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Steve Stanton at SOT Advisory
6K posts
Steve Stanton at SOT Advisory
@baaslaunch
Strategy Ops & Tech are Steve's "bread & butter". Launching BaaS & Embedded Finance with Community Banks & Fintechs. Cross-Functional execution.
USA Beigetreten Ekim 2022
668 Folgt264 Follower
@JoshPhillipsPhD You want enough money to attract the best and brightest.
Enough so that they don't supplement with graft and insider trading.
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I actually like the Singapore approach.
Pay the top tier of public servants a LOT of money. $500k would be OK.
Then prosecute them aggressively if they or anyone in their family/friend circles get even one penny of outside money connected to their office/access.
This includes stock picking. Blind trust, index only.
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No public servant should make more than $250,000.
This is obscene.
Corey A. DeAngelis, school choice evangelist@DeAngelisCorey
These 15 public school superintendents in Texas make more than the President of the United States x.com/i/broadcasts/1…
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@VladimiLoj @kimmonismus We are aligned on the tech capabilities.
We may differ on anticipated pace of changes in culture and aggressiveness of regulatory response.
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@baaslaunch @kimmonismus No, but this is a new shift.
Previously intelligence was highly valued in the job market, with this shift technology is now replacing intelligence.
What new jobs will come for humans is very uncertain.
Also add robotics +AI for manual labor soon.
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S&P 500 grew 3X since then.
Wages shrank as a share because markets returned so much.
That price signal encouraged more investment into USA... Along with jobs.
TO BE CLEAR: Policy should absolutely encourage jobs & wage growth.
But the problem isn't low corp taxes...
It's high taxes & reg burdens on labor.
It costs ~$215k to pay a nominal salary of $200k to someone in New York... And they would take home just about HALF of that gross number.
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In 2017, the government cut the corporate tax rate from 35% to 21%. Corporations promised to raise worker wages with the savings.
Here’s what they actually did. S&P 500 buybacks jumped 55% in one year, from $519 billion in 2017 to $806 billion in 2018. By 2024, buybacks hit a record $942.5 billion. Goldman Sachs projects they’ll cross $1 trillion in 2025. Every dollar of buybacks inflates the stock price. The top 10% of Americans own 87% of all stocks. The bottom 50% own roughly 1%.
So the government cut taxes on corporations. Corporations sent the cash to shareholders. Shareholders were already the wealthiest people in the country. Then the government said “we’re all in this together.”
Run the scoreboard. Workers’ share of GDP hit 53.8% in Q3 2025, the lowest since the Bureau of Labor Statistics started tracking in 1947. It was 70% back then. Fortune 500 profits hit a record $1.87 trillion in 2024. The top 1% now hold $55 trillion in wealth. The bottom 50%, all 66 million households, hold $4.1 trillion.
The gap between corporate profits and worker compensation as a share of GDP is now the widest since World War II. Airlines are building $25,000 first-class suites while McDonald’s sells $5 value meals. Both rational responses to the same economy splitting in half.
The meme is a period drama. The Federal Reserve’s data from last quarter says the ratio is generous.
Chris Katelaris@big_chocky
When the government tells you: “We’re in the same boat”
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@DrBenTapper1 There are new designs with much more recycling, less evaporation, and more gray water usage.
And there are places with abundant cooling water.
This is something to keep an eye on... To be sure the right solutions are used in the right locations.
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AI data centers can use up to five million gallons of water each day. Am I the only one concerned about how this could pose a serious threat to our farmers and our food supply? What happens when these centers seriously strain our aquifers and dry up irrigation systems? Is it really worth it?
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@VladimiLoj @kimmonismus Note: Just because AI can outperform humans...
Doesn't imply the human jobs disappear.
Tesla FSD outperforms human drivers in safety today.
AI outperforms human doctors in some diagnostic medicine areas today.
Uber drivers and MD's are still a thing.
