luminous
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Five days ago the United States lost a $220 million drone over the Strait of Hormuz. And nobody told you.
On February 22, an MQ-4C Triton, registration 169660, transmitted emergency code 7700 at 32,900 feet over the strait and vanished from Flightradar24. Gone. No wreckage announcement. No CENTCOM statement. No Pentagon briefing. The most advanced maritime surveillance drone in the American arsenal disappeared over the most contested waterway on earth during the largest military buildup since 2003, and the silence is deafening.
This is the same location, the exact same coordinates over the strait, where Iran shot down an RQ-4A Global Hawk in June 2019 using a Khordad-3 surface-to-air missile. That incident nearly triggered a war. Trump approved strikes, then recalled them with planes already in the air. Seven years later, another high-altitude surveillance drone vanishes in the same spot, and the Pentagon says nothing.
Defence Security Asia and Defence-UA report Iranian electronic warfare is suspected. Not a missile. Electronic warfare. If confirmed, this means Iran did not destroy the Triton. Iran hijacked it. Seized its control link, overwhelmed its GPS navigation, and either crashed it into the Gulf or worse, landed it intact the way Iran captured the RQ-170 Sentinel in 2011 by spoofing its GPS and guiding it down like a lost bird.
Now connect this to what China has been delivering.
X accounts with intelligence community sourcing report China has transferred advanced electronic warfare systems to Iran capable of jamming carrier-based F-35s. EADaily reports the US “blames Russia and China” for the loss. If Iranian EW systems, built with Chinese technology, can seize control of an MQ-4C Triton flying at 33,000 feet, those same systems can disrupt the communications and targeting links that the entire strike architecture depends on.
The F-22s suppress radar. The B-2s carry bunker busters. The carriers launch strike packages. All of it relies on data links, GPS targeting, and command signals traveling through electromagnetic spectrum that Iran, with Chinese hardware, just demonstrated it can dominate over the strait.
You do not spend $67 billion on stealth and then lose your surveillance drone to electronic warfare five days before a potential strike. That is not a setback. That is a capability demonstration by the other side, proving they can blind you over the waterway you need to control.
The Pentagon’s silence is the loudest signal. When you lose a $220 million asset to a technical malfunction, you say so immediately because the alternative narrative is worse. When you say nothing for five days, it is because confirming what happened reveals a vulnerability you cannot afford to acknowledge while 500 aircraft and two carriers sail into the same electromagnetic environment.
Iran just showed you it can turn the lights off over Hormuz. And Washington is pretending nobody noticed. open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…
Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡@shanaka86
The US just handed Iran a document that is not a negotiation. It is a capitulation order. The Wall Street Journal obtained the American demands presented in Geneva today. Destroy Fordow. Destroy Natanz. Destroy Isfahan. Hand over every gram of enriched uranium to the United States. Zero enrichment permanently, no sunset clauses, no expiration dates. Behave for the rest of your lives. In exchange, minimal sanctions relief upfront with more only if you comply with everything forever. Iran’s counterproposal, approved personally by Khamenei, arrived showing almost no change from the previous round. A 3-to-5 year enrichment suspension. Increased IAEA oversight. Willingness to dilute stockpiles. But zero flexibility on the one demand Washington says is non-negotiable: permanent zero enrichment on Iranian soil. The gap between these two positions is not a negotiation gap. It is the distance between sovereignty and surrender. And no government in the history of nuclear diplomacy has voluntarily dismantled its own program, surrendered its own fissile material to its adversary, and accepted permanent restrictions with no expiration while that adversary had 500 aircraft parked on its doorstep. The FDD’s Andrea Stricker called it a “suicide mission.” She is right, but not the way she means it. These demands are designed to be rejected. A proposal that requires a sovereign nation to physically destroy three of its own facilities and hand its enriched uranium to the country threatening to bomb it is not diplomacy. It is the paperwork you file before the paperwork becomes irrelevant. Barak Ravid confirmed today’s talks were both indirect and direct, with a pause for consultations. That pause is the tell. When both sides need to consult after the first session, it means the positions presented were further apart than either side expected to encounter. Araghchi’s “good outlook” from yesterday has already collided with the reality of what Washington put on the table. Now hold this against what is happening outside the room. The demands say destroy Fordow. The F-22s at Ovda exist to destroy Fordow. The demands say dismantle Natanz. The B-2s at Whiteman carry the GBU-57s that reach Natanz. The demands say eliminate Isfahan. The Tomahawks on two carrier strike groups are programmed for Isfahan. Every demand in the document has a military equivalent already in theater. The negotiating position is a target list with diplomatic formatting. Iran is being asked to do voluntarily what the United States is prepared to do by force. The document is not an alternative to the strike. The document is the strike translated into legalese, presented one last time before the translation becomes unnecessary. Geneva is not where this gets resolved. Geneva is where the historical record gets established. The United States offered terms. Iran rejected the core demand. The diplomatic predicate for military action was constructed in a hotel conference room while 500 aircraft waited outside. The curtain went up today in Geneva. But the show was never in the building. The show is on the tarmacs at Ovda, on the flight decks of the Ford and Lincoln, in the bomb bays of B-2s sitting in Missouri, and on the coral runway at Diego Garcia where the refueling corridor begins. Geneva is the intermission. The next act does not require a negotiating table. open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…
English
من جنگ نمیخوام.
