Coffee Meets Capital

@SantiagoAuFund And I’d add can’t make semis in Korea because no helium or natural gas? Who else makes the most helium in the world and has been wanting fabs? $sndk $mu No natural gas for fertilizer? Funny we burn it here. If you were cynical enough we hit our biggest competitor in a duopoly

@SantiagoAuFund And note I am only speaking from a stocks/economy perspective. I know enough not to LARP on the military feasibility of doing it

/1 Iwill say this - it’s probably worth questioning whether retaking the strait will be a horrible boondoggle. It’s so consensus and polymarket is pricing high probability of an attempt. Examine the inversion. Many people are drawing Suez Canal allegories but it’s only a rhyme.

$SPY during iran oil crisis #1

$spy

@blondesnmoney I think the confusion in the debate on where value will accrue. The base assumption is a huge accumulation to disruptor types but that isn't even close to certain. There's also a subtle "death of the corporation" in the convo. what about the corporation's engineers?

@JasonStrom_ @GROK is this true

$SOC Stay DENIED. LET'S FUCKING GO.

@blueprintsmb22 Eh there is going back you have core finance skills probably similar type door busting work like getting into IB from a non target and might not end up in direct risk taking

Grabbed coffee w a younger guy at a hedge fund yesterday afternoon who asked me what I’ll do if this business pivot doesn’t work out. I laughed. I’m in my 40s and 3 years removed from working in a traditional job. Nobody is looking for me. Literally nobody. I don’t fit in a box. My skillset isn’t desirable (public markets and managing small manufacturing biz). Nobody wants to hire an older ex business owner. Recruiters will look at my resume and think skillset is weird and will he be willing to go from general to soldier? I told him if you are worried about maintaining career optionality, definitely don’t buy a business. That said I told him at some point in your life you need to stop hedging and lean into what you want to do long term.

@blondesnmoney The Q is if a market with a bunch 100 iq level participants isn’t already approximating AI in many ways

"We will not be replaced by these linear regressions" Same stuff as a stockbroker back in 1996. A few will make it, most, won't..

AGI already exists, these bots have a 140 level IQ. Just because it gets stumped by a question you can't answer either doesn't mean it isn't brilliant. Bunch of denial, yeah 80% of us are getting fired in 10 years

@MasaSonCap Strong runway imo

Latest grandiose Masa slides just dropped

@blondesnmoney Fidelitys app is the bear case for vibe coding and if AI will do anything

@blondesnmoney It’s old news - stat news reported possibility a month ago and politico last week

Not going to lie, was pretty convinced fake news and community notes being rare was going to destroy society over time but @grok actually doing a good job of arbiting bullshit on Twitter. Pleasantly surprised

If you are interested in working in restructuring investment banking or distressed investing, this thread is for you A collection of my restructuring, credit doc and liability management primers 🧵 1/ Restructuring 101: Restricted Subsidiaries