Hannah Slaughter

This adds weight to the case for taking LFS estimates with a big pinch of salt at the moment and using a wide range of datasets to understand what's happening in the labour market. Read the full spotlight for more: resolutionfoundation.org/publications/m…

The ONS is working to address both of these issues - and we aren’t able to offer definitive conclusions. But this chart shows that if we model the employment rate based on trends in admin data and population figures, the employment rate could be close to pre-pandemic highs.

Today’s @ONS labour market data shows that pay growth has slowed. We should, however, be cautious interpreting the latest employment figures - given that the official data is likely under-estimating the UK's real level of employment. Thread below from me and @charliejmccurdy 🧵

This weakening of pay growth is bad news for workers, but it will be good news for the Bank of England - as it reduces the risk of pay rises fuelling inflation in the future.

Looking at higher-frequency pay measures, annualised quarter-on-quarter nominal pay growth in the private sector has decreased to 7.2% in the 3 months to June 2024 (from 7.4% in the three months to May 2024).

🚨 New opportunity alert 🚨 We're looking for thoughtful and proactive researcher to join our team. See the details and apply by August 5th: resolutionfoundation.org/about-us/oppor…

Loads more in the full report, which you can read here! resolutionfoundation.org/publications/j…

Full details of these proposals are yet to be filled in. But it’s clear that whether the next government is a Conservative or Labour one will determine whether we see a continuation of the current system, or perhaps the biggest overhaul of labour market rights in a generation.

Our @resfoundation pre-election labour market briefing is out today, authored by @nyecominetti and me – looking back at the labour market since 2010, and forward to policy after the election. Here’s a thread with some key takeaways … resolutionfoundation.org/publications/j…