LL structure. 10) Breadth within these pockets (SMIDS) is even weaker than overall market breadth. (Less than 18% stocks above 200 DMA) 11) If Straits of Hormuz is indeed impacted, then impact of the same will be felt in India & in China. Will be felt in Saudi Arabia as well. 12) Don't rush to short-sell the Market tomorrow. This would be a common trade for tomorrow among participants. 13) If you don't have short positions or puts, simply sit out. Mark out levels where you want to add to your long term ETF investments. 14) Structures are still not ideal. Volatility is still high. Even if markets don't fall a lot tomorrow, India remains weak within a strong Global trend. Basically, we are under performing and have poor relative strength. 15) In such an environment, prefer Capital protection as opposed to chasing short-term punts in the Market. Focus on adding to your investments if price gets too volatile. Be patient. Be consistent.

Cribbing stops you from Growing. Stop it today. Take ownership & aim to Improve.

Structure v/s Hype 1) Trade deal was good news. But, don't fall for the hype. 2) Breadth of the market was weak till yesterday. Even after today, breadth remains weak. 3) Ask yourself - What is the structure of Nifty 500, Nifty Small cap, Nifty Microcap, Nifty Mid-small cap 400 ? 4) Structure is lower high and lower low with majority of Indices at or below 200 DMA. 5) Over 65-68% of Liquid stocks still remain below 200 DMA. It is important for you to not forget this. Most stocks have bounced back today within LH LL Structure. 6) Desperation or FOMO leads to mistakes. You need to be objective in how you look at what is happening. 7) Even as a long term trader, you make money in the 'Meat' of the Trend. Not at the bottom, not at the Top. 8) So if you did not have a lot of open positions today, don't be scared of missing out. 9) Let market firmly put in a structure of HH HL at broader market level. Let it start trending above 50 & 200 DMA. Let the breadth improve. 10) A sustained bull market will give you lot of time to build positions. 11) This is a market where you can certainly make gradual investments. Be it stocks or ETF, keep looking for opportunities. 12) But as a long term trader, don't forget that volatile markets lead to random movements. 13) When the breadth is weak, you will even see strength pockets correcting in a random manner. 14) Brace for more 'V' shape and inverted 'V' shape movements in the market. 15) Today, everything seems rosy. What if U.S. - Iran get into a conflict tomorrow ? Everything that went up today will start reversing tomorrow. 16) Therefore, prefer structures over hype. Yes, the budget was fine. It'd be great had Govt done something for Investors on taxation front. Yes, the Trade deal is great. But, don't get desperate. Let breadth improve, let market print HH HL and let 50 & 200 DMA be your guide. If this indeed is the beginning of a new sustained bull leg, you will get plenty of opportunities in between. Be patient. Be consistent.

This was not Required. 1. Breadth of the market was already weak. Less than 23% liquid stocks above 200 DMA. 2. Correction in Metals had begun (This was the strength pocket along with PSU Banks) 3. Today's move has impacted the structure of PSU Banks and Banks in general. 4. Couple of sectors were attempting to form a base (Defence, Capital markets, CPSE, PSE). Now these will have to be evaluated again. 5. Today's STT related move could not have come at a worse time for the market. 6. This may be short-term in nature, but it has the potential to do some more damage. 7. Sentiment matters a lot in the Market. If this move was indeed due by the Govt, this could have been announced at a more appropriate time. 8. This has come wherein our markets were already unattractive per se given the pool of assets that exists. 9. We are underperforming the EM and the World basket by a distant margin. 10. At this moment, we needed a boost for Capital market. Something that would push investments (FPI & FDI towards) us. This is a missed opportunity.

All over the World, Equity markets are used as a source to compliment progress of a Nation. Not in India. In India, we shoot ourselves repeatedly in the foot. and that too, for no apparent reason.

When breadth of the market is weak, be careful with Position size. Try long setups, but try it with smaller size. Be careful with your positions in F&O as well. Breadth has narrowed significantly in November and movement is limited to Top 100-200 names along with Select Mid cap counters. This is not the ideal environment to bet big in anything. A market where just 33-37% liquid names are above 200 DMA is a market where you think 'Risk' first.

10 L to 10 Crores. 1 Crore to 50 Crores. All these headlines for views are going to make you anxious and will make you take poor decisions. Every person has his own journey. Focus on yours. Slow is fast. Waqt se pehle, kismat se jyaada, kisi ko kuch nahi milta. Work hard. Leave rest to your luck & blessings of God.

In November, market has been 2 faced. On one hand, Sectors & Indices have hit ATH, Whereas on the other hand there's a lot of silent distribution that has happened in the Small & Micro cap space. This is a selective Bull market where Mid to Large cap stocks are working. Bull market has narrowed down to selective pockets this month. Use dips to add to the above. Stay away from Small cap & Microcap till you see long term charts improving for these. If you are a good bottom up Investor / Trader, then yes you can still look at this space.

Popular Opinion - India is falling because of U.S. Correction. Answer - No. Distribution in Indian market is capital moving to Select sectors, themes of the Market. India is one of the least correlated markets to the World currently. Beta is quite low.

Add Autos to this now !

Breadth is widening in the Market. Lot of beaten down names are improving their structure silently. This is Positive for the long term. A bull market that has broader participation is always more reliable. Small, Mid & Micro cap Indices are lagging. But plenty of opportunity in this segment. Stage 2 Stocks + Rising Relative Strength + Strong Sector movement. Focus on this in SMID space.

@tradingview Improve your service.

Trading View is pathetic in the first 30-45 Min of Market opening. So slow to load, both on Web & Desktop app. Its a shame they aren't improving their services. Please tag them in the comment if you face similar issues.