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Follow up video. Still no traffic. Wanted to give an overview of what's going on in the region, where the US is blockading vs. where the IRGC is stopping ships, as there seems to be a lot of confusion.
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Chris Rollins
205 posts
Chris Rollins
@ThePowerAudit
Former 18C Green Beret. Energy Investor, real-time maritime intelligence and AIS tracking during Operation Epic Fury. Focused on the data not the headline.
Beigetreten Aralık 2025
57 Folgt980 Follower
These numbers mean almost nothing. Most of that traffic is Iranian vessels moving between Iranian coastline ports, inside the blockade perimeter, not through it.
Ships are going in empty. They are not leaving laden.
What is the true number of laden vessels that have transited out of the strait since the blockade started and reached their final destination? By my count, ZERO. That is what matters to global oil supply. Not how many small Iranian ships run back and forth along their own coast.
There are possible illegal STS transfers going on in the Golf of Oman but that is a guessing game and hard to quantify.
First Squawk@FirstSquawk
Strait of Hormuz traffic collapsed sharply, partial recovery but still severely depressed Peak at 132 vessels (Feb 26) → near shutdown with multiple zero-traffic days in March Sustained disruption through March with mostly single-digit vessel movement April shows mild recovery (5–16 vessels/day) but far below normal levels Indicates ongoing geopolitical risk and constrained oil/shipping flows through Strait of Hormuz
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@Smoking1776 Clearly you should follow along if you think that is the case. Facts aren't propaganda. Ignoring facts is.
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Here is the video with IRGC Navy audio telling them to turn around and report to port immediately.
The Strait of Hormuz is not open for business. It is now 4 PM and markets are closed. The US is cleared to resume escalatory rhetoric until Sunday at 6 PM.
Chris Rollins@ThePowerAudit
MAJOR Movement out of Dubai and Sharjah this morning... But watch watch just happened! They are all turning around in the same area and heading back to port
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@bellina_eva If you have been following along, you will understand why the longer the strait is closed the better for the US when they meet with China mid may...
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@ThePowerAudit The Strait of Hormuz IS Open!
This is IRANIAN PROPAGANDA!
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@TomKennedy76er I posted here earlier in the day I was long USO at 113, which it dropped to 110 before returning back up to 116. x.com/ThePowerAudit/…
Chris Rollins@ThePowerAudit
Two hours ago: Trump says Israel prohibited from bombing Lebanon. Now: Netanyahu says Hezbollah job not finished. Also two hours ago: Axios plants $20B framework. Now: Trump says "no money in any way, shape, or form." Also two hours ago: crude drops 10% on "strait open." Now: NATO publicly called "paper tiger" and told to stay away. The deal is already contradicting itself within hours of being announced. Paper priced resolution. Reality is Israeli defiance, financial reneging, NATO rupture, IRGC escort requirements, and a 10-day conditional window. Physical signals remain unchanged. I have started a position in USO at 113
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Check my feed man, the blockade, per CENTCOM's own statements is not on the Straits. The US blockade has been effective and essentially eliminated most all of IRANIAN oil exports. The narrative that a ship traveling the straits of Hormuz is a US failure is categorical false. The US Navy has achieved their goal of financial destruction of Iranian Oil.
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@ThePowerAudit @rivercove57 Yes they are! The US has 4 DDG’s on the Persian Gulf side of the strait. Two of them very publicly traversed and mapped the strait last weekend.
The blockade is on both sides of the strait.
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MAJOR Movement out of Dubai and Sharjah this morning... But watch watch just happened!
They are all turning around in the same area and heading back to port
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@m1ha313 You should be asking that about every AXIOS headline...
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@ThePowerAudit How do we know any of these images or videos are real? What’s the source?
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With audio overlay from IRGC Navy telling ships to turn around. This is direct IRGC intervention x.com/ThePowerAudit/…
Chris Rollins@ThePowerAudit
Here is the video with IRGC Navy audio telling them to turn around and report to port immediately. The Strait of Hormuz is not open for business. It is now 4 PM and markets are closed. The US is cleared to resume escalatory rhetoric until Sunday at 6 PM.
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@rivercove57 The US Blockade is not operating in that area where they turned around.
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Reminder, from this morning I said don't trust the headlines
x.com/ThePowerAudit/…
Chris Rollins@ThePowerAudit
The fine print on today's "Hormuz open" announcement: Iranian State TV: "Ships passing through Hormuz need IRGC coordination." Iranian military: "Military vessels not allowed to pass." Norwegian Shipowners Association: "Situation remains unresolved" due to sea mine concerns. Hapag-Lloyd: Will refrain from passing. No Western commercial fleet will voluntarily coordinate with IRGC. That's the operational reality. The strait is "open" in the same sense it was yesterday: open under Iranian coordination terms, which commercial shipping won't accept. The tollbooth is intact. The filter is intact. The blockade against Iran specifically remains in full force per Trump's own Truth post. What changed today: the paper price of oil. What didn't change: anything physical. TODAY IS OPEX day. If you think there is about to be a peace deal I would caution your optimism
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US DOE just loaned 26.03 million barrels of SPR crude to 9 companies including BP, Exxon, and Energy Transfer. 87% uptake on the 30M offered.
This is the supply-side pressure valve. It keeps WTI controlled, gives Trump bond market cover to extend the blockade, and confirms physical crude tightness is real. Refiners would not grab SPR this aggressively if the Iran reopen were functional.
The US goal is to keep the global energy crisis going as long as it can to starve and leverage China, while negotiating better terms with NATO and Greenland. SPR loans are the tool that makes extension possible. Until we start getting leaked preterms favorable to the US from China, or NATO beginning to capitulate, the US is happy to continue starving everyone while locking in long-term deals. Especially natural gas, which requires some infrastructure build up but the US has been stockpiling for this. NG is down on the year domestically while up 58% in Europe.
First Squawk@FirstSquawk
US DOE: LOANED 26.03M BARRELS OF CRUDE OIL FROM SPR OUT OF 30M BARRELS OFFERED
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CELESTYAL DISCOVERY did not mess around and that seems to be paying off.. Only one I am tracking to have made it out this morning from PORT RASHID
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SERRANO just became the first vessel to depart Chabahar since the destroyers news reports of stopping ships at Chabahar. AIS turned on.
Togo flag container ship, IMO 9167083. Departed April 16 at 10:21 UTC in ballast at 4.8m draft. Currently 8.6 knots on course 122°, declared destination Nhava Sheva, India. ETA April 23.
Blue Sky is heading back in to port
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Blockade live Day 5 thread:
SHALAMAR is still going and getting closer to exiting the Gulf of Oman
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Video breakdown: PAKISTAN WARSHIP 4 escorting SARGODHA.
Pakistani-flagged crude oil tanker SARGODHA (IMO 9360465), laden at 11.6m draft, escorted by PAKISTAN WARSHIP 4 through the Gulf of Oman. The warship ran parallel at matching speed (10.8 kn) until SARGODHA cleared the Iranian border line, then turned around, heading back west.
The escort had one job: get SARGODHA through the blockade zone. Once clear, the warship released her and reversed course.
Pakistan mediates the US-Iran talks. US officials reportedly heading back to Islamabad within days. The warship just demonstrated that Pakistani-flagged cargo gets physical military escort through the US blockade filter. The US Navy let them pass.
Watching who it escorts next...SHALAMAR is a candidate. Not a professional video or youtuber so pardon the quality.
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