Nathan

154 posts

Nathan

Nathan

@nathanjustbufc

Beigetreten Temmuz 2023
1 Folgt5 Follower
Nathan
Nathan@nathanjustbufc·
@AdamMancini4 Though inherently bullish I'm wondering why not switch to trading more shorts with ES spending this much time down trending. I'm away working 5:30a-7p PST, have to trade after, am considering this myself so I have more opportunities.
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Adam Mancini
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4·
Key to remember the defining feature of an edge is repeatability. If you are doing something different on every trade (different setup, different management), you likely arent exploiting an edge. For me, its the same setup, managed the same, day after day, trade after trade
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Nathan
Nathan@nathanjustbufc·
@AdamMancini4 thanks Adam. I have a hard time with these right at the open entries esp when nl references the entry as low quality :/ I guess context has changed. been burned so many times trying to play the open
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Adam Mancini
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4·
Quick work today. As always every "elevator down" dip sets up a squeeze in #ES_F on a Failed Breakdown. This is a law - with 0 exceptions. We flushed 6925 at 830AM. I posted 6925 had to recover to rally. We did. Targets were 6930 (hit), 6934 (hit). 6942, 6947 if ES wants more
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4

A little micro-dose of volatility finally after 3 days of non-stop rally in #ES_F, getting to 6930 target. 6925 support and as I posted, it was well tested. We lost it, and flushed. Bulls need to recover 6925 now to see 6930, 6934, 6942+ 6910, 6900 remain below if vol stays

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Nathan
Nathan@nathanjustbufc·
@spyscalp @imasadtrader @AdamMancini4 wow your entries must be pretty good, 10p seems pretty far target, wish i could get entries like that. i still haven't been able to consistently get good entries with much larger stops 10-12 pts :|
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Adam Mancini
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4·
I'm a price only trader which means I pay *0* attention to macro. Macro analyses are based on inferring what price *should be* doing (& may not for months or ever) rather than what price *is doing now*. Price presents my setup, I follow. Goal is make money daily,not do analysis
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Nathan
Nathan@nathanjustbufc·
@AdamMancini4 I wasn't sure if you were still holding over weekends these days with headline risk increased. I guess so long as you have a 30pt or so buffer and small position it's low risk Be interesting to see what first possible entry will be if we do gap up.
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Adam Mancini
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4·
As we prep for another likely gap up open, I've warned since Wednesday 3pm hourly to hold long runners (now +130 points) & legs like this are why runners are key. Trailing a runner on *every* trade guarantees exposure to trends but also cures FOMO. Excerpt from Friday newsletter:
Adam Mancini tweet media
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Nathan
Nathan@nathanjustbufc·
@ashwagamma @AdamMancini4 nice, do you often go for those type of plays and have success with them? I debate them but am scared too. i.e. where it basically just bounces up very fast all green one level no acceptance, then typically down.
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Ashwagamma
Ashwagamma@ashwagamma·
@AdamMancini4 worked nice, kept it small, kept it tight, end the day with the win on the macro fbd! 😇 next week should be mighty fun 👍
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Adam Mancini
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4·
Day's like today are inherently anomalies. Nobody can predict when a Presidential Tweet will tape bomb #ES_F -2% (unless one has top called for weeks). Its a 1x a year lottery. Our job is to react & know how ES behaves afterwards (snap back squeeze, on major reclaim to backtest)
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4

Price continues to like the 6675 level. I posted to watch for sweeps and recoveries of 6660. We lost 6660, sold down to 6641, recovered. #ES_F ran back to ~6675 again, and dipped. Bulls must recover that 6675-80 to start what will be a violent snap-back rally. Not before then

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Adam Mancini
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4·
There's 6771 2nd target hit. After yesterday's rally, today was routine: #ES_F had to dip & digest the rally. 6745 was the main back-test point as posted. Held exact. This setup 6763-65 target 1 (hit), 6771 target #2 (hit). 6776, 6782 next. Ideally can base more before new highs
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4

Levels continue to respect with precision in #ES_F as we digest yesterdays big run, and build structure for next leg. 6745 was the 1st big back-test for todays dip. Held exact. 1st target off that 6763-65 (clear shelf), hit. 6771, 6776+ if ES wants more. Next leg down only<6745

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Adam Mancini
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4·
6469 has been an ATM machine in #ES_F, paying over & over. 11:48AM Friday, I posted reclaim would target 6477, 6484. We hit ~84. In Friday's 4pm newsletter, I gave same setup & at 6pm last night, we got it & ran to 84 again. 8am today, same drill Glued here, waiting for unpin
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4

As stated 1hr ago and all Friday, only 1 lvl matters in #ES_F: 6469. Tested 17+ times in last week & been glued here all day today again. Right off 6pm open last night, we got the planned 6469 reclaim. Targets were 6477, 6484 both hit. No change: 6477, 6484 above. Same supports

