Ben Bilski

TrueAI - one app for everything finance.

Every crypto founder thinks they need to time their token launch around bull markets. I always tell them they're wrong, launch timing doesn't matter. They never believe me. Well, I built a tool with Claude Code to analyze every token listing announced on the Binance blog to settle this once and for all. Here's what I found: Headline result: there is no statistically significant difference between tokens launched in bull vs bear markets (Mann-Whitney p = 0.81), meaning differences between bull and bear market tokens are indistinguishable from noise. It doesn't matter when you launch your token. How can I be sure of that? First, you have to be careful how you answer this question: people believe that it's better to launch tokens in bull markets, and there's more funding in bull markets, so there are many more tokens launched in bull markets. Because of this sample bias, you can't naively look at the proportion of top 100 tokens that were launched in bull markets. To correct for this, you need a clean selection criterion to compare the populations. The best dataset I found was looking at the Binance listings blog. Take every announced listing, tag them as during bull markets, bear markets, or neutral markets, and benchmark the relative performance of the bull vs bear populations. Filter out tokens that aren't independently priced (RWAs, stablecoins, LSTs etc.), and this gets you a total of ~200 tokens to benchmark. See the website below to explore the data & methodology in more detail. This finding is robust to almost any way you slice and dice the data. Now, if you're a founder, this analysis might not be the end of the story. Even if launching in a bear market doesn't predict long-term token performance, there are other advantages to launching in a bear market: less competition for talent, service providers are cheaper, exchange listings are less competitive. On the flipside, if you're doing a simultaneous token sale, you're likely to get more demand in a bull market. But on the whole, these things are probably a wash. The main thing is to just get your product out there and build something valuable. The example I always bring up to founders is that Solana launched 4 days after the COVID crash in 2020, when Bitcoin wicked down to $4K. It doesn't matter that much when you launch. Just launch.

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