fertweet

@BLS_gov In what world did health insurance premiums collapse 30% in the last 12 months? Gasoline 20%? Oh don't give me the "methodology changes" BS. But yeh, keep pumping out the lies @JoeBiden @SECGov @CNBC .....Oh and I love the "shelter up" line every month, anything else up? LOL

CPI for all items rises 0.2% in July; shelter up bls.gov/news.release/c… #CPI #BLSdata

Cleveland Fed forecasts cpi to reaccelerate near 4.1% in August. If that's anywhere near accurate the debate won't be whether the fed hikes another 25bp, it'll be whether they go 50bp in both Sep and Nov. $spy

$spy gap up bounce after 4 red days is classic. Looks on track for 430 soon

@carlquintanilla At 60x forward 2024 earnings they better have significant revisions higher, that's already baked in. 👀

"AWS growth has bottomed .. North American Retail margins are inflecting .. a recipe for significant earnings revisions in 2024/2025 that are unmatched in scale by anything in large-cap tech. $AMZN stock has legs even though it’s up +66% YTD. Don’t overthink it." Bernstein desk

Everyone is as bulled up as you can possibly get. Now we can finally have the recession $vix through 40 $spy

$aapl has gone straight up all year, dragging $spy with it, all for a 1% y/y decline in revenue and flat earnings. Multiple expansion has no limits? When the music stops look out below.

@carlquintanilla @axios So nowhere to go but down? 👀

“.. The Citigroup Economic Surprise Index — a widely followed indicator that provides a quick-and-dirty snapshot of how the economy is faring against expectations — just hit its highest level in the last two years.” @axios #story0" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">axios.com/newsletters/ax…

@carlquintanilla That's contrarian bearish

CREDIT SUISSE: “.. We are raising our 2023 S&P 500 price target to 4700, 3.9% above current levels with modest upside from multiple expansion. We are also raising our 2023-24 EPS estimates to $220 and $237 from $215 and $220.” [Golub] $SPX

@carlquintanilla @business A 700B global fund mgr with deep insights into all aspects of corporate health calling for recession while wall st fully prices soft/no landing? $vix through 40 $spy 320

JPMORGAN'S MICHELE: "Based on all the stress we’re seeing in the system, we’re pretty confident we’re going to see that sharp rise in unemployment. .. It’s going to feel like a soft landing until you actually hit recession.” @business $JPM bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

@TDANetwork @LizAnnSonders If pain trade is on the upside then what would you call $spy 320 and $vix through 40?

🎙️ “The pain trade is on the upside, notwithstanding somewhat frothy sentiment conditions, and that’s been a powerful force this year.” As we continue to digest inflation data, earnings, and language from the Fed, @LizAnnSonders assesses the main driving factor for markets:

The melt up in stocks and relentless desire to pay whatever price no matter what is adding fuel to the fire that is just ahead, but the market can't yet see. $spy

@carlquintanilla "Mild recession" is the consensus by everyone that calls for recession. Contrarian moderate/severe recession? Hmm

2. “.. we expect goods demand .. to weaken given our outlook for a mild recession in 1H next year. This should lead to modest deflation in core goods ex used cars next year which will help drive core inflation below 3% y/y in 2Q 2024.” B of A #CPI

B of A: “We think the June decline in used car prices is the beginning of a string of negative prints that should put downward pressure on core inflation. .. we expect these declines to contribute to a string of softer inflation prints in 3Q.” #CPI

Fed not done till labor market "done". Pain trade $spy 320 with $vix through 40. Recession Q3/Q4 this year.

@carlquintanilla Cool story. Fed hiking 25bp in 2 weeks.

Waited 2 hours for LA Knight and get nothing? Is this a joke @WWE @TripleH

@TradingThomas3 Pain trade is $spy 320 in Q3 with a $vix through 40. I bet that would be quite painful to the most people.

Bank of America says pain trade is for more up in 2H of 2023 👀

Revenge rally is played out. Bears await "the event" that will catalyze the final leg lower in this bear market to take out the October lows and put in the true low for this bear market. Looks imminent. $spy

All week @ScottWapnerCNBC was dunking on Mike Wilson and every bear he could find. But this bear market remains incomplete. Spiking the football before the game is over won't end well. $spy 300-340 prints with $vix through 40

@carlquintanilla in response @cnbc rushing to find Tom Lee for multiple pump segments this week

JPMORGAN: “Unlike the #CPI, there has been no meaningful deceleration in the non-shelter core services #PCE measure. While we still think the Fed will pause at its June meeting to assess, risks remain skewed for further tightening.” #FOMC

@carlquintanilla @fundstrat Said another way, "without what most people spend money on, inflation was zero, weeeee stonks only go up, weeee!"

“.. used cars literally drove the April inflation report. Now it is tanking again, so this suggests May #CPI could have downside.” Without used cars and shelter, April CPI “was a mere .. 1% annualized. Yup.” - @fundstrat