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White House confirms more US-Iran peace deal talks are actively being discussed, even as traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains at a near standstill. That disconnect is the real story. Trump tied the ceasefire to the strait reopening, but ships still aren't moving freely. Whether these talks produce anything concrete or just more headlines is the question the oil market is pricing in right now.

$COST reported an interesting shift in how its members are spending. Shoppers are pulling back on discretionary items and trading down in some categories, but traffic and membership renewal rates remain strong. The core business is holding up, but the mix is changing in ways that reflect broader consumer caution heading into the back half of the year. This lines up with what Albertsons flagged earlier this week about softer consumer behavior. When two very different retailers are seeing the same thing, it starts to look less like a company-specific issue and more like a macro signal worth watching.

Albertsons missed its sales estimates and issued a weak outlook, blaming slower GLP-1 drug adoption and higher gas prices for squeezing its customers. The company also announced a $774 million settlement to resolve opioid-related claims, adding another layer of pressure. The stock was falling Tuesday afternoon on the combined news.

S&P 500 closed higher for the second straight session as traders bet on a US-Iran nuclear deal getting done. The index has now recovered nearly all of its April losses. With the Warsh confirmation hearing set, shipping traffic holding, and talks still technically alive, markets are choosing to look past the noise for now.

Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz appears to be holding up despite weeks of tensions, with more than 20 commercial vessels making the transit in the last 24 hours according to the Wall Street Journal. That is a meaningful data point. All the talk of a blockade has not yet translated into a shutdown of actual vessel movement, which may explain why oil markets have not fully priced in a worst-case scenario.

European nations are deploying mine-clearing vessels and military ships to the Strait of Hormuz, a direct operational step beyond the diplomatic positioning covered earlier today. This is significant because it signals Europe is not waiting on Washington. If mine-clearing operations actually begin, that could meaningfully reduce the shipping risk premium that has been keeping oil elevated and freight costs high across global supply chains.

The S&P 500 is back within striking distance of all-time highs even as the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, which is a striking disconnect from where sentiment was just weeks ago. The risks that could break the rally are pretty clear: a breakdown in Iran talks, an oil price spike that reignites inflation fears, or a weaker-than-expected earnings season that forces the market to reckon with actual economic damage from the tariff and supply chain disruption. Right now the market is pricing in a soft landing that is far from guaranteed. Worth noting that the $6 trillion recovery in market cap since late March happened while the Hormuz situation was still unresolved. That tells you the market is betting hard on a diplomatic off-ramp. If that bet goes wrong, the unwind could be fast.

Europe is breaking away from the US on Hormuz security in a significant way. Macron's plan calls for an international defensive naval mission that explicitly excludes the "belligerent" parties, meaning the US, Israel, and Iran. European diplomats are confirming that European vessels would not operate under American command. This is a direct signal that Europe is not waiting for Washington to lead. A separate European-commanded naval coalition protecting shipping lanes changes the geopolitical calculus in the region considerably, and raises the question of how the US responds to being sidelined from a mission in its own strategic backyard.

$NVDA just unveiled NVIDIA Ising, which it calls the world's first open AI models designed to accelerate the development of useful quantum computers. This is a significant move into the quantum space. Quantum computing has long been stuck in the "theoretically powerful but practically useless" phase, and Nvidia is now throwing its AI weight behind closing that gap faster.

IEA chief Fatih Birol says Iran was not weeks or months away from building a nuclear weapon, pushing back on the threat framing that has dominated markets since tensions escalated. This matters because the geopolitical risk premium baked into oil prices has been partly tied to the assumption that Iran was close to weaponization. If that premise is wrong, the urgency around military action and Hormuz disruption looks different.

Already covered the Warsh confirmation hearing. SKIP

$NVDA is now up 18% over a 10-day winning streak, its longest run in months. The company also shot down acquisition rumors today, telling CNBC directly that it is "not engaged in discussions" about buying a major PC company. The denial itself is noteworthy because Nvidia rarely responds to M&A speculation, which tells you how loud those rumors got.

Iran's nuclear negotiating team walked out of US talks in Islamabad on April 11 and flew back to Tehran after sharp internal divisions split the delegation, with the order to leave coming directly from Iran's top security official. This is not a routine recess. A walkout ordered from the top signals the talks collapsed from within, not from the US side. That changes the diplomatic calculus significantly and raises fresh questions about whether a deal is even possible in the near term.

ECB policymaker Dolenc says the central bank will have a clearer picture of the Iran conflict's economic impact by April and June, signaling the ECB is watching the crisis closely before making any policy moves. With European growth already under pressure, a prolonged Hormuz disruption would complicate the ECB's rate path significantly. The next two meetings are now key dates to watch.

The S&P 500 has added nearly $6 trillion in market cap since March 30th, and what's driving it looks like one of the biggest short squeezes in recent memory. Hedge fund short exposure to US ETFs collapsed in just 5 trading days, going from the highest levels since May 2025 to below 97% of historical readings. When shorts get squeezed at that speed and scale, the buying is forced, not fundamental. The rally feels real when you're watching it. The mechanics behind it are worth understanding.

Kevin Warsh's Fed Chair confirmation hearing is locked in for April 21 before the Senate Banking Committee. This is the formal start of what could be a significant transition at the Fed. Warsh has been a vocal critic of the current pace of rate cuts and is seen as more hawkish than Powell, so the hearing will be closely watched for any signals on where monetary policy heads next.

$NFLX is moving higher ahead of Q1 earnings, which drop after the bell today. The street is watching closely for subscriber numbers and any commentary on ad-tier growth. Margins and forward guidance will matter just as much as the top line given how much the stock has run this year.

Drone attacks are continuing inside Iraqi Kurdistan even after the US-Iran ceasefire, and this is the second strike since that deal was reached. That ceasefire is looking shakier by the hour. The Kurdistan Region sits at the crossroads of US military logistics and Iranian proxy influence, so attacks there are not just local noise. Oil infrastructure in northern Iraq runs through this area and any escalation that disrupts Kurdish Regional Government operations could ripple through regional supply chains fast.

$ORCL is surging for a second straight day as the AI infrastructure buildout keeps fueling demand for its cloud platform. The catalyst today is an expanded capacity agreement with Bloom Energy, which is spiking 23% on the news. Bloom supplies fuel cell power systems and has been positioning itself as a data center power solution at a time when the grid simply cannot keep up with AI electricity demand. Oracle locking in more of that capacity signals the company is serious about scaling its data center footprint fast.

Ken Griffin says Trump got overconfident on Iran after the quick wins in Venezuela, and that miscalculation is now a central issue as the Hormuz standoff drags on. Griffin has been one of the more vocal voices on this conflict from the finance world. He already warned this week that a prolonged closure would trigger a global recession. This latest comment suggests he thinks the diplomatic situation was misread from the start.

China's oil supply chain may be more resilient to a Hormuz blockade than most realize. Before the war, China was already sourcing roughly 20% of its oil from Russia, which moves overland and through pipelines entirely bypassing the strait. The remaining 26% came from non-Middle Eastern sources. So even in a worst-case scenario where Middle Eastern shipments get disrupted, China has diversified supply lines that most other major importers simply do not have. This is a key reason why Beijing has not been panicking over the Hormuz standoff the way European nations have. The IMF flagged the UK as the most exposed developed economy earlier today. China is sitting in a structurally different position. The countries without that kind of diversification, particularly in Europe and Southeast Asia, are the ones facing real supply shock risk if the blockade extends.