Honest Degen

✅ SUNDAY JUNE 14 CARD | MLB + WNBA + World Cup 5 plays • 7u total exposure MLB 1. Phillies ML -128 → 1.5u (B+) 2. Dodgers -1.5 -114 → 1u (B) 3. Rays ML +135 → 1.5u (B+) WNBA 4. Dream -6.5 -110 → 1u (B) World Cup 5. Netherlands +0.5 -123 → 2u (B+) Model’s cooking today. Full transparency — every pick tracked, every result posted. Who are you riding with? Drop your favorite play below 👇 honestdegen.com

@GuGaBetss Let’s Ride Together GuGa! #honestdegen

ATP Stuttgart 🇩🇪 🇺🇸 Taylor Fritz ML (@ 1.90/-111) Hit 𝗟𝗜𝗞𝗘 - If you’re 𝗧𝗔𝗜𝗟𝗜𝗡𝗚 🍀 If you look at the way the board is set up, the market is pricing this like a standard, highly competitive all American blockbuster, but they are totally ignoring the massive disparity in energy levels and freshness heading into Sunday. Taylor is coming into this championship match looking absolutely pristine, having completely revitalized his game the second he stepped onto the lawns after a miserable spring where physical setbacks forced him to sit out virtually the entire clay stretch. This specific surface is where his heavy flat hitting and low cutting baseline game truly shine, which is exactly why a massive chunk of his biggest career milestones have happened on the green stuff, and he just put on an absolute clinic in the semifinals by completely dismantling his opponent in straight sets in barely over an hour. The entire handicap of this bet boils down to the fact that Ben Shelton is going to be stepping onto the court looking like an absolute zombie after the nightmare schedule he just endured. Because the weather totally messed up the timing earlier in the week, he was forced to play an insane amount of tennis in a single afternoon, grinding through a messy completion of his morning match before immediately turning around and enduring a soul crushing, three hour marathon packed with high stress tie-breaks. Spending more than four hours scraping by and throwing your body around on a slick surface like grass takes a massive physical and mental toll, and there is simply no way his legs are going to recover from that kind of exhaustion in less than twenty-four hours, especially when he has to go up against a fresh, elite-level player who is holding serve with absolute ease. While the public might see two explosive players and expect a tight, back and forth thriller, the reality is that Fritz is completely rested and dialed in on the exact courts where he plays his best tennis, while Shelton is walking into a physical buzzsaw with an empty gas tank. #ATP #ATPStuttgart #Gambling𝕏

@wagsischasing I’m on ML as well. Let’s get it wags.

ATP Stuttgart 🎾 Taylor Fritz ML (-115) (3%) 🐳 We hammered Fritz yesterday and we’re hammering him again against Ben Shelton in the final. Fritz is defending his title and just naturally loves the conditions in Stuttgart, which fits his game. Shelton played two matches yesterday. Shelton had to finish his match with Shimobukuro, which went to three sets, and then played a three hour, grinder with Lehecka that resulted in three tiebreakers. That’s ALOT of time on court, especially in one day. I do expect Shelton to be sluggish, however, he does possess scamming sorcery. Shelton has been vulnerable and he’s put himself in vulnerable situations. On grass, Shelton’s return game is not a strong suit and I do expect Fritz to command the serve and find holds to come easily. Fritz has looked more confident on the surface and I do expect him to defend his title.

🎾 OFFICIAL PLAY 🔥 Taylor Fritz ML (-120) Grade: B+ Units: 1.5u Fritz has the cleaner grass-court profile, a less taxing semifinal path, and the moneyline avoids tiebreak/game-spread variance against Shelton’s serve. Let the math work. HonestDegen.com #Tennis #TaylorFritz #HonestDegen

@PicksOffice Nice hit man. We both cashed World Cup today

Australia +0.5 (+125) / Under 2.5 (-120) ✅ Final: Australia 2, Turkey 0 Australia never needed the half goal. Irankunda put them up in the 27th, then Metcalfe made it 2-0 in the 75th while Turkey kept chasing without finding one. That same script protected the total. First goal before halftime, second late enough to keep the match out of chaos, and no Turkey response. Great start to the World Cup.

😂 Bryce calling a 3-leg -124 “lock” with $10k on the line. I avoid parlays too… variance laughs at my singles daily. Today: scrappy +0.19u green day (full recap attached). Model stayed disciplined. Long-term hit rate on these locks? Asking for the degenerates 😂 honestdegen.com/?x1

I never do parlays but this is a lock for even money tbh

@DraftKings Thankfully we cashed on 1st Q Spurs bets. He needs to hit the gym with Giannis in the offseason

Wemby didn't shy away from how he thought the series went against the Knicks... 👀

@BookitWithTrent Trent, I remember the 1-0 World Cup start. Where is the updated tracker? 🤣

turkey fuckin sucks

😂 “Easiest World Cup lotto ever” Famous last words before the bookie buys a new yacht. Love the confidence though 🔥 Today was a scrappy +0.19u green day while variance laughed at me. I track every degen pick with full wins/losses (no cherry-picking). What’s your long-term hit rate on these 3-leg bangers? Asking for a friend who hates variance 😂 honestdegen.com

The easiest World Cup lotto ever.

