Glenn Schepens

491 posts

Glenn Schepens

Glenn Schepens

@gschepen

Research Economist @ecb. Personal opinions only. RT≠endorsement.

Frankfurt am Main, Germany Beigetreten Şubat 2009
687 Folgt346 Follower
Glenn Schepens retweetet
Joseph Steinberg
Joseph Steinberg@jbsteinberg·
I spend way too much time on social media debunking "economic slop" promulgated by lawyers pretending to be economists, so I built Show Me the Model: a tool that uses AI to check whether the economic reasoning in an essay actually holds up. showmethemodel.io Give it a URL or paste some plain text, and the tool flags hidden assumptions, internal inconsistencies, and other problem areas, and tells you how a real economist would think through the issue. Right now, it has 4 "personas:" macro, trade, IO/price theory, and labor. The tool first figures out which persona is right for the job, and then uses a parallelized prompt scaffold specific to that persona to process the source text. Here are some example outputs based on some essays that triggered me hard: Citrini Research's viral essay on how AI could trigger a self-reinforcing financial crisis rivaling the GFC: showmethemodel.io/#/results/2ez3… American Compass on the harms of trade deficits: showmethemodel.io/#/results/kOvt… @oren_cass on why Built-to-Rent should be banned: showmethemodel.io/#/results/OXjr… American Compass on the "China Shock:" showmethemodel.io/#/results/dJM7… @michaelxpettis on why China's trade surplus reduces global output: showmethemodel.io/#/results/C8OT… Try it yourself at showmethemodel.io. You'll need to bring your own API key (OpenAI or Anthropic), and a typical analysis costs $0.50–$1.50. It's super preliminary and will probably break on you. I'd love feedback about both the functionality as well as the quality of the output.
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Claes Bäckman
Claes Bäckman@ClaesBackman·
I just published a free Claude Skill that generates feedback on your own academic papers. Link in the comments below.
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Andy Hall
Andy Hall@ahall_research·
A few people have raised this question. The point isn't about whether we "need" 1,000 papers or not. The point is that that's what is possible now, and we need to adjust to that reality and start redesigning systems to make sure we promote knowledge production. If we do nothing and leave the journal system as is, then the incentive will be for people to produce thousands of not very good papers, probably. We should aim to do better.
emily l@laskin

Ok so like….i say this as someone who used to be an academic and believes, still, in the value of academic research and writing: why do we need 1,000 academic papers produced at record speed?

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Jean-Noël Barrot
Jean-Noël Barrot@jnbarrot·
La Commission européenne n'aurait jamais dû assister à la réunion du "Board of Peace" à Washington aujourd'hui, car elle n'en avait pas reçu le mandat du Conseil. Au-delà des questions politiques légitimes soulevées par le "Board of Peace", la Commission doit respecter scrupuleusement le droit et l'équilibre institutionnel européens en toute circonstance.
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Andreas Tirez
Andreas Tirez@andreastirez·
Zon en wind is goedkoper dan kerncentrales openhouden, zegt @KoenSchoors - wind onshore beperkt door vergunningen - zon levert "niets" in winter - wind offshore 2-3x duurder dan kerncentrales openhouden Hier mijn cijfers: linkedin.com/posts/andreas-… Waar jouw cijfers, professor?
De Afspraak@deafspraaktv

Vanavond in #deafspraakopvrijdag: @MDiependaele, @cauwelaert en @KoenSchoors over de industrie in Vlaanderen en het functioneren van de Vlaamse regering. Om 20u35 op VRT Canvas.

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Paul Novosad
Paul Novosad@paulnovosad·
I hear people say "I have *so much* latent knowledge about working with data, knowledge that can only be won by getting your hands dirty, writing the code, bashing away for years, becoming an expert." I feel this in my bones too, but I think it's wrong. Young people are just not going to learn Python, R, Julia, not when you can just say "do the thing" and get the result that would have taken hours of coding, debugging (and yes, learning). We have to get used to a world with vibe-data-coding in addition to vibe-coding. People will make embarrassing mistakes for a while and get all kinds of things wrong, but then we'll learn how to test and evaluate in this new universe. It feels more noble to get there the way we did (dammit everything was better in our generation!), but I don't think anyone is taking that path again.
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Glenn Schepens
Glenn Schepens@gschepen·
The CfP for the IBEFA Annual Meeting 2027 is out! 📢 We're looking for high-quality research on financial intermediation and related topics. Join us in DC! 🗓️ Jan 3–5, 2027 📍 Washington, DC ⏰Submission deadline: March 31, 2026 Paper submissions: conftool.pro/ibefa-assa2027
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Kevin A. Bryan
Kevin A. Bryan@Afinetheorem·
This realization *exactly* captures main reason AI adoption (and any technology) initially has low productivity gains. Doing things you already do, more efficiently, only gets so far. Doing new things now worth doing, esp. w/ other people, orgs, complements gets you a ton! 1/2
Indra@IndraVahan

