@beta_rank_fb Did any of the old numbers get restated? How far back can you go, just last year?
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Chip McDoom
3.8K posts
Chip McDoom
@davebaker
Finance, Politics, Fishing and College Football
Seattle Beigetreten Nisan 2010
356 Folgt95 Follower
Finally some new Nielsen numbers comps that make sense.
Andrew Marchand@AndrewMarchand
Super Bowl had 124.9M viewers on NBC. That is down from the 127.7M on Fox last year.
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Chip McDoom retweetet
Welcome to #NorthernDominanceDay
Since 2023, in NC-relevant postseason games versus out-of-region opponents, the North is ...
10-1 SUP
3-0 as AP underdog
3-0 if AP gap is 1
5-0 if AP gap is 1-3
10-1 ATS
The North combines the Northeast & Midwest into a unified region.
Andrew Percival@PDawg206
Given both recent performance and the magnitude (de-facto NCG) of tonight's clash ... If Indiana wins, I will be retiring the #SouthernDominanceDay hashtag indefinitely in favor of another similarly-themed hashtag. But only if Indiana wins. If they lose, it remains.
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Chip McDoom retweetet
Mark Cuban might win a national title after 1 year of investing in what was the worst program in CFB.
Phil Knight has to be sick.
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Tally an L - an emphatic one - for #SouthernDominanceDay. The 2nd widest margin of defeat in SDD-history.
Since 2006, in NC-relevant postseason games vs out-of-region opponents, the Deep South is ...
35-7 SUP
8-5 as underdog
11-3 as AP underdog
25-3 if AP gap < 4
30-11 ATS
Andrew Percival@PDawg206
Welcome to #SouthernDominanceDay, game 41 Since 2006, in NC-relevant postseason games versus out-of-region opponents, the Deep South is ... 34-6 SUP 7-4 as underdog 10-2 as AP underdog 24-3 if AP gap < 4 29-10 ATS Tonight, SDD-qualifying Alabama squares off with Oklahoma.
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Chip McDoom retweetet
In retrospect, over the last two years, maybe, just maybe, the fact that Vandy has become very competitive in the SEC is less about the Commodores becoming amazing all of the sudden, and more about the general weakening of the conference across the board.
Sure they’ve better, and give Pavia his flowers, but these same Vandy teams aren’t pulling huge upsets and challenging for a CCG spot in the SEC of 5-20 years ago.
The talent spreading around via NIL/TP does raise the profile of many programs quite a bit, but really pulls down the system of stacking the best of the 4/5⭐️ talent 3-4 deep at just a few program.
Skip Bayless@RealSkipBayless
Iowa 14, my Vanderbilt Commodores 3 at half. This is what happens when a team believes it belonged in the playoffs and winds up playing Iowa - IOWA? - in some no-name bowl in Tampa. Plus, Pavia blasted the Big 10 before the season and is surely hearing about it on every sack.
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@PDawg206 @GabyUrrutia247 If you still include select schools from Florida then, yes, the boundaries are arbitrary.
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@davebaker @GabyUrrutia247 Don't worry, I won't. The lines have never changed, and are far from arbitrary.
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Ohio State’s roster is littered with kids from South Florida who didn’t believe the vision of Mario Cristobal and Miami.
They just got beat by the group who did.
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@PDawg206 @Tequilla_UW The better critique is whether this game actually has any bearing on the national championship. Dubious. But I suppose if they lose to a non-southern school you'll be updating the table again.
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@Tequilla_UW No. There are SEC teams on the losing side of several of these games, and there are non-SEC teams on the winning side.
It's never been about the SEC, it's been about a particular region of the country with some very special attributes
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With Tulane's #SouthernDominanceDay win ...
Since 2006, when facing out-of-region opponents in NC-relevant postseason games, the Deep South is an astounding ...
34-6 SUP
------
7-4 as underdog
10-2 as AP underdog
24-3 if AP gap < 4
------
29-10 ATS
Andrew Percival@PDawg206
Welcome to #SouthernDominanceDay Since 2006, when facing out-of-region opponents in NC-relevant postseason games, the Deep South is an astounding ... 33-6 SUP ------ 6-4 as underdog 9-3 as AP underdog 23-3 if AP gap < 4 ------ 28-10 ATS Tulane is today's qualifying team.
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@PDawg206 Yeesh. That's a reach. You don't have to try so hard to data mine. You can play transitive with UW and Ole Miss vs WSU in 2025. At least that is the same season.
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@beta_rank_fb I think we know the next TV deal is unlikely to be what is hoped. Maybe the B1G is savvy for getting debt at equity terms for that eventuality. Sell high. Buy back low. Again, need to see it.
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@davebaker Well and what are the terms for the next TV deal? That is where the risk really lies.