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Shimsham
Shimsham@Shimsham24·
@AdamMancini4 It crossed my mind to get in this morning but I definitely second guessed myself because I didn't do great on a reclaim yesterday. I guess this morning the entry would have been around 8:30 eastern for the reclaim of 6301. Or midnight-ish for 6291 since there was demand
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Adam Mancini
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4·
There's 6319 target #3 hit. All 3 targets given at 8am (6305, 6311, 6319) hit. As newsletter readers know, most my trades are 8am to 11am in #ES_F. Leave risk free runner. 6324, 6333 triangle res above, then macro breakout 6301, 6291=supports (dip below to triangle support)
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4

Quick work to start today and there's today's 1st two targets hit before the open even in #ES_F. 6291 (held), 6301 were supports as posted. 6305, 6311 were 1st and 2nd targets. Both hit. Leave lotto runner. 6319, 6333 triangle res above. 6291 fails, dip 6277 triangle support.

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Nathan
Nathan@nathanjustbufc·
@AdamMancini4 That's heartening, as I miss almost every breakout and even support buys - without an obvious wick below or taking out significant low. Been burned so many times esp around open. I can't stay in like you can (trade 3 micros) but have gone almost exclusively to "scary sell" fbds.
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Adam Mancini
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4·
Note: This was provided in yesterdays newsletter but key to remember I never trade "breakouts" of big macro patterns since they fakeout too often. I position with institutions on the support FBDs, then just leave a runner for breakout. When its ready, its ready. Will be big
Adam Mancini tweet media
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Nathan
Nathan@nathanjustbufc·
@AdamMancini4 Entered 79 at 6:52 stop below the low, thinking FB had recovered 77, got stopped out ultimately on the next big dip :( Will be curious to see how you played it in NL.
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Adam Mancini
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4·
As posted Friday, we only get vol with tariff headlines in #ES_F. Thursday eve, we got it, longs triggered. Targets given for Fri were 6305, 6311+. Both hit. More headlines Saturday, gap down Bulls must recover 6282 to see 6290+. 6261-63=triangle support. Held. 6252, 6244 below
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4

After being spoiled last eve with tariff headlines, its back to default mode (chop/grind up) until next headline batch. 6288 was support/Failed Breakdown long trigger. Targets given 8am were 6298, 6305. #ES_F agrees, stuck at 6305 for hours 6311, 6319 if it wants bonus. Dip<77

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Nathan
Nathan@nathanjustbufc·
@AdamMancini4 @hsk516 @ashwagamma Curious to see entry in NL. High vol, shallow FB, so min acceptance required (i think). Took 97 right as it was pulling back :/ guess everyone else scalped in early. Trying to be disciplined ended up in the middle. Guess have to get mindset into 5p scalp mode for these.
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Adam Mancini
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4·
Its been a straightforward and this is what a classic triangle breakout looks like. As posted ystd/at 8am, #ES_F built a 3 day triangle with 6311 resistance. Breakout targetted 6319, 6325-30, both hit. 6340, 6350-52 bonus, just hold runners. 6311 triangle res, is now support
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4

There's 6325-30 target tagged exact in #ES_F. At 8am today, I posted the targets for the breakout of the 3 day triangle (with 6311 resistance) were 6319 (hit), then 6325-30 (hit). With both hit, runners handle any push to ATH's. 6340, 6350-52 are bonus today 6311 remains support

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Nathan
Nathan@nathanjustbufc·
@AdamMancini4 Thanks Adam. Find these cross or may cross the open trades quite tough, feel like toss up if will just dump at open between levels when was looking great. Wider stops needed too. Stuck with this one glad I did.
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Adam Mancini
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4·
We continue range-bound, holiday week trading in #ES_F. 6230 to 6250 as posted 8am yesterday is the range, with 6250 acting as a heavy magnet. *Don't overtrade*. I posted 6242 reclaim would target 6250. Here now, protect gains, leave runner. 6256, 6261, 6271 above. Same supports
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4

We continue to see good range trading in #ES_F as we build structure for next trend. Range given yesterday was 6227-33 to 6250, with 6261, 6271 breakout targets. We hit 71 overnight, back the range now No change: 6242 reclaim now sees 6250 magnet, 6256+. 6230-32 below, then 6221

