meow

on the road to playing being a 200NL crusher and Kalshi sharp. posting my weekly poker graph every Friday to keep myself accountable.

@The_Gildz @cryptocenzo1 @PokerGO @Andrew_Robl neither of those are shoving river. this isn’t your 1/2 home game where people see a flush and shove bro

@gtokitty @cryptocenzo1 @PokerGO @Andrew_Robl Why can’t he have J10h or 109h. Of course he can.

HOLY MOTHER OF GOD WHAT A HAND BETWEEN @ANDREW_ROBL AND JUSTIN GAVRI WE ARE NOT WORTHY Stream High Stakes Poker on PokerGO.com, live and on demand.

@The_Gildz @cryptocenzo1 @PokerGO @Andrew_Robl there’s no TXo gavri has besides TT (not playing this way) and he’s not shoving river w TXhh. have to keep in mind preflop ranges

@gtokitty @cryptocenzo1 @PokerGO @Andrew_Robl Also any 10x hearts is calling lol. Lots of hands he beats on river

@The_Gildz @cryptocenzo1 @PokerGO @Andrew_Robl none of these RFI from LJ or wherever he was except AKo and KQo. also not sure how often KQo calls flop

@cryptocenzo1 @PokerGO @Andrew_Robl AK, KQ, KJ, K10, QJ, J8 etc lol

@junglemandan whether or not taking such a bet when Draftkings is your counterparty is a different conversation

@junglemandan For all the people likening this to betting the nuts, I don’t think the two are analogous. In poker there’s an “agreement” to use your cards to take the highest EV decision. If I am betting with a friend and I know a UFC fighter is going to throw a match, that is unethical

Is it ethical to bet on something when you know the answer?

@kmcpoker @junglemandan if you were betting with a friend on the results of the Oscars and he knew all the answers before betting you wouldn’t feel cheated?

@junglemandan My official ruling is it's fair. In a simple friendly bet between two people it's usually both thinking they know. Gambling industry could complicate the solution or not. I rule it doesn't though.

i might be wrong, but National Parks will solve our data center crisis obviously i don't want to destroy them, but Arches National Park (for example) has all this space under the arches we could easily throw a few server racks there, without destroying the natural beauty i'd even argue it's more beautiful, due to shareholder value has anyone else thought of this, or should i patent it?

in before they raise rake too

@gptftw @_rainerds @mansourtarek_ it's not their fault you didn't read the rules dude

@_rainerds @mansourtarek_ I appreciate the response. Imagine you go play blackjack and you get a blackjack but they don’t pay because somewhere in the fine print on the felt says “must be suited”. That’s how everyone is feeling right now.

As an exchange, we resolve the market according to the rules, even when there is disagreement with the resolution. I understand many of you are frustrated about the Khamenei market, and I want to clear up a few things along with steps we have taken to improve: The market rules were not changed. The death carveout and settlement based on last-traded-price were part of the published market rules from the outset (see the screenshot from the rules, which can also be found in our official filing from 2025 on the CFTC website). The death carveout was also always shown on the market page (see market page below). Once the strikes on Iran started, we added the “Green Box” to further highlight the death carveout in the UI (this is not a rule change, just a highlight of the rules). We settled according to the rules. Traders were paid based on the last traded price. Some traders who held YES feel like they should have won (as in the market should have settled to YES). But the rules clearly stated that the market would not settle to YES in the event of death: traders expect us to settle the market based on the rules and we have to apply the rules consistently for both YES and NO holders; changing settlement because one side is unhappy would break trust in the exchange (imagine you held NO and you read the rules, but then we decided to settle contrary to the rules). Death carveouts are important; as a federally regulated prediction market, we are required and feel it is important not to enable direct profiting from war, assassination, terrorism, or other violent outcomes. No trader lost money on this market. While the rules were clear and we tried our best to highlight them, traders vocalized they were not prominent enough. We heard you, and we decided to reimburse out of pocket for all fees and all net losses from trading in the market: 1. If you sold for a net loss before settlement, we reimbursed you for that net loss and 2. if you didn’t recoup your position cost during settlement, we paid you the difference so you get your full position cost back. You can find reimbursements under "Your activity" in the app and website. No trader ended net-negative after our reimbursements. Kalshi did not profit on this market. We do not stand to benefit from one resolution or the other. We earn fees from facilitating trades. For this market, we reimbursed all fees back to users. We also reimbursed net losses users incurred on the market out of pocket, so no trader ended net negative. As a result, Kalshi incurred a substantial loss to make users whole. We will improve. We learned a lot from this market. We are updating how we present similar markets (e.g., those with a death carveout or where a death might be a likely scenario) so traders can see the exception more clearly before they trade. We will surface the exception in the title and at the top of the market page. We also recognize that the first iteration of the Green Box warning created confusion; we revised it and reimbursed net losses for the market. Going forward, we are implementing a tighter review process for UI highlights. The best part about Kalshi is you all and I'm sorry for the disappointment. We'll improve, thank you for bearing with us.

