Niel 尼尔

I have seen many takes on this, but this is how I would categorize Europe

@HazelAppleyard 10 per pushup

$10 per push-up or $1 million?

Eurojury result if you weight each countries points by the amount of jurors in each country. I.e. ROW ranking weight 12 times more than Belgiums (12J Vs 1):

BREAKING: The free money farm on @Polymarket just went from 0.1% to 1% minutes ago. The top YES holder who keeps promoting his memecoin is still donating money to Polymarket traders. I just deposited $10,000 and put over $13,000 on this yield.

@escbetting @eurovisionbets @Bensvision

@eurovisionbets @Bensvision The pod is all aboard the Soren Express 🎉 🥳 👯🏻‍♀️

Time for our #Eurovision Jury Top-10 prediction! A special episode about the Js with a very special guest, @Bensvision sharing his wisdom and thoughts! Yes, 🇩🇰 is mentioned...

@ge_aldrig_upp I'm slightly confused tho why people now are saying Greece should be tying with Finland. It's been the case for months now. We don't have many stagings yet of songs. + eurojury is only right 6/10. It's slightly better then a coinflip.

- 🇬🇷 should *at least* be tying 🇫🇮 in odds - good result for 🇩🇰, could still theoretically win if Søren strikes the right vibe with televote, more likely IMHO to be lower top5 - 🇨🇾 🇮🇹 🇦🇱 all playing to sneak into top5 - 🇸🇪🇨🇿 should be safe Q - 🇮🇱 has no path to win #eurovision

@DrClownPhD It's haram

Is this an appropriate way to dress in public? 🤔

@Bensvision Who is the best then?

I join the 2nd best #eurovision betting podcast of all time to discuss their predicted jury top ten at ESC 2026. Jury voting might be very different this year with the new way they work.

Hopefully Polymarket is on precipice of replacing UMA, because the "oracle" that underpins the site is now a disinformation engine that has been taken over by rogue traders. (If you find the below post confusing, byzantine, stupid, or anything else, first of all that's probably partly my fault, and secondly that's also exactly what I am trying to convey: the resolution of markets is now a dizzying, corrupt mess.) -- The largest and most influential voter in the "oracle" that governs Polymarket's prediction market is no longer anyone with Risk Labs (UMA was created by a legit crypto company, but they've stopped updating UMA and largely abandoned it). It is now UMA Rocks, a collection of Polymarket traders. UMA Rocks decisions are made by various unqualified bozos, who have real-money positions in the markets they're voting to resolve, and thus have a strong incentives in resolving markets to something that personally benefits them. -- Which brings us to the market in question: corny loser Clavicular claimed/joked that he got a girl pregnant, as he has done in the past. He said she was pregnant within 10 days of meeting him. He offered no proof, and talks about it very vaguely, sometimes implying that it is true, sometimes implying that it is a joke. Polymarket has a relationship with Clavicular, and had a market up on a pregnancy announcement (we'll set aside whether Clavicular himself traded on this, I have no idea. He was aware of the market). Obviously a streamer is not inherently credible when his brand is making silly viral clips, and that is doubly true when the streamer is making vague comments. The rules correctly require a credible claim. It shouldn't expire yes until we get something...anything...that is credible. Common sense. Scrolling through the arguments, pretty much every single long-time user of Polymarket thinks it shouldn't count (even ironically including some yes holders). And as anyone who has tried to get pregnant with a partner will realize, his joke doesn't even make sense: it is next-to-impossible to go from sex to a positive pregnancy test within 10 days. But it IS going to expire to yes in a few hours for one reason: UMA Rocks has hijacked the voting process. A user named Scout (who was, at the time, one of the biggest yes holder and also a key UMA Rocks member) posted that it should be Yes because Clavicular is unimpeachable as a source on himself. Note here that Scout is already banned from Polymarket's discord server (very hard to do lol) for engaging in borderline criminal activity, before any of these events happened. Scout then propelled UMA Rocks to officially side with Yes. The second largest voter, a Risk Labs employee, then switched his vote after UMA Rocks voted (this was done out of self preservation, because if you vote on the losing side in UMA, you lose money). The vote was somewhat close in the first round, with "Yes" edging out "Too Early to Expire" in raw token votes (the vast majority of tokenholders voted "Too Early", but UMA Rocks led the small number of whales who actually decide the outcomes to voting "Yes"). Because of the way that UMA works -- it incentivizes the most popular answer rather than the truthful answer -- anything that is leading in a previous round is extremely likely to win. And so now the vote is overwhelmingly projected to go Yes. Clav's "announcement" was a few days ago, and we now know it is very unlikely that anyone is pregnant/girl was already kicked out of his house allegedly, and that it was extremely likely a viral joke from a streamer in need of positive PR...but the wheels are in motion and nobody is trying to stop it. -- Post-script: (1) Scout was kicked out of UMA Rocks a few hours ago for this scheme. (2) UMA Rocks has attempted to wield its influence in various markets since it became the largest holder of UMA a few weeks ago, often posting to flip the odds. But it also often ultimately fails, because Polymarket intercedes and clarifies against them. (3) Polymarket has strangely not clarified or commented on this one, despite it receiving a lot of attention. Which brings me to my final point. It's now been a year since the minerals market heist, where users lost millions of dollars to a fraudulent UMA scheme that took place over a weekend. We were assured that things would change. Unfortunately nothing has changed, and it has gotten far, far, far worse. UMA is far more vulnerable than it was a year ago, and the inmates are starting to take the asylum.

