James Thomason

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James Thomason

James Thomason

@jathomason

Tech Analyst | Portfolio Manager | Venture Investor | Not investment advice

Napa, CA Beigetreten Eylül 2023
514 Folgt340 Follower
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James Thomason
James Thomason@jathomason·
AngelList just launched a fund to make retail the bagholder for VCs and their LPs. It's called USVC. $500 minimum. No accreditation. The landing page dangles xAI, OpenAI, Anthropic, Crusoe, Sierra, Vercel, and Legora. The pitch: finally, regular people can own the future. It's a bailout. Retail is the exit. Trillions are trapped in unicorns that can't IPO. Secondary buyers only take these stakes at steep discounts. New LP commitments have dried up. Existing holders need a buyer at reported marks or the whole mark-to-model edifice starts repricing. USVC is that buyer. The prospectus names secondaries as a core strategy. That means buying stakes from existing holders who want out. At what price? NAV. Who sets NAV? The adviser itself, because no public prices exist for these assets. Retail subscribes at a price the sellers get to pick. That's not a market. That's a dumping ground. xAI is already 20.23% of the portfolio. One private company, no public market price, valued by the people selling you the fund. That's your concentration risk and your valuation risk wrapped into a single position. Once retail is in, they can't leave. 5% quarterly redemption at the Board's discretion, pro-rated if oversubscribed. When marks correct, redemptions oversubscribe, the fund dumps illiquid assets into a weak bid, NAV tanks, everyone still locked in eats it. Bank run with a locked door. The 0% carry pitch is a lie of omission. The underlying funds charge 20-30% carry. AngelList affiliates collect up to 5% of profits on platform funds. Retail pays the full stack indirectly. True all-in cost is 3.6% annually, waived to 2.5% through October 2026. Chime IPO'd 64% below its peak private mark. Hinge Health 63% below. The private marks are fiction. USVC is buying at those marks right now. When public price discovery hits xAI, OpenAI, Anthropic, and the rest of the portfolio, retail holds the bag. The institutional sellers are already out. This was structurally inevitable. When the only way to capture value is through exits, and exits stop happening, the only way to generate liquidity for trapped holders is to find new buyers at the old marks. Retail, with $500 minimums and no accreditation, is the deepest untapped pool on earth. My book on why this was inevitable and how to actually fix it: Venture Capital Without Unicorns. a.co/d/00hpf7ss
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James Thomason
James Thomason@jathomason·
$IBM -9% AH to $233 on a beat-and-reaffirm (not raise). Red Hat re-accelerated to +10% cc (kills the bear case IMO), FCF +13% YoY, margins +110bps. Confluent disclosure = Q2 catalyst.
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James Thomason
James Thomason@jathomason·
$NOW "beat and raise" except 95% of the FY26 guide raise was Armis. Organic guide = flat. Margin cuts 50-100bps. Beat pattern compressed to 51bps vs. 150-200bps history. Off -10% AH probably overshoots the damage. Analyst day May 4th in Las Vegas.
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James Thomason
James Thomason@jathomason·
@FatManTerra It's a bailout. Retail is the exit. Trillions are trapped in so-called unicorns that can't IPO. USVC to the rescue. Retail at $500 minimum is a massive untapped source of liquidity.
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FatMan
FatMan@FatManTerra·
I see people outside of crypto have started dabbling in exploiting their retail followers. Here's what you didn't disclose in your post: the fund has an annual fee of 1% of your account balance, plus fund running costs of around 0.5%, plus deal fees and profit share. The estimated annual drag is about 2.5%. Not to mention the extremely questionable valuation of some of the companies being invested in, possibly buying the top, but that's speculative. Even without speculating, from a pure EV standpoint, the annual fee is brutal (and it compounds pretty quickly). Meanwhile buying broader index funds has a drag of around 0.1-0.2% annually. Your fund's fee is going to be twenty to thirty times higher. Great pitch though, I'm sure many will blindly invest. Congrats.
Naval@naval