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Nathan
Nathan@nathanjustbufc·
@jyblazze @AdamMancini4 ✅ noted thx for reply. Getting in too early has been a bane of mine, think have to be careful to not swing too far to other side.
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jyblazze
jyblazze@jyblazze·
@nathanjustbufc @AdamMancini4 Sometimes you wait for the pull back and get it, and sometimes you just have to get in like in this case right over 14.25 or 17 but the acceptance of 14 was good. I also waited for the pool back that never came
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Nathan
Nathan@nathanjustbufc·
@AdamMancini4 Curious to see your thoughts on this rally. Not seeing any FBD and IMHO no acceptance of 14 sans a 1m red bar. See misc headlines on Fi Juice but unable to really correlate any. Watched it, waited for pullback, never came. Trying to be disciplined and not chase - missed it :/
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Nathan
Nathan@nathanjustbufc·
@ES_Money_Print @bigwood340 @AdamMancini4 thanks for the reply. Yes I kind of was, and from the big drop below the open mark and below the close, saw it as a fresh low and we'd have to restart. In hindsight I can see what you're showing and that it was a continuation. I am making a note this will help me in the future
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Adam Mancini
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4·
This is peak low volatility summer trading in #ES_F and as warned all day, don't overtrade, just hold runners & let them pay. As posted here 8am/in newsletter, 6k-6020 was the range to setup 6029, 6040, 6050. We held 6k to the tick, and hit 6027.75 high of day Bulls must hold 6k
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4

Ultra low vol summer session in #ES_F, but lvls working. After Friday's macro breakout, plan today posted 8am was 6k-6020 would be the range. We held 6k exact, ran to 6020, then based. This setup 3 targets 6029 (here now), 6040, 6050. Protect gains, leave runner, do nothing

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Nathan
Nathan@nathanjustbufc·
@AdamMancini4 thank you for the reply. I thought since it had sold off so hard and quite a bit lower, past the close, that it had to basically start all over again. I see how it is type 1 now, and a continuation not a reset, of acceptance. 5p down in hindsight isn't so large. thx again
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Adam Mancini
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4·
@nathanjustbufc We had very extensive acceptance at 6014, we touched it at 620PM, sold down to 6008, then ripped through at 830AM. Perfect example of the first type of acceptance...deep and over sveral hours
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Nathan
Nathan@nathanjustbufc·
@bigwood340 @ES_Money_Print @AdamMancini4 not sure this is in the NL really. Unless you consider a 1m red bar at above 6014 acceptance for a reclaim of 14, as price blasted up :-D
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Nathan
Nathan@nathanjustbufc·
@AdamMancini4 So FB of daily low and 6000? Took that with 2c maybe ultimately little early, ended up moving one to BE :| and leaving a runner that got flushed. curious quality of this FB, given time of day, psychological level of 6k and depth of flush wonder if wasn't so great.
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Adam Mancini
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4·
After a 50 point squeeze from the 5975 reclaim long trigger (we spent all night accepting it) #ES_F getting its 1st dip. Today's targets were 5985, 6k (with 6014, 6029 bonus). Now, those same lvls are supports. Testing 6k now. Hold runner Bulls control above 5975. Sell below
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4

Huge leg up in #ES_F and easy work is done. As per newsletter/tweets 5948-51 recovery was long trigger last night (with 5975 recovery a second this morning). 5985, 6k were targets. Second batch were 6008, 6014, 6029. We saw 25 6k, 5985, 5975 now supports. Bulls control above 75

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Nathan
Nathan@nathanjustbufc·
@AdamMancini4 25 seems far away, 5910 almost seems like the magnet at the moment.
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Adam Mancini
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4·
Quick Failed Breakdown to start the day in #ES_F. As per yesterdays 4pm newsletter/8am tweet, 5877 was support, with Failed Breakdown of 5884 trigger. We sold to 5877 *exact*, recovered 84 rallied to 5910 1st target. Leave runner 5920-25 above, then 5936, 5945+. Sell<5877
Adam Mancini tweet media
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Nathan
Nathan@nathanjustbufc·
@AdamMancini4 strange day, digesting yesterdays post close move and no catalyst to drive vol today perhaps? though often there's no particular catalyst and it's a lot more volatile.
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Adam Mancini
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4·
Closing update #ES_F: Lots happened in 24hrs to go absolutely nowhere from yesterday at this time. We got the standard bear trap below yesterdays low, longs triggered, rallied to 5925 magnet. Hold lotto. 5936, 5945+ when ready. No sell until<5882. Newsletter out soon with entries
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Adam Mancini
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4·
5925 remains the magnet in #ES_F and action has slowed. I posted the failed breakdown yesterdays 5890 low OR 5910 would trigger to 5925. We got the trigger, ran to 5925, then dipped. Sit on runners. We start back up to 5936, 5945+ whenever 25 clears. Sell only <5882
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4

Precise technicals in #ES_F. I posted that the Failed Breakdown of yesterdays low OR 5910 would target 5925. We triggered both, ran to 5925. I warned 1hr ago to lock in gains there & we dipped. Protect profits now, low quality 5910=support. 25 must clear for next leg. Sell<5882

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