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@baaslaunch @kimmonismus The chance is you spend 3-5 years educating and then still have no career or you have studied 5 years for a 1 year career.
Hard to see anything in AI that AI itself cannot do better in 3-5 years.
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@VladimiLoj @kimmonismus It's all about timescale.
Some roles safe 1 year.
Some 3 years.
Some 5+ years.
But >20?
Maybe reenactment players like renaissance fairs LARPing the early 2000's
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@baaslaunch @kimmonismus I mostly mean it's almost impossible to tell which areas the agents have not replaced the humans in a few years.
Personally I have a hard time to see any area where the top mgmt would not just use agents directly.
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@VladimiLoj @kimmonismus Even the most optimistic projections don't have AI replacing ALL humans in a 6-18 month timeframe.
There will still be LOTS of humans working.
But even a 10-20% job loss would be a depression-level labor market event.
>30% would be....
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Spend the next 1-2 years gaining skills that will remain relevant in the AI world... And make some $$ so you have resources for the gap between income loss and material abundance.
The bad/good news... If it takes longer than 12-18 months, hey you're making money!
If it's sooner... Hey soon you don't need money!
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you have 12-18 months left
Beff (e/acc)@beffjezos
When you realize we have entered the singularity and you are running out of time
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My comments are NOT "anti-union"...
The relevant comparison in ANY business situation is:
"Compared to what?"
Unions have their place. Hollywood studios really did abuse their power, collude, blacklist, etc... Counterbalances were appropriate.
But if you can make 90 minutes of good content with some buddies and some laptops.... The multi-million dollar alternative starts to look overpriced.
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@Charles_SoCal @FARlikewhoa @Lesbrowsngact As compared to inflated “healthcare and pension” requirements (among other things) imposed by Unions in the US.
Steve Stanton at SOT Advisory@baaslaunch
The Hollywood cost structure was too high before generative AI. A growing percentate of footage was filmed/created in Canada and other locations (eg other states in USA). Now that generative AI can create Hollywood-level clips in minutes while sitting on your couch with a $300 Chromebook... The cost drivers that made sense 50 years ago suddenly become obsolete.... NYC taxi medallions were >$1m in 2011-2014. Rideshare apps caused an 80-90% collapse in the value. Entertainment is going through the same thing... This is not opinion. This is a reality that must be navigated. Here's a quick Google AI result explaining some drivers of movie production costs in Hollywood: Unions and organizations in the USA, particularly in California, increase film production costs through negotiated wage minimums, strict, expensive overtime rules, mandatory pension/health contributions, and required staffing minimums (featherbedding). Key organizations adding to costs include SAG-AFTRA, IATSE, Teamsters Local 399, and the WGA/DGA. Primary Unions and Organizations Driving Costs SAG-AFTRA (Screen Actors Guild - American Federation of Television and Radio Artists): Covers actors and talent, requiring minimum pay rates and adding 21% or more on top of actor pay for pension and health funds. IATSE (International Alliance of Theatrical Stage Employees): Represents technicians, artisans, and craftspersons (camera operators, grips, hair/makeup, hair designers). They enforce strict rules on daily turnaround times, mandatory meal breaks, and higher rates for weekend work. Teamsters Local 399: Represents drivers, animal handlers, location managers, and casting directors. They ensure minimum staffing for vehicle transport and location services, often increasing transportation budgets. WGA (Writers Guild of America) & DGA (Directors Guild of America): Dictate minimum compensation and residual structures for writers and directors. Art Directors Guild (ADG, IATSE Local 800): Represents production designers and set designers.📷California Film Commission (.gov) +6 Specific Cost Drivers (Especially in California) High Mandatory Fringe Benefits: In addition to pay, producers must pay into union health and pension plans, which can significantly raise the total cost of labor, particularly with SAG-AFTRA and IATSE. Strict Labor Compliance: California's labor laws, combined with union agreements, require adherence to specific, high-cost rules regarding overtime, meal penalties (e.g., if lunch is delayed by minutes), and mandatory rest periods. Staffing Requirements: Unions often require specific numbers of crew members, even if the producer feels they are not necessary, increasing the overall cost. Administrative Expenses: Managing union compliance requires dedicated staff or services to handle complex, specialized payroll
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Production days in LA are down nearly half and the entertainment industry is feeling it. A friend, who has been working as an editor for over 25 years, compared it to a coal mine shutting down.