Introducing USVC - a single basket of high-growth venture capital, for everyone. No accreditation required, SEC-registered, and a very low $500 minimum. Includes OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI, Sierra, Crusoe, Legora, and Vercel. As USVC adds more companies, investors will own a piece of that too. Liquidity typically comes when companies exit, but we’re aiming to let investors redeem up to 5% of the fund every quarter. This isn’t guaranteed, but if we can make it work, you won’t be locked up like in a traditional venture fund. It runs on AngelList, which already supports $125 billion of investor capital. And I’ve joined USVC as the Chairman of its Investment Committee. — Go back to the 1500s, you set sail for the new world to find tons of gold - that was adventure capital. Early-stage technology is the modern version. It says we are going to create something new, and it’s risky. It’s daring. But ordinary people can’t invest until it’s old, until it’s no longer interesting, until everybody has access to it. By the time a stock IPOs, most of the alpha is gone. The adventure is gone. Public market investors are literally last in line. This problem has become farcical in the last decade. Startups are reaching trillion dollar valuations in the private markets while ordinary investors have their noses up to the glass, wondering when they’ll be let in. Investing in private markets isn’t easy. You need feet on the ground. You need judgment built over years. Most people don’t have the patience to wait ten or twenty years for an investment to come to fruition. But there is no more productive, harder-working way to deploy a dollar than in true venture capital. USVC enables you to invest in venture capital in a broad, accessible, professionally-managed way, through a single basket of innovation, focused on high-growth startups, at all stages. It is how you bet on the future of tech: the smartest young people in the world, working insane hours, leveraged to the max, with code, hardware, capital, media, and community. Your dollar doesn’t work harder anywhere. There is an old line - in the future, either you are telling a computer what to do, or a computer is telling you what to do. You don’t want to be on the wrong side of that transaction. USVC lets you buy the future, but you buy it now. Then you wait, and if you are right, you get paid. Get access here: usvc.com

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James Thomason
James Thomason@jathomason·
It's a bailout. Retail is the exit. Trillions are trapped in unicorns that can't IPO. Secondary buyers only take these stakes at steep discounts. New LP commitments have dried up. Existing holders need a buyer at reported marks or the whole mark-to-model edifice starts repricing. x.com/jathomason/sta…
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gemchanger
gemchanger@gemchange_ltd·
ok so everyone on here is hyping USVC like it's the second coming of VC access for retail. let me ruin it real quick the pitch: 1% fee, 0% carry, $500 min, back the next OpenAI before it's obvious the reality, from their own prospectus: gross expense ratio is 3.61%. the "no carry" is cope - it's a fund-of-funds, so the underlying VC funds still charge 2/20 and you pay it. they just bury it under "acquired fund fees." the 2.5% rate is a temp waiver that expires Oct 2026 "before it's obvious" - the portfolio is xAI (20% weight, already acquired by SpaceX), OpenAI, Anthropic, Vercel, Crusor. these are the most obvious names in tech. your uber driver knows them 44% of the fund is deployed. rest sits in cash charging you fees liquidity: no public listing. exit = quarterly tender offers, max 5% NAV, board discretion, can be cancelled. In 2029 when AI craters and everyone wants out, guess what gets capped first Ankur is a solid operator but has never returned a VC fund. Vibe I and II are both unrealized. zero '40 Act experience. solo PM with Naval as nominal chairman the comp is DXYZ - retail private tech fund that traded 900% over NAV at launch. same playbook, different wrapper this isn't access, more like cosplay access. marketing is A+, the actual deal is mid at best
gemchanger tweet media
AngelList@AngelList

Announcing: USVC AngelList exists to power the innovation economy. To date, we have powered $125 billion in assets, 25,000+ funds, and 13,000+ startups. Today, we’re opening it for retail access. @usvc_ is a regulated fund that holds stakes in promising private companies. There are no accreditation requirements and anyone can get started with as little as $500. Early portfolio includes xAI, Anthropic, OpenAI, Sierra, Vercel, Crusoe, and Legora. Own a stake in the companies defining the future. Learn more: usvc.com

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James Thomason
James Thomason@jathomason·
Venture capital has disrupted every industry except itself. My new book is an attempt to fix that. Venture Capital Without Unicorns diagnoses why the model fails most founders, most LPs, and most of the economy, then lays out a specific structural redesign that plugs into today's ecosystem. The contract, the simulators, and the accounting work are all open source. Out now: a.co/d/00hpf7ss
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Ethan Kho
Ethan Kho@ethanrkho·
Why being a great analyst does not mean you will be a great investor. Brett Caughran (@FundamentEdge) explains: "There's a key distinction in being a great analyst and being a great investor." "Being a great analyst is a bit more of a scientific process — building models, doing research, meeting management. That's a much more teachable skill." "Judgment and being a good investor is much more difficult. It's much more difficult to evaluate." "It's hard for even allocators to evaluate — is this alpha you've captured for the last three years just a lucky bet? Can you generate that alpha over a cycle?" "Great investment firms have inescapably a marriage of good process and good judgment." "Talent is revealed at investment firms over the years, more than trained." "A typical 30-person fund — maybe 25 are analysts. They're doing the work, covering companies, building models, feeding that process up to the decision makers." "The ones who rise through the ranks are the ones who have that real talent to take investment process and translate it into investment results. A lot of that is just the revealed intellectual wiring of being a good investor over time."
Ethan Kho@ethanrkho

