Ben

When the CEO of Verizon predicts AI & robotics could lead to 20%-30% unemployment within the next few years, we may want to take notice. AI is the most transformative technology in human history. We’re not prepared for it economically or socially. That must change. NOW.

Reflecting on $OUST … Most people think about lidar through drones or autonomous vehicles. The real volume is likely to show up somewhere less flashy: Warehouses and factory automation are already deploying autonomous systems at scale because the environments are controlled and the ROI is immediate. Sidewalk delivery robots are next in line—still early, but moving from pilots to repeatable deployments in dense urban areas. Then there’s smart infrastructure: intersections, ports, and cities using perception systems for traffic flow and safety. Trucking and highway autonomy is a longer-cycle build, but potentially larger per unit economics once it scales

Have you actually run the numbers on $OUST? If so, it's hard to be bearish below $30. The estimated TAM by 2030 is $70B so Ouster analysts forecasting for 1.3% penetration by 2030. That's a very conservative assumption...but one we can base our estimates on for a more base case. $900M in revenue by 2030 means 40% CAGR in revenue for the next 5 years. A very good assumption considering management forecast 30-50% annual revenue growth for the foreseeable future. $900M in revenue at 7x sales gives (also conservative given a 40% CAGR), gives you a $6.3B market cap. It's $1.6B today.

How geopolitics and markets are different.

Anduril revealed an AI-powered kamikaze drone that fits in a backpack, weighs 15 pounds, and finishes the strike at will. pretty fucking sick.