✅ SATURDAY RECAP | +0.19u GREEN DAY 2-3 overall but the model stayed disciplined. WINS (+3.69u) 1. Morocco +0.5 — +1.88u ✅ 2. Spurs 1Q -2.5 — +1.82u ✅ LOSSES (-3.50u) 1. D-backs F5 -0.5 — -1u ❌ 2. Lynx +2.5 — -1.5u ❌ 3. Wings -5.5 — -1u ❌ Net: +0.19u ✅ Book it. Green day. On to the next. Stay disciplined. Trust the process. Every pick tracked. Every result posted. No cherry-picking. What was your biggest hit/miss yesterday? Drop it below 👇 honestdegen.com

@gavinmchughh Spurs up 7 going into the 4th? Couldn’t be me, I already collected in the 1st quarter 😎”

If we have learned anything about this series the Spurs are up 7 going into the fourth?? Knicks might as well be up 15.

@br_betting 5th Finals game, and we’ve cashed Spurs 1Q three straight. Same read every time. They punch first, NY adjusts late, so you bet the quarter and skip the 48. Construction over side. 🤝

Betting the Spurs in the first quarter during the Finals has been a money-printing machine 🤑

@FanaticsBook This stat is the whole bet. +66 in the first quarter, then NY claws it back over 48 which is why the edge was always Spurs 1Q, not the full game. Took 1Q -2.5 again tonight, cashed it 23-13. Bet the quarter the data screams, skip the funeral. 🤝

The Spurs are a +66 in the first quarter this series 🤯🤯

Spurs 1Q -2.5 ✅ 23-13 after one. Called the early punch all week, took the quarter over the 48. +1.82u. 🤝

NBA add to the Saturday card 🏀 Spurs 1Q -2.5 (-110) · B+ · 2u The thesis I’ve been studying all week: Spurs have owned the first quarter every game, Knicks start flat and adjust late. Isolating the early punch before the collapse risk and the Knicks’ clutch edge kick in. Full game’s a different bet this is the one with the edge.

Saturday June 13 — Official Card 📒 ⚾️ Diamondbacks F5 -0.5 (-110) · B · 1u 🌍 Morocco +0.5 (+125) · B+ · 1.5u 🏀 Lynx +2.5 (-110) · B+ · 1.5u 🏀 Wings -5.5 (-110) · B · 1u 5.0u official. NBA add drops in this thread once the model confirms the Spurs/Knicks number. Every pick tracked. Every result posted.

Morocco +0.5 +125 ✅ 1-1 final. The half-hook is the whole point here. Draw was always live against Brazil, and +0.5 turns the draw into a win instead of a sweat. Moneyline bettors needed the upset; we just needed them to not lose. Construction over side. 🤝

This is the whole case for the 1Q angle in one quote. The book needs Spurs -6 over 48 minutes but San Antonio’s edge is the first quarter (won it by 11.75 a game this series, and 23-13 again tonight), then NY adjusts and closes. I took Spurs 1Q -2.5 and let the books sweat the full-game number. Cashed the quarter, skipped the funeral risk.

NBA Finals Odds: Knicks vs. Spurs Game 6 is on deck. And @BetMGM is seeing bettors hit the underdog Knicks, spread and moneyline. From trading manager Tristan Davis: ""It's simple tonight. The Spurs are a big win for us. We need the Spurs to win by six or more." Much more below at the link🔽🔽

Said the edge was the first quarter all week, not the full game. Spurs 1Q -2.5 ✅ — 23-13 after one. The construction was the whole point: own the early punch, skip the late-collapse risk. On the sheet 🤝

11.75 a quarter is exactly why my only play here is Spurs 1Q -2.5, not the full game. They’ve owned the opening 12 every game, then NY adjusts and closes late. I want the early punch and none of the 4th-quarter collapse risk. Books even shade the 1Q line to -2.5/-125 because everyone sees it and it’s still worth it at -110 where I grabbed it.

The Spurs have won the 1st Quarter by an average of 11.75 points in the Finals 👀 Do they come out hot in an elimination game? 🤔

@MrInd1ana Spurs are dead” on the full game might be right — but that’s exactly why I’m only on Spurs 1Q -2.5, not the 48 minutes. They start fast every game this series, then NY adjusts and closes. Betting the early punch, not the funeral.

NBA POD ⛹🏽‍♂️🦦 Knicks +6.5 (-119) Spurs are dead.

85% of ML bets on the Knicks and the books still have the Spurs -5.5 / -205? When the public piles one way and the number doesn’t budge, that’s the house telling you who they’re comfortable with. I’m on Spurs 1Q -2.5 on the card. The early burst is where San Antonio’s edge lives before the Knicks’ late adjustments. Sharp money and the line agree here.

THE PUBLIC IS RIDING WITH THE KNICKS HEAVY TONIGHT 🗽 🍎 85% of ML bets 🍎 60% of ML handle 🍎 67% of spread bets 🍎 68% of spread handle KNICKS. IN. 5? 🧐