The Thinking Digital Conference

When the Testers aren't using the product as intended.

Deutsche Bank: Growth of ChatGPT’s Paying Users in Europe Has Stalled The flagship product of the AI industry, ChatGPT, is facing a major challenge. Growth in paying users across Europe appears to have come to a standstill, signaling a serious warning about AI’s monetization potential. Germany’s Deutsche Bank recently reported that consumer spending on ChatGPT in the European market has been virtually stagnant since May 2025. This suggests that ChatGPT — the “symbolic product” of the AI boom — may have already reached its peak in attracting new paying subscribers. Although OpenAI CEO Sam Altman announced last week that “ChatGPT’s weekly active users have surpassed 800 million,” Deutsche Bank noted that the number of paying users has slowed markedly, and revenue growth still lags far behind that of streaming platforms like Spotify and Netflix. The report stated: “OpenAI’s corporate valuation has reached $500 billion, approaching Netflix’s market capitalization, yet its revenue scale and paid subscriber base are far behind.” This highlights the core contradiction facing today’s AI industry — a widening gap between technological influence and commercial profitability. Deutsche Bank analyst Jim Reid commented: “There’s no doubt AI will change the world and boost productivity. But the path to profit remains unclear. The real challenge isn’t the algorithm — it’s the business model.” ⸻ Weakening Growth Signals in Europe Deutsche Bank’s dbDataInsights team tracked consumer spending data across five major European markets — France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the United Kingdom — and found that since May 2025, monthly spending growth on ChatGPT has slowed sharply. Interestingly, a similar seasonal slowdown occurred in July–August 2024, which was then attributed to a drop in student usage during the summer. In 2024, however, spending rebounded strongly in June and showed a clear recovery in September. In contrast, no rebound has been observed during the same period in 2025 — suggesting that this stagnation may be structural rather than seasonal. Deutsche Bank concluded: “Although the data is limited to a few European countries and subject to statistical variation, the current stagnation should not be taken lightly.” ⸻ Gap Between Valuation and Revenue The bank compared OpenAI’s valuation and business scale with major streaming platforms: • Netflix: Market cap ≈ $500 billion, over 300 million paying subscribers, projected $45 billion in 2025 revenue, P/S ratio 12.5× • Spotify: Market cap ≈ $144 billion, 276 million paying subscribers, projected $17 billion+ revenue, P/S ratio 7.3× • OpenAI: As of April 2025, about 20 million paying users worldwide — with revenue far below comparable levels Thus, OpenAI’s $500 billion valuation appears disproportionately high relative to its actual revenue. Deutsche Bank emphasized that while ChatGPT’s weekly active users surged from 500 million in March to 800 million, the true challenge lies in converting this massive traffic into stable paying subscribers. The report noted that AI tools’ initial growth typically stems from curiosity and free adoption, but their ultimate ceiling is determined by retention and perceived long-term utility once monetization begins. ⸻ Investors’ Focus Shifts to Monetization Investors are now closely watching OpenAI’s next revenue disclosure. Deutsche Bank warned: “If the slowdown in paying-user growth continues, the valuation framework for the entire AI industry may face a major recalibration.” In summary, the stagnation of ChatGPT’s paying users in Europe is not a trivial data fluctuation — it’s a sign of the commercial reality confronting the AI industry. Technological progress does not automatically translate into profit, marking what could be the true inflection point of the AI bubble.