"85% accuracy on Wall Street will get you 100% fired." Brett Caughran (@FundamentEdge) has managed analysts at Citadel, D.E. Shaw & tiger cub funds. His take on AI and the future of junior analysts: "There's almost no better time to be starting a career as a fundamental investor. These tools let junior investors get to the juicy part of the investment process more quickly." We cover: - Why the junior analyst role is transforming faster than any point in the last 20 years — and why the juniors who adapt will reach the real work of investing years sooner - The old grunt work that's already dead — and what's replacing it - Why billion-dollar funds won't cut analyst headcount, but the job description is changing dramatically - “Should I still learn Excel modeling?" — yes, because you can't debug what you don't understand - Why creativity & tenacity are becoming the new differentiators over raw quantitative skill - How multi-manager alpha factories scaled from $10B to $60B+ while sustaining double-digit returns — proof that more information hasn't compressed alpha - Why reading a 10-K with pen and paper still matters even when AI can summarize it in seconds - The most underrated skill in the best investors he's worked with: genuine curiosity Thanks so much to Brett (@FundamentEdge) for coming on Odds on Open! Highlights: 00:00 Intro 01:29 Frameworks for developing a differentiated variant perception 05:16 Financial drivers vs. narrative cycles: The Focus 5 framework 08:29 Analyzing the stock vs. business: Bayesian updating in public markets 12:52 AI as an intellectual power tool vs. consensus "alpha slop" 17:21 Accelerating the hunch-to-hypothesis pipeline with AI sniff tests 21:52 The evolution of junior analysts: From data entry to primary research 28:46 Why market microstructure and behavioral alpha prevent index efficiency 38:44 Training junior analysts: Earning the right to use power tools 48:28 LLMs as orchestration tools for human primary research 54:55 Teachable scientific process vs. revealed investment judgment 57:54 Common threads across Multi-Managers, Single Managers, and Tiger Cubs 59:49 Curiosity as a meta-skill and the art of system thinking

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James Thomason
James Thomason@jathomason·
Really sharp piece. The one place I'd push: the 140x ceiling on OpenAI is a signal that equity has stopped doing its job. The reason a 140x doesn't return the fund is the same reason 70% of your seed portfolio goes to zero. Pure equity captures value only at exits, and exits are compressing from both ends. Better picking helps at the margin. But a better contract changes the distribution. There's a third path between concentrating bets and hunting the unicorns. Change the instrument so the middle of your portfolio stops being dead weight. The entire VC ecosystem is downstream of pre-seed and seed investors. Who says we have to play their game on their terms? I wrote a whole book on this: Venture Capital Without Unicorns. Amazon: a.co/d/00hpf7ss
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James Thomason
James Thomason@jathomason·
This would make the HPE Autonomy acquisition look smart in hindsight
SpaceX@SpaceX

SpaceXAI and @cursor_ai are now working closely together to create the world’s best coding and knowledge work AI. The combination of Cursor’s leading product and distribution to expert software engineers with SpaceX’s million H100 equivalent Colossus training supercomputer will allow us to build the world’s most useful models. Cursor has also given SpaceX the right to acquire Cursor later this year for $60 billion or pay $10 billion for our work together.

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SpaceX
SpaceX@SpaceX·
SpaceXAI and @cursor_ai are now working closely together to create the world’s best coding and knowledge work AI. The combination of Cursor’s leading product and distribution to expert software engineers with SpaceX’s million H100 equivalent Colossus training supercomputer will allow us to build the world’s most useful models. Cursor has also given SpaceX the right to acquire Cursor later this year for $60 billion or pay $10 billion for our work together.
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James Thomason
James Thomason@jathomason·
This a really weird way to say you couldn't afford to buy Cursor
SpaceX@SpaceX

SpaceXAI and @cursor_ai are now working closely together to create the world’s best coding and knowledge work AI. The combination of Cursor’s leading product and distribution to expert software engineers with SpaceX’s million H100 equivalent Colossus training supercomputer will allow us to build the world’s most useful models. Cursor has also given SpaceX the right to acquire Cursor later this year for $60 billion or pay $10 billion for our work together.

