E

Beautiful view of the Kierland Golf Club in Scottsdale, Arizona - the flag looks majestic!🇺🇸

So… now what is our current system bias pivot ?

The last 10-days have been unlike any 10-day period in the market since 1950. First, the S&P 500 is up 9.8% in 10-days, which is in the 99.7th percentile of all 10 day returns.

Walking a golf course is more enjoyable than riding in a cart. Agree or disagree?

I try not to get ahead of myself, trouble without seeing targets 1 at a time . 7030.25, 7031.25 NRO by tomorrow.

I just went max bearish equities. However plenty of bull cases exist. The six big things that can make me wrong 1) Collapse of long term oil prices back to the low's 2) The passage of a highly stimulative fiscal package or reconcilliation 3) Manipulation of the Treasury Issuance such that they issue less duration and more bills, and Fed Balance sheet manipulation - These things are really bad for USD 4) AI ROI for all spenders on picks and shovels surprises on the upside vs already lofty earnings expectations AND margin doesnt come from firing workers. 5) Fed cuts short rates more than expected 6) Investors, companies, and banks lever up more than expected to invest and consume (Animal spirits accelerate and persist.) Which absorbs the massive overhang of issuance of government bonds, corporate bonds, IPO's etc which elevated growth expectations depend without a decline in prices, rise in yields.