Sandman

CPI came in steady and #Bitcoin reacted exactly as expected, ripping past 96k. My latest market report is live: 12 charts, $BTC trading setups, dominance & rotation signals, and a high-conviction Chart of the Week with clear levels. sandmanresearch.com/p/bitcoin-surg…

To put it simply: I almost solely invest in the US, but I would always prefer the quality of life in Europe! Investing in the US and living in Europe is my sweetspot.

@amital13 scary

💥💥Uk 2y 100bp from 27/02 Wow

BTC.D #Bitcoin dominance is still stuck in a tight range (~58.6%–60%) and has been since September 2025, with a slight bearish tilt recently. Implication: This isn’t a risk-on environment, it’s consolidation. Until BTC.D breaks down decisively, sustained #altcoin outperformance remains unlikely. Patience > forcing rotation.

Rate cut expectations for 2026 just collapsed from ~3 to ~1 as oil surges and inflation risks return. The Fed is trapped: → Cut = fuel inflation → Hold = hit growth This policy tension is the macro story now, and it matters for #Bitcoin

Will $SOL hit $100 this week?

Macro chaos week: 21 central banks (2/3 of global GDP) set rates in 4 days. Fed Wednesday; ECB, BoE, BoJ & SNB all Thursday, arguably the riskiest day to hold positions in 2026. 💀

😴 #Crypto is signaling risk-off. Polymarket’s 15-min prediction markets saw weekly volume spike to ~$300M in Feb, then drop sharply in March, mirroring the pullback in equities. Fast money is stepping back, and sentiment is clearly cooling across risk assets.

Wednesday is the macro pivot: Feb PPI drops before the Fed decision. A hold is ~95% priced. With oil near $100 and inflation fears rising post-Iran tensions, rate cuts are off the table, Goldman now eyes September, markets maybe not until December.

@Schuldensuehner quite the correlation

Who’s right about Iran: Polymarket bettors or stock market traders? Chart via Bloomberg.

Superweek Begins 📅💥 21 central banks representing two-thirds of the global economy set rates in just four days. The Fed decides Wednesday, followed by the ECB, BOE, BOJ, and SNB on Thursday. #Bitcoin #Crypto #Macro Full market breakdown 👇 sandmanresearch.com/p/central-bank…

@KobeissiLetter And why exactly would they do that?

BREAKING: US Treasury Secretary Bessent says that the US is allowing Iranian oil tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.

@M_McDonough How long until IT-bros claim they vibe-coded this?

🚢 On Friday we launched near real-time Strait of Hormuz crossing data. Over the weekend added the Suez and Panama Canals. One screen. Three chokepoints. 30-minute updates. 🚫Hormuz: 2 vessels ✅Suez: 37 vessels ✅Panama: 36 vessels Two weeks into the conflict, Hormuz remains effectively shut. Iran's new supreme leader has vowed to keep it closed. Mines reported in the waterway. Brent above $100. Multiple navies planning escort missions. Suez and Panama running at normal levels tells you this isn't a global shipping crisis — it's a single-point-of-failure crisis. One chokepoint carrying 20% of the world's seaborne oil has gone to near zero. Powered by real-time AIS transponder data, tracking all inbound and outbound movements across all three chokepoints. Every metric available as a Bloomberg ticker — pull into Worksheets, build custom Charts, or set Alerts to monitor traffic shifts as they happen. Much more in development!

@neilksethi In other words, the market’s base case still seems to be a quick resolution (2–4 weeks). If the conflict drags on, we would likely see a broader risk-off move across markets.

BoA (Flannigan): We view BofA’s Global Financial Stress Indicator (GFSI) as a useful gauge of financial conditions (Exhibit 3). At a current level of 0.24, up from -0.09 on 2/17/26, it meets the threshold for heightened stress (>0), though it remains well below last year’s Liberation Day peak of 0.78. Other measures, such as Bloomberg’s high yield OAS (2.94% currently versus a 4.53% peak on 4/9/25), have widened over the past month but are not yet signaling meaningful financial stress, suggesting [quick (2-4 weeks) war resolution] remains the higher market implied probability. A sustained break above the 3.0%–3.25% HY OAS range would likely mark a tipping point.

Switzerland: the original safe haven 🇨🇭

@FICMBondTrader Local course opens up next week. Saw this just in time, gonna order. Thx.

This not a paid promotion but this is the best gift idea I’ve ever seen in my life for dudes

@yieldsearcher $BTC alone lost -50% prior to the war, while almost all altcoins have gotten demolished even before that.

Anyone noticing that crypto has been acting quite resiliently since the war, with Bitcoin practically flat since the war started? Doing better than gold and bonds, let alone equities.

So all of a sudden, all the #crypto traders on X became commodities specialists?

Does the Iran-Usrael-USA-Escalation surprise you? We covered Iran and possible implications for equities, #bitcoin and #crypto extensively for the past week. Our readers were prepared.

@AndreasSteno Nice!

@origoinvest just order a replacement keyboard mate, they‘re super fast

I’ll admit having never used any of these buttons Also could they include an annual cleaning service for $30k / year