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James Thomason
James Thomason@jathomason·
Here's my reward for backporting my AI pipeline to Gemini. Thanks @Google !
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Gary Marcus
Gary Marcus@GaryMarcus·
Violence is not the answer. Boycott is the answer. This one’s easy. There is ample evidence that Altman is a dishonest person with inordinate power that we should not trust. But the way forward to is get the board to remove him, not to throw bombs at his house. Humanity must take the high road. The way to take the high road is to stop using his products, in protest of his implied openness to mass surveillance, his mass IP theft, and his company’s opposition to liability for their actions. When people stop using ChatGPT, Altman will have to go; it’s simple as that. Quite possibly the COO or CFO will step in, and we (and OpenAI itself) will all be better off.
Dean W. Ball@deanwball

The guy who allegedly threw a Molotov cocktail through Sam Altman’s window seems to have been an adherent to pause/stop AI. I am entirely unsurprised and have been warning about this for a long time now. I am fine with people advocating for their preferred policies—if that includes a “pause” on AI development, so be it, even if I disagree strongly. But the obvious reality is that the rhetoric of this community—which to be *extremely clear*, is a very small and non-representative subset of the AI safety community—is closer to ecoterrorism than it is to a more typical activist policy effort. Every time I have written about existential risk in recent months, I have been called a mass murderer. People with ⏹️ and ⏸️ in their handles confidently tell me that I am murdering my own baby boy and every other child on the planet. Another prominent one of these people has called me a traitor to America. I only use my own examples because I know them; this rhetoric is representative of how this fringe of the AI safety world communicates with everyone. The rhetoric of the pause/stop crowd is out of control and it has gotten worse with time. This rhetoric always had the potential to cause violence and now this seems to be no longer hypothetical.

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James Thomason
James Thomason@jathomason·
@StockSavvyShay @FuturumEquities A PEG of 2 is not expensive nor is a PEG of 0.5 cheap. A PEG above 2 is not a “danger zone”. A company can have a PEG > 2 or < 1 forever and ever.
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Shay Boloor
Shay Boloor@StockSavvyShay·
PETER LYNCH’S FAVORITE METRIC IS THE PEG RATIO PEG < 1 usually means mispriced growth PEG > 2 starts to push into the danger zone Popular software names right now: • $NET ~4.7x • $FIG ~2.9x • $CRWD ~2.7x • $PANW ~2.5x • $PLTR ~2.4x • $DDOG ~2.3x • $SHOP ~1.9x • $SNOW ~1.9x • $MDB ~1.8x • $ZS ~1.6x • $RBRK ~1.5x • $APP ~1.0x • $PATH ~1.0x • $NOW ~1.0x • $CRM ~0.8x • $ADBE ~0.8x • $HUBS ~0.7x • $MNDY ~0.7x • $TEAM ~0.6x • $ZETA ~0.5x
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James Thomason
James Thomason@jathomason·
@StockSavvyShay @fiscal_ai I don’t think anyone, including Anthropic, has figured out how to do agentic at scale for enterprises. There’s a good chance NOW, CRM, and other saas with data moats figures it out.
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James Thomason@jathomason·
@simple_traderz @StockSavvyShay @fiscal_ai Memory and chips are late cycle, as is AI infrastructure and optics, though I can see optics running through 2Q. Space has some real names if you choose wisely. IMO, drone defense ftw.
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SimpleTrades
SimpleTrades@simple_traderz·
@StockSavvyShay @fiscal_ai I am staying away from SaaS . Current theme is memory , chips , AI infra , optics , space that will be next big
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James Thomason@jathomason·
@StockSavvyShay There’s a really good reason $ONDS won’t break $20. Hope that isnt your pick. 😬
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Shay Boloor
Shay Boloor@StockSavvyShay·
Wild to see my $AEHR position up 4x and become the biggest holding in the growth portfolio. I also started a brand new position today. Any guesses? Hint: it’s in the drone thematic.
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🏴‍☠️@calvinfroedge·
It's actually time to remove the President from office when he sits down, writes about "ending an entire civilization", and then clicks "send"
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