I just need to vent a little bit otherwise I feel like I'm going to completely lose what I like about myself... I'm up about a million lifetime in poker, but it's not that much over the course of 20+ years. I'm down $400k from the high point before the 2024 WSOP started. I've only had one complete losing year (last year), but I'm down $100k this year already and I feel like I'm losing my identity and a failure if I don't turn things around soon, especially if I'm not as open about it as I can be about the tough times. I've done pretty much everything in poker except win a major title so I've torched money in mixed games trying to get better and learn/play with the best in small field large buy-in events. This is where the overwhelming majority of the $400k downswing has come from, and it's really not that many buy-ins when I'm playing high stakes events, but I need to talk about it somewhere since there are no vlogs of these sessions. I can always just quit and go back to cash where wins are consistent and easier, but it's enjoyable for me to push myself and I don't want to give up just yet even though it would certainly be better for my mental well-being. I put an insane amount of pressure on myself to try to be the best dad, significant other, poker player, content creator, ambassador, etc. that I can be. It's tough to ever escape or take a break because I fear that if I turn off the machine, even for a short time, I might not be able to turn it on again. There aren't a ton of people who can relate to what I have going on - maybe just 2 or 3 partially and 1 of them WPT made what I consider to be a massive mistake by parting ways with, which leads to me feeling very isolated and just generally not having nearly as much fun as I used to in the poker world. I don't know how much time I have left in this space before I get too burnt out. Time with my family is what makes me the most happy and I don't get to be with them or be there for them quite as much as I would like. My health is deteriorating as well and I just can't keep up at the pace I've been at the last several years even though there are plenty of reasons to keep churning out videos as frequently as I can. I'm incredibly fortunate to be in the situation I'm in. I love being on the WPT team - I don't agree with all of the decisions, but typically they do a lot of cool things for poker and I'm in the position to be able to lose $10ks and not have it affect my life at all. I'm living the dream and my 15 year old self wouldn't believe that I actually made it in the poker industry - I'm on the same f***ing team as Ivey!! Most days I'm super grateful and appreciative. Some days I just want to burn everything I've built down because I feel like a fraud and don't feel like I deserve any of it. None of what I do is that hard or that important and if I started making vlogs in the current climate, I'd likely get lost in the shuffle and wouldn't be nearly as successful. I don't like where some things are headed. I hate YouTube shorts. I hate AI voiceovers. I hate that a lot of people are promoting the game in a way that I don't think is healthy for younger people to see because the approach is that they're content creators first trying to do the most exciting thing and not the most responsible thing. I'm contributing to that now, and it's easy for me to justify blasting off in certain spots to hopefully make an interesting video and achieve certain goals I had when I was a first fell in love with poker in the early 2000s (like winning a bracelet or WPT), but I guess this tweet is my attempt to try to make things slightly better. It actually hurts me to see top level players like Jeremy Ausmus, Seth Davies, and even Chidwick to some extent, make poker content on YouTube/Twitter/Instagram. Nearly all of the poker content, especially from these guys is objectively good for poker, but vlogs used to be something that most top guys shit all over and now we're seeing them with stands and cameras at the table because the major poker companies don't give the best players ambassador roles anymore. I 100% benefit from it - I'm like win the lottery and get struck by lightning on the same day lucky. I just miss how things were back in the heyday and I'd like to see more opportunities for the guys I look up to in the industry - the guys who have actually accomplished a lot on the felt. Also, I hate that Kalshi sponsors the Lodge livestream and I think some gum company does as well that just has nothing to do with poker. It feels weird and even there we've strayed from what made that place special, but I'm optimistic we're going to right the ship. I wish I was there more to help make that happen. One of the few things I'm proud of myself for recently is turning down the opportunity to promote the side gambling games that Gold offers, which would've made me a lot more money. If I didn't do that I would've felt like I've sold out completely. I have no issues promoting poker because I'm an example of someone who's been successful at it, whereas if people are betting/gambling in things they have no shot at winning in the long-run - I just can't be a part of it and don't want to promote it. Let's see what else... Andrew Neeme should be in the poker hall of fame for revolutionizing poker in two massive ways - meet up games and vlogging, which has inspired more poker players than almost everything in the last few decades. WSOP needs to move its Bahamas event to January and stop giving out so many online bracelets. I don't know how you guys don't dislike shameless promotions more. I know that I should get a therapist and I will likely regret tweeting this 🔥🔥🔥