i’ve made a tragic discovery using clawdbot. there simply aren’t that many tasks in my personal life that are worth automating

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Garry Kasparov
Garry Kasparov@Kasparov63·
Trying to predict the outrages of autocrats is hopeless because their superpower is to generate constant shocks to dominate the environment. But what’s happening in Minnesota is method, not madness. Trump wants violence, to radicalize & divide, to create pretext for crackdowns.
Fred Wellman@FPWellman

They tried to cover it up immediately and the Minneapolis police chief refused. Witnesses have been taken to police headquarters and all available off duty police have been called to work. ICE cannot be trusted to tell the truth. Congress must act now. The Courts must stop the stupid foot dragging. Enough is enough.

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Joe Weisenthal
Joe Weisenthal@TheStalwart·
THE AI PRODUCTIVITY POTENTIAL HAS NEVER BEEN MORE OBVIOUS In today's Odd Lots newsletter, I wrote Part I of my takeaways from a weekend playing with Claude Code and building @Havelock_AI Would love it if you gave it a read
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Ive Marx
Ive Marx@IveMarx·
Dit lijkt me nu toch niet te volstaan. Er worden erg zware sancties uitgesproken tegen studenten die ongeoorloofd AI gebruiken. Als dit allemaal klopt dan kan je toch onmogelijk als rector gewoon op je stoel blijven zitten. Je hebt totaal geen gezag meer. standaard.be/opinies/de-woo…
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Andy Hall
Andy Hall@ahall_research·
Here's proof that Claude Code can write an entire empirical polisci paper. To validate my claim that AI agents are coming for polisci "like a freight train", today I had Claude Code fully replicate and extend an old paper of mine estimating the effect of universal vote-by-mail on turnout and election outcome...essentially in one shot. After careful prompting, Claude Code: (1) Downloaded the old paper's repo and replicated the past results, translating our old Stata Code into Python (2) Crawled the web to get updated official election data and census data (3) Ran new analyses extending the results through 2024 (4) Created new tables and figures (5) Performed a lit review (6) Wrote a wholly new paper (7) Pushed the whole thing to a new github repo The whole thing took about an hour. This is an insane paradigm shift in how empirical work is done. It also validates the point that several people including @BrendanNyhan made yesterday---it's going to be especially easy to scale observational research with AI. Thanks to @alexolegimas, @arthur_spirling , and many others who gave me feedback. .
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Andy Hall@ahall_research

Claude Code and its ilk are coming for the study of politics like a freight train. A single academic is going to be able to write thousands of empirical papers (especially survey experiments or LLM experiments) per year. Claude Code can already essentially one-shot a full AJPS-style survey experiment paper (with access to Prolific API). We'll need to find new ways of organizing and disseminating political science research in the very near future for this deluge.

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Jay in Kyiv
Jay in Kyiv@JayinKyiv·
Holy shit.. US is sanctioning any German group that counters Russian disinformation.
Under Secretary of State Sarah B. Rogers@UnderSecPD

WE'VE SANCTIONED: Anna-Lena von Hodenberg, the leader and founder of HateAid, a German organization founded after the 2017 German federal elections to counter conservative groups. HateAid is an official “trusted flagger” (a censor) under the EU’s anti-speech Digital Services Act (DSA) and routinely demands access to propriety social media platform data to help it censor more. Hodenberg cited threat of “disinformation” from “right-wing extremists” online in upcoming U.S. and EU elections when circulating a petition for the DSA to become more strongly enforced to allow data access for “researchers".

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Entdecken

@oren_cass @michaelxpettis @ugent @KoenSchoors @DavidCriekemans @Havelock_AI @BrendanNyhan @alexolegimas