چون هنوز یادمه شبی که اسرائیل زد چطور مدام گوشی رو چک میکردم که ببینم عزیزانم زندهاند یا نه.
چون یادمه اضطراب فروریختنِ هر لحظه سقف بالای سرت چهطور آدم رو مستاصل میکنه.
حالا تصور کن جنگی در ابعاد بزرگتر با بمبهای آمریکایی.
جنگ شاید برای بعضیها امید آزادی یا تماشای یک صحنه از صفحه تلویزیون باشه اما برای ما ترس واقعیِ از دست دادنه.
جنگ برای ما یعنی ممکنه همین زندگی معمولیات، همین چای صبح، همین پیامِ ساده «رسیدی؟»، آخرین بار باشه.
من آزادی میخوام اما نه آزادیای که از دل آوار و سوگ بگذره.
فارسی
@Pianisimo_m منم همین فکرو میکنم
سطح ایکیو اینا رو دید کلا ناامید شد خودشم گیج شده
فارسی
@dysuniqueia @fallingbacktoK بابا
ترامپ یه بار یه مهلت ۱ ماهه به اینا داد
بعد کردش ۱۵ روز
بعد کردش ۱۰ روز
الان اون مهلت ۱۰ روزه تموم شده
فارسی
@dysuniqueia @fallingbacktoK تقصیر دوستمون نیست ترامپ روانیه ایشون ماملا درست نوشته
فارسی
@dysuniqueia صد برابر بد ترش رو داریم زندگی میکنیم متاسفانه
هر چقدر بار بخونی فرقی نداره🥲
فارسی
تنها کارخانه تولید فیبرنوری روسیه چندی قبل درحمله پهپادی تخریب و روسیه برای فیبرنوری بطورکامل متکی به همپیمان استراتژیکش چین شد.
چین هم نامردی نکرد و شرکتهای چینی قیمت فروش فیبرنوری به روسیه را از ابتدای سال جدید، 2.5 تا 4 برابر افزایش دادند!
منبع: Vedomosti
فارسی
@itsdanskin قوای سرکوب رو میزنه یعنی؟
مگه هدف زنجیره فرماندهی از بالا ترین تا میان رده ها نیستن تا نظام حاکم کامل فلج شه؟
باز لانچر ها منطقی تره ولی بازم ۷۲ ساعت واقعا تایم زیادی هست
فارسی
@fallingbacktoK ۱- پراکندگی قوای سرکوب
۲- پراکندگی قوای پرتاب موشک زمین به زمین. چیزی که سالها روش سرمایهگذاری کردند. برای همین روز.
۳- اسلام. چیزی که توش جان انسانها ارزشی نداره. ولی برای طرف مقابل حتی یک جان خیلی مهمه.
فارسی
من یه سوال دارم
ایران چی داره که ۷۲ ساعت بمباران نیاز باشه برای نابودیش؟
شهریار@ShahryarShefigh
📝برآورد قبل از جنگ ترامپ ساعتی پیش از برد کوپر فرمانده سنتکام خواسته آخرین گزینه های درگیری و تهاجم نیروهای تحت امرش رو ارائه بده. تا آغاز دستور جنگ زمان بسیار کوتاهی مونده و البته که درگیری نظامی قطعیه. برآورد آمریکایی ها ۷۲ ساعت بمباران بی وقفه تا به زانو درآوردن جا و پذیرش شرایط کامل پیشنهادیه! در حالی که جا به طولانی تر شدن و فرسایشی تر شدن جنگ و گرفتن امتیاز از آمریکا فکر میکنه. اینکه دوطرف به تعین تکلیف خواسته هاشون در میدان جنگ فکر میکنند، این موضوع (درگیری نظامی) رو قطعی تر میکنه. 🖊️جنگ قطعیه و زیر یک هفته رخ خواهد داد.
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@SenatorBaldwin You're the stupid one,huh?
Send someone who can understand the facts.
English
@wise0watermelon @grok تحولات درگیری طالبان و پاکستان رو میگی بهم؟
فارسی
عاشق پاکستانیام. حوصله موصله دعوا نداشتن همون اولش زارت رئیس طالبانو زدن که زودتر برگردن سر کار اصلیشون: ساخت ریلزای تولید تانک از ضایعات آشپزخونه
فارسی
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من خیلی وقته دارم میگم
دیگه واقعا نمیدونم دست تنها چقدر باید فریاد بزنم
توییتر فارسی داره میره سمت مسخره کردن و میم و پروموت کردن حرفای سه فاسد
برگردید به پتیشن امضا کردن
به ایمیل زدن
به هشتگ ترند کردن
به کمپین های مفید
به صدای اعدامی ها و زندانیان بودن
#IranMassacre
#KingRezaPahlavi
Ebi Zandi@ebzandi
حس میکنم انرژی و جهتی که هفته های گذشته داشتیم برای ایمیل زدن و متن خارجی نوشتن و سروصدا کردن برای خارجیها افتادیم و تمام اینا بخاطر حواشی کسشری هست که درست کردن برامون، دوباره باید بیفتیم رو ترامپ و پارلمان اروپا و احزاب رقیب جاکم بریتانیا
فارسی
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