no volume this week have been grinding kalshi :(

@ExpectValuePS @holdenc222 @HCLPokerShow @WAFoxen @Polymarket A4, 66, maybe 87s definitely can take this line. i do agree that 44, 55, 45s x/r flop high percentage of the time

@gtokitty @holdenc222 @HCLPokerShow @WAFoxen @Polymarket He very likely doesn't have those hands by the time we get to the river 3bet with this exact line.

🚨 INSANE RIVER BLUFF 🚨 @WAFoxen puts Francisco to the test for $212,000!! 💵 Brought to you by @Polymarket, the World’s Largest Prediction Market

@edwards19073 @holdenc222 @HCLPokerShow @WAFoxen @Polymarket he’s a live tourney pro i highly doubt he has significant timing tells. i do think that he blocks with his boats here to induce a raise but can’t tell you exactly how many sizes he has here on river

@gtokitty @holdenc222 @HCLPokerShow @WAFoxen @Polymarket He prob wouldn’t have taken so long to call pre w those pairs and suited stuff . So it’s like most likely the offsuit Ax two pairs , which prob don’t bet 3b and just bet river bigger . Hindsight 20/20 tho

@holdenc222 @HCLPokerShow @WAFoxen @Polymarket if he has A3o here he definitely has 44-66, 54s, A4s, 87s. also by “all AA too” villain has 1 combo

@HCLPokerShow @WAFoxen @Polymarket Someone help me understand why this is a "good bluff" as Charlie said. It's a 4-bet pot. The board is paired on turn. Less set combos. Foxen puts Vil on AK, but what is he reping? Only hand that makes sense is pocket 5's. 7-8 diamond? Vil has all AA too. Has nut adv. Bad bluff

@Evanzsolomon anyone who thinks that resolutions being different on kalshi and polymarket is a big deal is an idiot

Looks like Cardi B performance resolutions are as follows: Kalshi No Polymarket Yes Uproar incoming

graph for january. not enough volume to mean anything. going to lock in for february.

@GaetenD now you just need to add @zscdao to your bio

Shit. Wrong format: Be Frenchie. 🇫🇷 Find the interview where the individual predicts his own time. ⏱️ Bet on that time. 📉 Win $140k. 💰 That’s not just predicting — that’s informational arbitrage.

@GaetenD you missed your chance to plug Degenerates Play Poker :(

I was interviewed for an article yesterday: Him: Are you in any Discords? Me: Yes. One of the two biggest ones. Him: The one that calls everybody retards? Me: No, the other one.

@GaetenD why are we spilling alpha :(

I don't get how this account is still under 200 followers. DO YOU GUYS EVEN TRADE????

@GaetenD wish i had a bunch of followers to shill my positions to

@GaetenD the gaeten tweet effect

Am I dumb?