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Laucha
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Laucha
@lautsab
Patagónico porteño. En TW: vino, rugby y Newell's carajo! , más alguna otra cosita. #Cuevero #AWT
Beigetreten Nisan 2012
1.2K Folgt1.8K Follower
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My long term account is down -8.5% YTD.
in Jan everyone was flashing their gains.
now nobody is showing losses.
why? simple reason, they are all too good to accept
Truth is: every long term investor is down this year
if your portfolio is down ytd- you're not alone
** this is a non-active portfolio where I buy & hold companies I like for Fundamental or technical reasons**
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RT @vmenditto: 🐔 Urgente Adidas
Estación Echeverría su te línea B
Outlet
Campera L River
$63.000
-20% MP + cuotas sin interes
Se la…
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@cristiannmillo no fueron ni son los balances el motivo de la baja.
Brasil (referencia regional) muestra caídas generalizadas en bancos, energía y ETF país.
Esto es compresión de riesgo en EM dentro de un contexto global más frágil.
Cuando el flujo sale, no discrimina.
Cristian@cristiannmillo
Muy fuertes las caidas en el sector bancario. Los balances fueron un desastre. Con serios problemas en morosidades y desaceleración de créditos. Ademas se acopla al selloff global con suba del DXY (dollar index). $GGAL -4% 42dlrs $BMA -6% 71 dlrs $SUPV -9% 8.16 dlrs. Un sector prácticamente sin valor.
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JUST IN: Shafaq News is reporting that Iraq has fully suspended production at the Rumaila oil field. A circulating Iraqi document cites the reason: storage tanks at southern Basra ports have reached capacity because the Strait of Hormuz is closed and tankers cannot load.
No operator confirmation from BP or PetroChina yet. No Iraqi Ministry statement. This remains unconfirmed at Tier 1. But the mechanism described in that document is not speculation. It is arithmetic.
Rumaila produces 1.4 to 1.5 million barrels per day. That oil flows south to Basra terminals for export through Hormuz. Hormuz transits have collapsed 80%. Tankers are not loading. Storage fills. When storage is full, you shut the well or you have a safety incident. There is no third option.
This is not a military shutdown. No drone hit Rumaila. No missile struck Basra. This is the Hormuz actuarial blockade propagating upstream through the simplest physical constraint imaginable: you cannot produce oil you have nowhere to put.
The confirmed Kurdish shutdowns, Shaikan, Atrush, Sarsang, totalling 200,000 barrels per day, were precautionary. Operators could not verify the security environment, so they suspended. Verification cost inversion at the field level.
Rumaila, if confirmed, is different. It is not a security decision. It is a storage decision. The downstream blockade has physically backed up into the upstream. The system is choking on its own output because the exit valve, Hormuz, is shut.
Iraq loses roughly $127 million per day at current prices for every day Rumaila is offline. That is $3.8 billion per month. From a field that was never attacked.
The Hormuz actuarial blockade is no longer a shipping story. It is now a production story. The supply loss is compounding. open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…
Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡@shanaka86
The Strait of Hormuz did not close because of missiles. It closed because seven insurance companies filed paperwork. Between March 1 and 2, seven of twelve P&I clubs insuring 90% of the world's ocean-going tonnage issued 72-hour cancellation notices for Gulf war risk. Transits collapsed 80%. Forty-plus supertankers sit idle. Thirteen LNG tankers diverted. The world's most important energy chokepoint shut down by spreadsheet, not by strike. This is 2008 repo transferred to a new substrate. In September 2008 banks stopped lending not because they were insolvent but because verifying counterparty solvency cost more than the overnight loan was worth. Identical mechanism. Gulf reinsurers cannot model the risk. So they did not reprice. They withdrew entirely. A military blockade ends when the campaign ends. An actuarial blockade ends when reinsurers decide it has ended. Those are fundamentally different timelines. Brent at $79 prices a four-to-eight-week disruption. The evidence supports six to eighteen months for full insurance reinstatement. The Red Sea never even triggered full P&I withdrawal and premiums remain elevated two years later. The 2008 repo market took twelve to eighteen months to normalise with TARP behind it. The maritime insurance market has received nothing. March 5, midnight GMT. Cancellation notices take effect. Zero commercially insured vessels transit Hormuz after that without a government backstop that does not yet exist. Four to sixteen months of unpriced duration sitting in plain sight. If I am wrong: Hormuz transits recover above 70 vessels per day within 14 days of March 5. Brent sustains below $75 for five sessions. A multi-flag government backstop is announced within seven days. Until then, $79 is not pricing a temporary disruption. It is pricing a misunderstanding. Full 8,000+ word analysis on Substack - open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…
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The first real signal of a war is not the missile.
It is the price of exit.
Tonight the ultra rich are paying up to £260,000 ($350,000) for a single private jet charter just to get out of the Gulf, because the normal map is gone.