@ChaoticAna9 @Polymarket @PolymarketTrade Those spreads tho

New day, new sex. Let's play! What's your bet?🤣 I think this is easier to predict than Trump or the war in Iran.

@grok @TheNotoriousSKi @SuhailKakar No i use gemini

@TradingNiel @TheNotoriousSKi @SuhailKakar Ask Grok is currently available to Premium and Premium+ subscribers only. Subscribe to unlock this feature: x.com/i/premium_sign…

prediction markets are the perfect training ground for ai agents clear feedback loop, quantifiable performance, money on the line, way better signal than benchmarks. putting together something with gpt 5.5 and opus 4.7 trading through polymarket. more later

@grok @TheNotoriousSKi @SuhailKakar The oracle has spoken

@TheNotoriousSKi @SuhailKakar No, Clavicular isn't pregnant. Got any Polymarket odds on that though? 😏

@YUNGSGODAK @souljaboy Soulja boy - the world so cold

@souljaboy Soulja Boy- Who Can I Trust

What song got you through the hardest time?

This is probably the wildest data point you'll see today. The cost to a French employer of a net pay of €39k is a staggering €95k. How is this even possible? Can you imagine the incentive to replace French jobs with AI and robots? Get some popcorn.

@ActionNetworkHQ @VitalVegas Why would you tip anyway in a casino? The edge is negative, you going to lose anyway. It's not like you owe someone anything.

Are you tipping if you hit a jackpot on a slot machine? 🤔

@Orpheus_Livi @CalmAfterTheTim Wrong

@CalmAfterTheTim Diaspora and Balkans will vote more for Jalla though. This is what they actually want for Greece, songs as Jalla!

If Greece will do as well with the actual juries as they do with Eurojury we might be heading to a Greek win

@c64f7e94 @OgilFreddo @foreshadowj @51bodila My final answer is 26.35% of my bankroll. Assuming it's 2/1 reward vs risk (she didn't say this) and i will cheat by looking which side is facing up, so i get 50.9% chance here on average. On a 100 dollar bankroll. Otherwise i would blow up by betting 100%. Do i get the job now?

@TradingNiel @OgilFreddo @foreshadowj @51bodila I know this, actually. 2017 paper (at least that's when I read it)

After this interview, Jane Street hired this Quant analyst at $220,000–$600,000/year In 21 minutes, you’ll learn what a Tier 1 hedge fund interview is like Here are some of the questions they ask: 1. You have $100, fair coin. Heads - you get 2x your bet back, tails - you lose it. 100 flips. What's the optimal bet size? 2. So what exact percentage should you bet? 3. Will you bet the same amount all 100 times or adjust your strategy? 4. Prove mathematically that betting 100% of bankroll maximizes EV at any capital size 5. What if the starting bankroll is $150 - does anything change? 6. Calculate the expected return over 100 flips with the optimal strategy 7. You roll a fair die until you get 3-4-5 in a row. What's the probability you roll an odd number of times? Quant answered all these questions in the video __ Bookmark & watch it to find out how to get into a hedge fund

@c64f7e94 @OgilFreddo @foreshadowj @51bodila Fun fact: a flipped coin is not perfectly 50/50. Because of the physics of angular momentum, a coin will land on the same side it started on about 50.8 to 51% of the time.

@TradingNiel @OgilFreddo @foreshadowj @51bodila Yes, and if you win your win compensates. "Long-run expected winnings" is very standard language in probability/decision theory. If you blow up, your long-run winnings are -100.

@c64f7e94 @OgilFreddo @foreshadowj @51bodila Anyway i think the question is very badly worded. What is the risk reward, she never said the cost price was already taken into account either.

@c64f7e94 @OgilFreddo @foreshadowj @51bodila You do have a point tho, purely from a literal wording. But it just doesn't work in the real world.