I'd be a tad surprised if the terms don't have a lot of contingent language around the next TV deal.
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Eh, I always find it interesting that people fall for the financial terms okey doke.
It's like they've never seen bonds written in countries that prohibit usury.
Jon “JR” Rhoades@jrs_rankings
No, the Big Ten’s $2.4 billion deal with UC Investments does not create debt for the schools or the conference. • It is a capital investment, not a loan. It’s not private equity. • UC Investments provides upfront cash in exchange for a 10% minority stake in Big Ten Enterprises (the new commercial subsidiary). • There is no repayment obligation—UC is repaid through a proportional share of future revenue distributions over 20 years (with an exit after 15). • Schools and the league do not owe anything back if revenues fall short; the risk sits with the investor. • Unlike traditional debt (e.g., bonds, payday, or bank loans), this carries no interest, no fixed payments, and no collateral. Calling this deal a “private investment” is misleading and fuels more confusion with actual private equity deals (like those the SEC/Big 12 are exploring). Long story short, there’s a lot of people talking about this deal, with not a lot of people who know what they are talking about.
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@beta_rank_fb And I agree for the most part. I think the details of the exit terms are important. My guess is a portion is restructured as explicit debt for the final 5 years (or extended) after some conference repurchase ideally.
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@davebaker And I think for accounting purposes that is what is important for the athletic departments. I just don't care much about the accounting framing. You'll pay to get this structure instead of debt so for me it's just debt you paid to get a different structure for.
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@beta_rank_fb I'm familiar with Sukuk bonds (typically repurchased at face by borrower) but "baked in interest" is true of any investment. Also, a PE LP investment has a stated term of up to 15yrs but the underlying risk isn't debt.
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@davebaker All the interest in the principal is baked into the terms of the repayment rather than some dynamic calc.
And if the risk is transferred then you better believe you paid to get it transferred.
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@beta_rank_fb I'll quibble or at least clarify because I haven't seen the deal. While investment structure is a spectrum, if there is no explicit guarantee of principal, no dividends in arrears, not sure why you're calling that debt. The use of proceeds is irrelevant. Has anyone seen the deal?
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The bare bones of the deals are the same. If you don't see what you are looking for in one part of the deal then you can bet they are hiding in another part.
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More from Fisch on his name being attached to "lists" and people who think him and his family don't want to be in Seattle:
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@beta_rank_fb In my own viewing habits I watch my team and spend the rest of the time bouncing between good/close games like a college RedZone unless there is only 1 thing on. I thought everybody did that.
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@davebaker I'd expect them to be ahead. They have a deeper conference to choose from and better national time slots that they emphasize, but that gap is too big to be explained by that.
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I'd bet decent money that the 2023 numbers are not the panel only data that Nielsen used before, but the Big Data which was first introduced that year.
Stewart Mandel@slmandel
Nielsen changed how it calculates ratings this year which is inflating some #s, but CFB viewership exploded beginning in 2023: Games with 5 million-plus viewers through Week 8: 2019: 14 2021: 13 2022: 10 2023: 20 2024: 19 2025: 27
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@beta_rank_fb Do you have any insight into the massive viewership delta between ABC and CBS/FOX? It just seems too big.
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Be very skeptical of step changes in numbers that lack fairly obvious explanations.
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@PDawg206 The margins here are so small. It could be worth as much as half a game in this metric
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More than a fair line of rebuttal to the relative ease of Washington's schedule this year (by SEC/B10 standards).
This closes the gap some.
Big CFB Energy@BigCfbEnergy
This is simply fake news. Washington plays FIVE teams coming off of bye weeks. This is an insane statistic, and it by itself makes their schedule one of the toughest in the nation. Three of those teams they play coming off of bye weeks are Ohio State, Michigan, and Illinois 🤯.
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@ChristianCaple Do you have a guess as to what it means if they win/lose this week? 12:30 if loss 4ish if win?
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Washington-Illinois on Oct. 25 is being held for a six-day selection. UW has been informed it will kick at either 12:30, 4 or 4:30 p.m. PT.
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@HuskyFanPodBDTW Depth/talent/conditioning was bad but snaps for Bandes (450) and Valdez (558) weren't unusual. Valdez played almost the same snaps per game as Ty Hamilton, Zane Durant, Jay Toia, Aaron Graves and Derrick Harmon each of whom played for a strong B1G defense.
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6) Last year Valdez & Bandes played too many snaps & lack of depth wore down DL. Recall how run D collapsed in 3rd quarters vs. Iowa & Indiana. If we had DL depth, those games go to 4th q.
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4) Voi Tunuufi played a ton of snaps out of necessity, not fit. He was more effective on 22 & 23 teams bc DL & edge had the pieces for him to thrive. Sagapolu, Davis & Lynch played some snaps as depth guys but will be better this year.
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