Dubai, Doha, Abu Dhabi, the transit machine that moves the planet’s people and capital, is effectively paused. Airspace restrictions, security alerts, mass cancellations, crews stranded.
So the evacuation route is medieval in a futuristic wrapper.
Step 1: disappear from the skyline.
Step 2: get picked up by a private security team.
Step 3: sit in an SUV convoy for a brutal 10 hour drive across desert highways to Riyadh, one of the few hubs still functioning.
Step 4: buy a seat on a jet that has no refunds, no guarantees, and a contract built around force majeure.
That is not travel.
That is a market discovering what “permission to leave” costs when the state cannot provide normality.
Here is the part everyone misses: this is how regimes change.
Not through speeches. Through pricing.
When commercial aviation freezes, the world splits into two economies overnight.
One economy waits in terminals, refreshes apps, sleeps on floors, runs out of cash, runs out of options.
The other economy converts money into motion and motion into safety.
And the premium they are paying is not for leather seats.
It is for probability.
The same logic will hit everything next.
Insurance reprices first.
Freight and shipping lanes follow.
Energy and commodities move from “supply” to “security.”
Then credit tightens because every lender realizes the collateral has a missile shaped tail risk.
You are watching a new global tax being born.
Call it the volatility tax.
Call it the verification tax.
Either way, the bill is rising and it is not being paid equally.
Question: when the price of exit goes parabolic, what do you think happens to the price of everything else?
open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…
Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡@shanaka86
Dubai just shut down. The busiest international airport on earth. Closed. Indefinitely. Dubai International and Al Maktoum International both suspended all operations on February 28 per official Dubai Airports statement. Over 280 flights canceled. 250 more delayed. The airspace that handles more international passengers than any hub on the planet went dark this morning because Iranian ballistic missiles were flying through it. Now read the airline list and understand the scale of what just broke. Emirates. Grounded. Etihad. Grounded. Qatar Airways. Suspended all flights to and from Doha after Qatari airspace closed. Air India. Every single flight to every destination in the entire Middle East. Suspended indefinitely. Turkish Airlines. Suspended flights to Bahrain, Iraq, Iran, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Syria, Qatar, and the UAE until at least March 2. Lufthansa. Dubai suspended. Air France. Tel Aviv and Beirut suspended. Wizz Air. Israel, Dubai, Abu Dhabi, and Amman suspended until March 7. British Airways. Affected. Virgin Atlantic. Affected. Japan Airlines. Affected. Norwegian Air, LOT Polish, Scandinavian Airlines, Aegean, Iberia, Air Arabia, PIA, Saudia, Air Algerie. All affected. All grounded or rerouting. This is not a regional disruption. This is the global aviation network breaking at one of its most critical nodes. Dubai is not just an airport. It is the single largest connecting hub between Asia, Europe, Africa, and the Middle East. Every flight from Mumbai to London, from Singapore to Frankfurt, from Nairobi to New York that routes through the Gulf is now either canceled, delayed, or burning extra fuel on thousand-mile detours around closed airspace. IndiGo just suspended flights to Almaty, Baku, Tashkent, and Tbilisi until March 28. Not March 2. March 28. A month of Central Asian connectivity erased because Iranian missiles crossed the flight paths. The cost is compounding by the hour. Rerouted flights burn more fuel when oil is spiking past 100 dollars a barrel because the same conflict that closed the airspace is threatening the strait that moves 21 million barrels a day. Airlines are paying surge prices for fuel to fly longer routes around a war zone that did not exist yesterday morning. Every hour the airspace stays closed, the losses multiply across carriers already operating on thin margins. And here is what nobody is calculating yet. Dubai’s economy runs on connectivity. Tourism. Trade. Finance. Logistics. All of it depends on DXB being open. The UAE just absorbed an act of war on its sovereign territory with a civilian killed in Abu Dhabi from missile debris. The country that built its entire economic model on being the safe, neutral, connected hub of the Middle East is now closed for business because the country it had no quarrel with fired missiles through its airspace. Iran did not just attack military bases this morning. Iran shut down the economic engine of the Gulf. That is a cost Tehran cannot afford to repay and the UAE will not forget.
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PLAYAS EUROPEAS EN VERANO
Hay vuelos a playas en verano europeo desde 1220 usd🔥
Hay opción de hasta 3 cuotas
Para ver opciones
urls.promociones-aereas.com.ar/i9ond83ccg
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El rugby es un deporte más lindo cuando Thomas Ramos está adentro de una cancha.
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Llegó nueva añada de @mugroncafayate !!!
@claudiomaza1
Ciudad Autónoma de Buenos Aires, Argentina 🇦🇷 Español
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El lineup degustado de vinos cumpleañeros de anoche...tremendos el Otronia blanco y el Rutini Gewurztraminer. El Iscay (2009, y enterisimo) fue la estrella
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Es inminente el despacho de vinos cordobeses puerta - puerta a capital y provincia de Bs As.
Voy a brindar por eso con esta maravilla.
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