Dan
14 posts


@Hoostethics is there a necessary break or what's the point of waiting 6 months?
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50ml cerebrolysin. over 9 days.
administered into my vastus lateralis…
𝙝𝙚𝙧𝙚’𝙨 𝙬𝙝𝙖𝙩 𝙝𝙖𝙥𝙥𝙚𝙣𝙚𝙙
day 1:
- nothing.
day 2:
- nothing.
day 3:
- sleep inertia lifted completely despite only getting 5-6hrs (increase in recovery per hour)
- dream become more vivid
day 4:
- brainfog significantly improved
- later day wakefulness improved
- overall increases in energy/focus noted
- the mind began to enter a new baseline state….imagine floating inside a bullet train with zero oscillation; the mind is still, yet flying simultaneously.
day 5:
- same as day 4
day 6:
- inhibiting thoughts in social settings drastically decreased
- overthinking obliterated almost entirely
day 7
- slight improvements in emotional resilience were noted
- morning brainfog lifted completely
day 8:
- same as day 7. all effects amalgamated into new baseline
day 9
- everything continues to compound
- facial aesthetics seemed more vibrant/debloated
i am hard to impress when it comes to trying new pharmaceuticals/research chemicals/peptides but cerebrolysin definitely lived up to expectations.
it’s a no-brainer addition to anyone’s longevity protocol.
I’ll be running this again in the next 6 months or so.
not medical advice.


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Dan retweetet

for law AI will get it 99% right, but the 1% is what gets you in trouble
you pay a lawyer precisely because 'you don't know what you don't know', so they do the risk assessment and mitigation on your behalf
for litigation AI might allucinate or might miss some strong argument, so would you really want to lose an important case for saving some thousands?
issue is that the guy that spends on a lawyer will always beat the one that doesn't, because even the lawyer uses AI, but it also has that legal expertise and human perspective on issues, hence double damage
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I just heard a Goldman Sachs exec say knowledge work is going to zero. and it’s something I’ve been thinking about..
every lawyer, consultant, accountant. they all get paid for the same reason. they know something you don't. that's it. that's the whole business model.
AI made knowledge infinite.
so what happens when everyone has the same information at their fingertips? what's actually worth paying for anymore?
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You have always been wrong about the arbitrage strategy on Prediction Markets
Almost all people who have heard about the arbitrage strategy on @Polymarket and other PMs imagine it works like this:
YES + NO < $1
But in reality, it's much more complicated.
Let's take the market "Will it rain tomorrow in NYC?" as an example:
YES $0.7 + NO $0.3 = $1.
It seems that arbitrage strategy can't be used here.
But if we find a logically opposite market to that one and perform math calculations, we will find an arbitrage opportunity.
For example, "Will it be sunny tomorrow in NYC?" market where YES: $0.40 and NO: $0.60.
And his is where you use an easy math formula to list all results and logically remove ones that don't work.
Possible combos (2x2=4):
1. YES A + NO B (one side only)
2. NO A + YES B (one side only)
3. NO A + NO B ($0.3 + $0.6 = $0.9 < $1)
4. YES A + YES A (impossible)
Now we see that the 3rd combination works for us.
Where we initially didn't see Arbitrage, we got a spread of 10%.
For more combinations and to eliminate those that don't work, you may use the formula from the attached pic.
If you want to learn more about arbitrage strategy, read the quoted article. Gl guys!
GIF

Roan@RohOnChain
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Option 6:
Ask your investors for support. VCs are in this to make money, after all. They’ve already invested in you, so it’s in their interest to help you hit key milestones and protect their upside. It’s better than leaving you to carry everything alone and potentially burn out, especially when the outcome affects them too.
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Situation:
$10M raised, $1.5M arr, 12 months runway. The founder wants out and admits, "This isn't my life's work."
Options:
1. Fundraise: grow fast, burn more, and go for fundraise right now
- Pro: Keeps optionality open, can take secondaries if you get a hot round
- Con: Investors need growth, at least 3-5x, the market is brutal for Series A right now
2. Strategic acquisition: push to convert partnerships to acquisition conversations
- Pro: Best potential multiple, buyers pay for distribution and talent, not just revenue
- Con: Catching lightning in a bottle. Your push doesn't mean they want you. One VP leaves, one strategy shift, and the deal dies. It takes at least 5-6 months. Prior relationship needed.
3. Financial acquisition via broker - find brokers willing to work with low-revenue companies
- Pro: More predictable process, actual market pricing.
- Con: Math rarely works for founders. The price is not justifiable to the founders. Earnouts are structured so you'd make more by taking a job elsewhere.
4. Cut costs and grind it out - get to a skeleton crew and maintenance mode
- Pro: Extends runway, buys time for something to break your way
- Con: Opportunity cost is real. founders checked out means the company isn't going anywhere. Grinding without conviction kills companies slowly
5. Do everything at once - try all of the above at the same time.
- Pro: None.
- Con: Half-ass both processes. Investors hear you're selling, and you're dead.
Action:
1. Commit to one lane. You can change later, but pick now.
2. If selling, get an actual offer from the interested party first. Soft interest means nothing.
3. Build relationships with 3-4 similar strategic buyers as leverage. Start from a partnership angle.
4. Keep the broker as plan D when the runway hits 6 months
5. Sell on momentum. "We 2x'ed last year" is a story. "Growth is slowing" is a different story
6. Assume 5-6 months to close. manage runway accordingly
7. Your team can't know. Your customers can't know. This is a full-time job on top of your full-time job.
Do the above to increase your chances of an acquisition.
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@PlumbNick The fact that she was the 25th employee and still can't retire after 28 years is everything you need to know.
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Can anyone with an MBA help me understand the “theory” behind laying off the 25th most tenured employee in a company of over a million people?
In my experience (I was top 8.58% of tenure), the cultural value and institutional knowledge, possessed by people like her was well worth her wages.
But like 16k of us, she woke up locked out, laid off and jobless on Wednesday morning.
And immediately pushed forward - which is why I don’t understand the “theory” behind some of these decisions.
#amazonlayoffs @USDOL

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@whamcbfw4 This alreasy exists. You can buy IP royalties, albeit true that it might not be public yet, and only professional investors might get access to.
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It is easier to enter a field that is already validated than to try to validate one yourself. Validation is more time-consuming and riskier. However, if you can provide a highly complex product that is difficult for others to imitate and there is a clear advantage to being a first mover, then you should definitely prioritize that approach.
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@nickgiva1 Exaggerated take, but I am quite confident that his philosophy, given that those individuals were his apprentices, should help in assessing the outlook for the US.
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@OmriBuilds Correct. A properly distributed minimum viable product is far more valuable than a perfect product that reaches few people. If many users engage with it, leaving feedback or revealing usage patterns through analytics, you can refine it and make it even more compelling.
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@LizAnnSonders Investing = Long-term positive expected value
Gambling = Long-term negative expected value
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