Derek Domino
936 posts

Derek Domino
@does_derek
Once a hurler on the ditch , now a hurler.
Ireland Beigetreten Nisan 2019
805 Folgt7.2K Follower

I don’t think that academics should do ‘hot takes’ on matters of the day. Their opinions are rarely better informed than anyone else’s and cloaking them in scholarly garb cheapens the principle of objectivity. With respect to what is occurring in Britain today, in my opinion a fundamental error right now is to let the churn of the daily ‘news’ cycle drive your analysis.
The legacy media, the government, and the police have all forfeited any claim to credibility; they lie routinely, by omission and commission, and they are actively shaping the narrative to protect a failing political order. Strong-arming victims’ families, suppressing footage, and spinning every incident as isolated ‘far-right thuggery’ or random criminality is not journalism or policing, let alone governing—it is damage limitation for a system that has lost control of the streets and the story.
Instead, fix your gaze on the structural factors. Demography, geography, economics, and the hollowing-out of institutional legitimacy matter far more than whatever grainy mobile-phone clip is being waved at us this week.
Britain has imported, at scale and with minimal integration, populations whose cultural distance from the native majority is large and, in important respects, growing rather than shrinking. Parallel societies, concentrated in particular towns and cities, now possess the critical mass to sustain sustained low-level conflict and, when conditions align, more organised violence.
The state’s monopoly on force is visibly fraying; its willingness to use what remains of that monopoly is selective and therefore delegitimising. Trust in the police, courts, and political class is in the basement and still falling. Economic stagnation and housing pressure sharpen every grievance. These are not transient conditions; they are the terrain on which coming events will play out.
On the Belfast attacks specifically: the operators are clearly more security-conscious than has been the case with the migrant hotel and other protests over the last couple of years—masked, disciplined about visuals, limiting the evidential trail. Some attribute this to institutional memory of the Troubles. That may be part of it.
But I suspect the more immediate and probable vector is simple tactical diffusion from the modern Left and anarchist playbook. Black Bloc methods, the utility of anonymity, the selective application of violence, the media choreography—these have been field-tested and refined for years in Europe and North America.
The manuals are not secret and the examples are legion: Marighella’s Minimanual of the Urban Guerrilla, the writings of the Red Army Faction, Alinsky’s organising principles stripped of the moralising, the operational literature of the Global Justice movement and Antifa networks.
Remove the Marxist dialectical claptrap and you are left with cold, competent observations about how small, determined groups can punch above their weight against a larger but slower and more constrained opponent. Diffusion of those techniques was inevitable once the incentives aligned.
You don't need an aged ex-IRA uncle to tell you how to do these things. The internet and a library card will do it.
I am wary of firm day-to-day pronouncements precisely because reliable, on-the-ground reporting is so thin. I am not in Belfast, the journalistic desert in this country is real, nearly every dead-tree media and teevee pundit is a literal know nothing.
What I will say with higher confidence on account of my reading of such conflicts elsewhere in the world is that certain escalatory dynamics are now highly probable:
Police over-reaction that produces a martyr or martyrs, further radicalising elements on all sides.
Targeted assassination of a judge, prominent politician, or influential voice.
A spectacular, Christchurch-style mass killing when some individual or cell concludes that only dramatic, indiscriminate violence will break the equilibrium.
Stabbings and gang rapes will continue at their grim baseline; they are already normalised enough that they barely shift the political dial. The deeper pattern is polarisation, erosion of restraint, and the slow emergence of organised ethnic and ideological blocs willing to use force to defend or advance their interests.
All of that is in accordance with the rules of the game of identity politics, which were created by the *very same* people now most frantic about the perilous consequences of their own ideology.
The centre is not holding because it has spent years delegitimising itself and disarming its natural supporters.
Watch the structural trends—demographic momentum, institutional decay, the diffusion of effective small-group tactics, the collapse of shared reality—more than the latest headline. The news will keep lying. The underlying physics of the situation will not.
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METHODOLOGICAL REASONS WHY IRELAND'S OFFICIAL IMMIGRATION STATISTICS ARE STRUCTURALLY INACCCURATE
-5 Factors which indicate its flaws
A. Lack of Population Register
-Ireland is the only major EU country without a population register — most EU states use administrative registers (population, foreigners, health, tax); Ireland uses a household survey (LFS)
- LFS-based estimation is inherently less accurate than register-based methods and systematically produces lower figures
B. Undocumented/Irregular Migrants
- Visa overstayers and undocumented residents are entirely invisible to the methodology — no official estimate has ever been attempted by the Department of Justice
- The only stock estimates come from NGO residual methods (MRCI: 15,000–26,000), which are themselves derived from UK research coefficients, not Irish data
- The 2022 regularisation scheme (4,710 granted status) provides only a hard floor — excludes those too recent, ineligible, fearful, or unaware
C. Foreign Students
- Sub-12-month residents (language school students, short-term courses) are excluded by definition. Some may overstay visa or change visa status to long term when already in country
- Education datasets were only incorporated into the experimental administrative methodology recently and with lag
D. Ukrainian/Temporary Protection
- Ukrainian Temporary Protection beneficiaries were partially and inconsistently incorporated across years
- ~84,100 Ukrainians estimated still present by early 2026, with 121,048 PPSNs issued — only partially captured in flow figures
E. Eurostat Divergence
- Eurostat's DEMOBAL (residual) net migration figure is substantially higher than the CSO figure — the gap likely partially represents the true undercount (although as illegal migrants still not included, along with some other groups, these statistics are also likely an undercount)
- The CSO submits its own survey data to Eurostat's POPSTAT flows, so Eurostat flow data does not independently correct the problem
- Eurostat POPSTAT data lags 12–18 months, making recent years unavailable

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@EoinLenihan Excellent work there Eoin ! Give them absolutely NO benefit of the doubt. We all know by now how the game is played. Let's see how this pans out in the morning. Should be interesting.
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I was contacted by Irish Times journalist Conor Gallagher for a comment on an article he is writing about Remigration. In the interests of transparency, I am publishing his email and my response here for people to compare with the article tomorrow. I think it is a useful way of showing how the (news) sausage is made in Ireland. 🧵
1. Conor Gallagher's email - sent 2 hours before the stated deadline for a comment. His email address blocked out for privacy.

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@NickBuckleyMBE Yes Nick , this is where we are at now in ' Modern ' Ireland ! The revolution was all for nothing...
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Irish man in Dublin performs voodoo on a shop because they employed an Irish man who restrained a different Irish man who was shoplifting and then died. The Irish are a complicated people. @does_derek
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