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The Hollywood cost structure was too high before generative AI. A growing percentate of footage was filmed/created in Canada and other locations (eg other states in USA).
Now that generative AI can create Hollywood-level clips in minutes while sitting on your couch with a $300 Chromebook...
The cost drivers that made sense 50 years ago suddenly become obsolete....
NYC taxi medallions were >$1m in 2011-2014.
Rideshare apps caused an 80-90% collapse in the value.
Entertainment is going through the same thing... This is not opinion. This is a reality that must be navigated.
Here's a quick Google AI result explaining some drivers of movie production costs in Hollywood:
Unions and organizations in the USA, particularly in California, increase film production costs through negotiated wage minimums, strict, expensive overtime rules, mandatory pension/health contributions, and required staffing minimums (featherbedding). Key organizations adding to costs include SAG-AFTRA, IATSE, Teamsters Local 399, and the WGA/DGA.
Primary Unions and Organizations Driving Costs
SAG-AFTRA (Screen Actors Guild - American Federation of Television and Radio Artists): Covers actors and talent, requiring minimum pay rates and adding 21% or more on top of actor pay for pension and health funds.
IATSE (International Alliance of Theatrical Stage Employees): Represents technicians, artisans, and craftspersons (camera operators, grips, hair/makeup, hair designers). They enforce strict rules on daily turnaround times, mandatory meal breaks, and higher rates for weekend work.
Teamsters Local 399: Represents drivers, animal handlers, location managers, and casting directors. They ensure minimum staffing for vehicle transport and location services, often increasing transportation budgets.
WGA (Writers Guild of America) & DGA (Directors Guild of America): Dictate minimum compensation and residual structures for writers and directors.
Art Directors Guild (ADG, IATSE Local 800): Represents production designers and set designers.📷California Film Commission (.gov) +6
Specific Cost Drivers (Especially in California)
High Mandatory Fringe Benefits: In addition to pay, producers must pay into union health and pension plans, which can significantly raise the total cost of labor, particularly with SAG-AFTRA and IATSE.
Strict Labor Compliance: California's labor laws, combined with union agreements, require adherence to specific, high-cost rules regarding overtime, meal penalties (e.g., if lunch is delayed by minutes), and mandatory rest periods.
Staffing Requirements: Unions often require specific numbers of crew members, even if the producer feels they are not necessary, increasing the overall cost.
Administrative Expenses: Managing union compliance requires dedicated staff or services to handle complex, specialized payroll
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@data_republican 1. Bots can publish some viral content that attracts legit likes.
2. Bots can also like each other.
If you were creating bots... Whether for spammy revenue reasons or nefarious reasons (eg influence ops)...
Wouldn't you want bots that get likes and evade detection?
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Is it a reality that some bot accounts have more than 500 followers?
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I would LOVE to see @mcuban accelerating a restructuring of the USA medical & pharma sectors...
And drive rollout of genomics to cure metaboloic and genetic disorders... Starting with simple single-location edits for rare degenerative diseases.... Clock is ticking for these patients.
Mark Cuban@mcuban
Everyone wants me to rip on TrumpRx. Reality is, it’s saving patients money on IVF and a few other drugs. A lot of money. IMO, anything that saves patients money is a win. And they truly do have some great people that are making smart moves. You just don’t know their names. Chris Klomp. Mark Atalla, Abe Sutton and so many more. When you talk to them, and see the work they put in, it’s obvious they are focused on trying to do the right thing for patients. Don’t forget they didn’t give the insurance industry a price increase they wanted, and those stock prices got crushed. TrumpRx is just getting started. @costplusdrugs is just getting started.
