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What I forecasted for the TOTAL crypto market cap in 2024-2025 (top picture) and what I forecast for TOTAL in 2026 (bottom picture).
- Bullish Q1 2026, with a possibility of new all time highs in TOTAL led by altcoins due to 3 month lag of liquidity increase from TGA drain in November 2025 and 'not QE' by the Fed in December 2025 (hence second, higher box with the question mark)
- Bearish Q2 2026, with a possibility that the crash starts around March due to debt refinancing causing a liquidity drain and/or a black swan event that creates an excuse for central banks to create liquidity to help with debt refinancing (which is arguably what happened in 2020)
- Bear market bottom around Q3 2026, with a possibility that the bottom is much lower than investors expect due to a new Fed chair who is more hawkish than investors expect (hence the second, lower box with the question mark)
- Recovery around Q4 2026 due to liquidity injections in Q2-Q3, with a possibility of a faster recovery than investors expect due to the potential for additional stimulus ahead of the 2025 midterms (hence the second, higher box with the question mark)

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