Graphium AI

First-mover advantage compounds hardest in brand-new asset classes. AI compute is one being born right now. Early ≠ reckless. Early = informed and positioned. 🧭

GPU revenue: $100B (2024) - $215B (2030), per Yole. The arms dealer outlasts every war. In the AI arms race, the GPU is the arms dealer. 🪖

New memory fabs won't reach volume until 2027 🏭 — packaging capacity is the choke point 🔧 The shortage has a schedule, and it's long 📅 Long shortages reward owners ⏳

Second-order investing 101: Don't buy the product, buy what the product can't run without. Every AI app can't run without compute. Own the input. 🔌

AI at GPT-3.5 quality got 280x cheaper in under 2 years (Stanford). Collapsing cost = exploding usage = more compute. Counterintuitive, but it's the core engine. ⚙️

Custom AI chips (ASICs): ~$0 revenue in 2022 - $84.5B by 2030 (Omdia). Demand is so vast that GPUs AND ASICs both win. Bet the category, not one chip. 🧩

AI racks are headed toward ~1,000 kW each by 2029. The unit of compute is becoming an industrial power load. This is heavy infrastructure now - invest like it. 🏗️

The best edge in a young market is its inefficiency. AI compute is fragmented, mispriced, underutilized. Mature markets are efficient. Young ones pay early movers. 🎯

Memory got diverted to AI so hard that 2026 smartphone shipments are set to fall ~13% and PCs ~11%. AI is literally outbidding your phone for chips. Follow the bid. 📱

OpenAI's 2024 inference bill (~$2.3B) was ~15x the cost to train GPT-4 (~$150M). Running AI dwarfs building it. The recurring cost is the recurring opportunity. 💸

The shovel-seller never has to guess which miner strikes gold. In AI, the GPU is the shovel. Stop predicting the winning app - own what they all must buy. ⛏️

AWS cut H100 rates 44% in June 2025 ($7-$3.90/hr) - and demand still outran supply. Cheaper compute doesn't kill the market; it grows it. Volume eats price. 📉

Analysts think inference will outpace training demand by ~118x. Training is a sprint. Inference is the marathon that pays. Bet on the marathon. 🏃

Memory prices jumped 246% YoY in 2025 and suppliers are sold out through 2026. 💾 When the input is this scarce, pricing power flows to whoever holds capacity.

Morgan Stanley pegs the humanoid market at $5T by 2050, 1B+ units. Every unit is a node screaming for AI compute. The body is the story; the brain is the trade. #compute #ai #invest

AI agents basically never clock out. They just keep running, mostly on their own, hammering inference calls 24/7. So every agent out there is one more permanent customer for compute. Worth owning the thing it all runs on. 🤖

NVIDIA took 93% of server GPU revenue in 2024. That's not a brand win - it's a supply shortage with a price tag. Structural scarcity is the cleanest long-term thesis there is. 🔥