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@nikitabier Maybe Apple should have some sort of AI to assist...
But who will they buy it from?
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iOS developers: How long is App Review taking for everyone these days?
It is now taking longer to get our app approved than it is to build the actual features.
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@MarioNawfal @elonmusk Milton Friedman used other words to make this same point.
Glad Elon is spreading the word to those Milton didn't yet reach.
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Elon: ”Money is really an information system for labor allocation".
It is not power. It is not wealth.
@elonmusk just reframed everything you think you know about money.
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@joeroganhq Faster, please.
Macular degeneration robs people of eyesight.
It would be awesome if they could watch a movie or go signtseeing with close to 20/20 vision again.
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Elon Musk: "In the next 6 to 12 months, we’ll be doing our first implants for vision, where even if somebody is completely blind, we can write directly to the visual cortex."
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@atensnut Without consequences...
The incentives skew towards a lot more criminality preying upon innocents.
In a civilized society, potential criminals should be deterred by fear of consequences.
Why do we make Batman and Dirty Harry so popular?
Because we know.
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Man tries to steal car from 80 yo woman. She said “Ain’t happening.” 😳
He ended up crawling away.
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Hot take:
It's a good thing for gas prices to spike now and then (temporarily!).
Yes, I know there's some pain.
Yes, I know it hurts incumbent presidents.
But it does create a nudge towards more energy efficient and cleaner transport.
It's the "hot stove" lesson.
You don't learn otherwise.
I don't want byzantine govt mandates and complex regs to make progress.
I just don't want the govt nerfing the price signals when there's a "hot stove" teachable moment.
To be clear: I want much cheaper energy in general, with long term forces driving clean energy close to zero marginal cost... But we don't get from here to there driving empty Chevy Suburbans and parking them in poorly insulated houses.
Commuting should be in small, efficient vehicles.
Large vehicles should be for large loads (people/cargo).
Homes should all be insulated to the standards of new construction in suburbs of Buffalo New York. (It costs a lot more to heat a house in Texas when it's 40 degrees out than a new home in Buffalo when it's 10 degrees out.
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Congress adds between 50 cents to a gallon of gas. Then states add up to 70 cents more.
They can cut it tomorrow and make gas cheaper than before the war. But that would mean saying no to government spending. And no to donors.
Peter St Onge, Ph.D.@profstonge
Gas prices just hit $3.70 — up 25% in 17 days. There’s 5 ways Congress and states can immediately lower gas prices by up to $1.10. This could make gas *cheaper* than before the war.
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@readswithravi The Dilbert Principle
Atlas Shrugged
Three Languages of Politics (Arnold Kling)
Road to Serfdom (Hayek)
How to Fail at Everything and Still Win Big (Scott Adams)
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What's one book that changed how you see the world?
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A good sized human can hover @ 45 KW (or 65 HP) of sustained thrust.
That's about 25,000 Sony Discman equivalents.
For a million Sony Discmans (Discmen?)...
You can over 2 mid sized SUV's packed completely full of Sony Discmans (Discmen?).
This is the future we need.
(Yes, yes, I know thrust units are basically same as weight... But looking to convert thrust to meaningful units to discuss scaling electric power on the grid)
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Elon Musk: You can imagine a situation where we harness a million times more energy than all of Earth’s current electricity usage.
And that would still be only a millionth of the Sun’s energy output.
Think about that.
If Earth’s economy scaled 1,000,000× in electricity usage, we’d still be operating at just a fraction of what’s possible. So what does an economy — or an intelligence — using that level of energy actually look like?
What does it do? How does it think? What problems does it even consider worth solving?
“It’s going to be something pretty magnificent.”
The real question is: Are we even capable of understanding something at that scale?
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