A Sceptical Man

Reactions to the RBI cap on open positions in the onshore forex mkt -Bankers shocked by this sudden cap imposition -Say total positons that need to be wound down could be $40 bn, probabaly more if one counts options -If difference between $-rupee rate in NDF mkt & onshore mkt on Monday rises to say Re 1, mark-to-mkt losses for banks would be $40bnxRe1= Rs4000cr. -This Rs4,000 cr is between foreign, pvt & PSU banks -Being year-end this loss may have to be booked in FY26 P&L -Bankers are hoping RBI will tweak rules a little by tomorrow morning: -Very optimistic ask: RBI grandfathers current open positions, says rule applies to fresh positions only -Moderately optimistic hope: RBI gives 3 months time to bring down open positions to $100mln -Less optimistic hope: RBI extends time to bring down open positions to April 30, i.e. 1 month -Pessimistic position: RBI doesn't budge

Just as in Gaza, Israel has been targeting schools and universities in Iran. The US did NOT target or bomb universities in Afghanistan & Iraq. Bombing universities is the Israeli mode of warfare. Further evidence suggesting that Trump has given the wheel to Israel in this war

The attempt to destroy Iranian knowledge Yesterday, March 26th, the Isfahan University of Technology was targeted. Today, the 27th, the Tehran University of Technology also came under heavy bombardment. These events reinforce my previous point that one of the primary objectives of this conflict is the destruction of Iranian academic and scientific knowledge.

Crossed the Strait Of Hormuz successfully but now stuck at Sakinaka Signal 🚥 🥹😂🥹😂🥹

On-ground checks amid ongoing global tensions — what we are seeing so far: Over the past few days, our team connected with multiple companies across sectors to understand how the current situation is unfolding at the ground level. A few key observations: 1. Demand remains resilient across sector till now Encouragingly, there is no visible demand destruction so far. Most of sectors in-fact said demand has been quite decent till now. For eg: most auto ancillary companies indicated that OEM schedules for even April–May remain healthy. However, given recent price increases across sector, some moderation in demand over the coming months cannot be ruled out. 2.Margins holding up (for now) Margins remain stable as companies are still consuming lower-cost inventory.Price hikes have been meaningful across sectors, and most corporates are proactively securing raw material supplies to ensure business continuity. However if situation persist then margin headwind could be see in 1Q and part could be negated by higher top-line growth. 3. Shift towards shorter-term contracts: There is a clear preference for shorter-duration contracts—fortnightly or monthly—on both raw materials and finished goods. With uncertainty around commodity prices, companies are avoiding long-term commitments at elevated levels. 4. Unorganised sector under pressure, market share shift to leaders across sectors Smaller players are facing challenges due to working capital constraints and raw material volatility. This is leading to a gradual shift in market share towards stronger, well-capitalised leaders. 5. Labour availability becoming a constraint for MSMEs: Several companies highlighted emerging labour challenges. In certain pockets, workers are returning to their villages due to issues like LPG availability, upcoming elections, and lingering fears of a Covid-like disruption. This is beginning to impact operations across small scale industries. 6. Logistics disruptions increasing lead times: Logistics is becoming a bottleneck, with fuel availability at highways turning inconsistent. Delivery timelines, which were earlier around 4 days, are now stretching to 7–8 days in many cases. Freight rates from China to India has gone by 2x. 7. Chemicals sector seeing tailwinds: The chemical sector continues to witness strong demand. Supply pressures from China have eased due to logistics disruptions and currency movements, supporting better spreads. However, raw material availability remains a constraint. 8. Petrochemical chain seeing availability constraints: The broader petrochemical value chain is witnessing both availability constraints and pricing volatility, creating uncertainty across multiple downstream industries. 9. Innovation and adaptability on display Encouragingly, companies are responding with agility. For instance, some AC/EMS players that were dependent on gas cylinders for welding and paint shops are now shifting to alternative processes like oxy-acetylene, helping mitigate supply disruptions and maintain continuity. 10. Preparing for structurally higher energy costs Many corporates believe that even if the war subsides, oil prices may remain elevated. Countries are likely to build strategic reserves after this energy shock, keeping demand firm. As a result, the entire oil value chain could see sustained inflation—creating top-line tailwinds for several sectors, even as cost pressures persist. 11.Inflation: not all bad for earnings A moderate level of inflation is often supportive for corporate earnings and nominal GDP growth, as it drives higher realisations and revenue growth. While there could be some pressure on margins and currency in the near term, the overall setup remains constructive. Periods like these often accelerate market share gains for stronger players, while also setting the stage for nominal growth tailwinds in an inflationary environment.

Iran has agreed to allow 20 Pakistani‑flagged vessels to transit the Strait of Hormuz, in what Pakistan has called a meaningful step towards easing the energy crisis. This comes as various foreign ministers arrive in Islamabad for regional talks aimed at ending the war.

Indonesia, the world's largest nickel producer, is engineering a sharp contraction in mining output for 2026, proposing ore extraction quotas of 260-270 mnt well below both last year's record 379 mnt and estimated domestic demand of around 330 mnt.