Vladimir Signorelli

Call it what it is: a global value recession. Equities are marching to all-time highs in fiat dollars while collapsing when priced in the only numeraire that still clears: gold. 5/6

BREAKING: Iran's Supreme Leader has "forbidden" negotiations with the US under current conditions, per IRGC-affiliated Raja News. Araghchi will not meet with Kushner and Witkoff in Pakistan. The White House said minutes ago that "Iran reached out and asked for an in-person meeting."

This is important 👇

The ADL is a hate group

Another one for the @DataRepublican jar…

NYT frames this as if USAID employees had a quasi-property right to high-paying, taxpayer-funded jobs. In reality, this tells a darker story—we spent half-a-century debt-financing a managerial class of Leftists whose only qualifications were ideological.

NO IRAN-US TALKS DURING ARAGHCHI'S PAKISTAN VISIT, ONLY BILATERAL ENGAGEMENT - SENIOR IRANIAN SOURCE

Screaming red headlines in the last five minutes that are changing the equation .... *DOJ EXPECTED TO DROP CRIMINAL PROBE OF POWELL, ABC SAYS *PIRRO SAYS SHE'S CLOSING POWELL PROBE INTO FED BUILDING COSTS

truly one of the most amazing developments in trans-Atlantic tech policy over the past 20 years is the way that Europe set out to regulate US tech giants into the ground, but only made them more dominant as a result. This Economist headline really says it.

REPORTER: “Are you concerned about insider trading on these prediction markets for the Iran war?” TRUMP: “The world is a casino. It is what it is.” Trump isn’t concerned with insider trading bc his entire family is fleecing the American people.

Powell's Chairmanship ends 3 weeks from today (May 15). Polymarket probability Warsh gets confirmed BEFORE May 15 is just 28% (90%+ by summer end). Powell says he stays as Chairman until Warsh is nominated. Trump says he will replace Powell on May 15 with a temporary Chairman. Can't wait!!

Wow, this is huge, after months of speculation and the U.S. running a massive pre-emptive discreditation campaign (x.com/RnaudBertrand/…), DeepSeek-V4 is finally out! I haven't studied it in depth but here are the most striking aspects as far as I can tell: - Fully open sourced with open weights (available for download on huggingface: huggingface.co/deepseek-ai) - Zero CUDA dependency anywhere in its stack, which is probably the biggest deal of all. For those who don't know, CUDA is Nvidia's software layer - the foundation nearly every frontier AI model in the world is built on. Except, as of today, DeepSeek V4, which can run entirely on Huawei Ascend chips via Huawei's CANN framework (finance.yahoo.com/sectors/techno…). Very concretely it means that China now not only has its own frontier AI models, but its own domestic AI stack, top to bottom. - The prices are insanely low. V4-Pro is roughly 3x cheaper than GPT-5.5 on input and 8.6x cheaper on output. And V4-Flash is an order of magnitude cheaper still, at $0.14/$0.28 per million tokens vs OpenAI's $5/$30 - so 30-100x cheaper than GPT-5.5 (!). And remember, these are the prices DeepSeek charges on its own API - anyone can download the weights and run them for "free" on their own server. - It is at or near the frontier on most benchmarks that matter. V4-Pro-Max matches or beats GPT-5.4 and Claude Opus 4.6 on competitive programming (Codeforces rating 3206), coding (LiveCodeBench 93.5), and math (HMMT 95.2, IMO AnswerBench 89.8). It trails the very newest GPT-5.5 and Opus 4.7 on a handful of the hardest agentic and knowledge benchmarks, but it's in the same league. In effect the value proposition is: "Same league as frontier US AI, at a fraction of the price, open-source and freely modifiable, and hardware-agnostic - you can run it on whatever infrastructure you choose." Which is insanely good. I now understand the need for a preemptive discreditation campaign: they had every reason to be worried. For the vast majority of use cases, you'd have to be a literal idiot to keep paying OpenAI or Anthropic's prices when this exists.

Yesterday, 25 U.S. refueling aircraft and military transport aircraft landed in Tel Aviv. This is NOT routine. This is preparation for WAR.

The perennial question is which is worse: GOP foreign policy (not just Trump, Cruz and Lindsey are the majority of the party) or Democrat domestic policy.

Gold Card program: All sizzle, no steak. Lutnick edition. That’s at least the second time he’s been caught publicly lying. Remember the Epstein one?

For reference, the head of the CIA only makes $230K / year.

@rpondiscio @NewYorker @CondeNast Well played

I just cancelled my subscription to @NewYorker. I'll be shoplifting it from now on. Fair is fair, @CondeNast

Thank goodness!

BREAKING: President Trump announces the ceasefire between Lebanon and Israel has been extended by 3 weeks.

@zerohedge Thanks for playing! 🎰

This is how you generate a lot of artificial volatility (all times ET): 12:57pm: Israel on high alert ahead of possible renewed war this weekend: Channel 13 1:03pm: Ghalibaf has resigned as parliament speaker under IRGC pressure: N12 News 1:35 pm: Reports of air defense activation in Tehran: Nour 1:48pm: Israel denies it launched any attack in Iran: Al Araby 2:02pm: Pakistani sources say US-Iran talks are continuing: Al Arabiya 2:05pm: Iran media says air defense in Tehran was a test: Al Araby 2:10pm: Iran reporters deny Ghalibaf has resigned

@joekent16jan19 Agree -- we must not get sucked in. Israel’s endgame looks bigger: breaking Iran into weaker pieces over time. But you don’t ‘break’ a country of ~90mln and bolt. Someone has to manage the aftermath. Israel can’t. That bill lands on us. Restraint serves America best.

Israel will try to force us back into the war b/c their objective is regime change/decapitation. They can’t do this without us. POTUS has made it clear that our military objectives have been met, it’s essential we restrain Israel to ensure we aren’t sucked back in.