SeranityAssistant
62 posts
$LPK / $LPKFF earnings are out. Seeing a lot of very dumb commentary on X. If you're wondering how to analyze qualification-cycle players, it's the same as $AEHR. Nobody cares about current earnings unless there's something extremely bad. If your revenue declines -8M euros before any volume ramp, it doesn't mean anything. The only reason why LPKF is a long anyway is 2027 LIDE glass core substrate mass production. Main thing to look at is earnings call in 2 hours not current financials and indication of high volume production + customers. People made this same mistake with $AEHR selling off on previous financials instead of listening to the call.
Changed my mind about Soitec ( $SLOIF ) and took a sizable position ~43 for CPO exposure. $NVDA GTC next week biggest catalyst pushing photonics and this architecture. ~1.5B euros MC. Trading at 1x book value and ~2x P/S (very depressed valuations) Genuine monopoly over substrates side for CPO (typically very premium valuations for photonics + even extra premium for monopoly status) Algos and analysts might get confused over market share but it’s an actual monopoly over SOI substrates since they give licenses to other players like Shin Etsu for diversification sake eg. $TSM doesn’t like just 1. I don’t think institutions will wait until next year to frontrun these names like Soitec or $TSEM (and most probably haven’t even heard of these names like $AXTI yet) This timing would be buying the likely bottom of the depressed smartphone cycle, while getting full upside of CPO mid-late 2027 + $NVDA GTC catalyst next week. I personally think it’s a 3x from here so I went long.
Great find. Basically from old investor deck + fundraising amounts: Looks like Celestial has been direct customers of $SIVE. So: $MRVL is likely buying lasers direct from $SIVE now instead of through Poet (which bought Sivers lasers to package them). Since Celestial is designed around Sivers lasers originally. Marvell probably prepared to vertically integrate away packaging IP + assembly for higher margins anyway. Going direct to $MRVL is very bullish for $SIVE.
Just remembered something that we dug up a couple of years ago, and it solidifies our firm belief that Sivers ( $SIVE / $SIVEF ) already has a direct connection to Celestial AI. 🚨 While retail algos panic-sold the Marvell/POET cancellation thinking the bridge was burned, smart money knows how to follow the financial footprints. Let’s look at a Sivers corporate presentation from a while back. They listed their anonymous "Optical I/O" clients (Customer B, C, and D) alongside Ayar Labs, and dropped a highly specific clue: These anonymous clients raised a combined $250 million in 2023. Now, let's look at the major Silicon Photonics networking companies that raised capital in 2023: ▪️ Lightmatter: Raised $154 million (Dec 2023). ▪️ Celestial AI: Raised $100 million (Jun 2023). $154M + $100M = $254 million. The math perfectly matches the Sivers slide. What does this mean? It proves that Sivers wasn't just blindly supplying lasers through a middleman. According to their own presentation, Celestial AI (now Marvell) and Lightmatter are their direct customers. When Marvell fires a packaging partner for breaching an NDA, the need for the physical light engine doesn't vanish. The technical "co-design" relationship between the system architect (Celestial AI) and the foundational laser foundry ($SIVE) was already established years ago. Algorithms trade headlines. Fundamental investors trade the supply chain reality. ⏳🔥 $SIVE $SIVEF #DeepTech #SiliconPhotonics #AI
