overjumped retweetet
۱- رئیس جمهور آمریکا در یک ساعت هفت ادعا مطرح کرد که هر هفت ادعا کذب است.
۲- با این دروغگوییها در جنگ پیروز نشدند و حتما در مذاکره هم راه به جایی نخواهند برد.
۳- با ادامهٔ محاصره، تنگهٔ هرمز باز نخواهد ماند.
فارسی
overjumped
942 posts
overjumped
@overjumped_
market musings, hot takes, misc.
Beigetreten Ağustos 2011
556 Folgt3.1K Follower
overjumped retweetet
@Osinttechnical @MarineTraffic im tellin y'all, today was OPEX expiry so Trump pumped it up with extra effort.... wait for the Axios article at 3:01 saying talks are falling apart....
English
Some US oil & gas plays trading at some juicy multiples, let's use $90/bbl oil, $3/mmbtu gas (HH), $30/bbl NGLs.
$TALO (offshore E&P) trades at a US$2.5b MC and ~US$3.4b EV.
* 87.5mboe/d (~32mmboe total) with ~75% oil mix
* ASP at above px's of ~$70/bbl... I've got opex of ~$23/boe and total costs of ~$50/boe
* EBITDA of ~$1.5b ($47/boe) & FCF of ~$0.6b ($20/boe)
* EV/EBITDA = ~2.3 & FCF yield of ~24%
$SM (onshore E&P) trades at a US$6.7b MC and ~US$14b EV
* 410mboe/d (~150mmboe total) with ~54% oil mix
* ASP at above px's of ~$58/bbl... opex of $16/boe and total costs of ~$38/boe
* EBITDA of ~$6.3b ($42/boe) & FCF of ~$3b ($20/boe)
* EV / EBITDA = ~2.2 & FCF yield of ~45% (debt magnifies this)
overjumped@overjumped_
Energy, ferts, chem stocks have basically round-tripped back to pre-war prices. I'm a doomer… but regardless of your stance on this war or your expectation around it's duration, prices for energy (and associated products) are significantly higher now than they were 6 weeks ago 🤷♂️ Add to this: * Lag in normalising infrastructure and unwinding logistics constraints * Re-stocking + potential to shift towards greater supply-chain resilience over 'just in time' (implying market tightness / higher price floors)
English
@Henrik115 By Qatar, you mean Ras Laffan..? In which case, the word 'once' is doing some heavy lifting here presuming you believe the slated 3-5yr timeframe for repair
English
Once Qatar is back, natgas will be low for long.
Javier Blas@JavierBlas
The future of LNG in Asia. Effectively, "fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me." After the oil price shock of 2022 and 2026, the region is going to re-consider LNG to the benefit of coal and solar + batteries. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
English
@SimeonBrownMP Nats being in charge and not having a solution seems more pressing..?
English
The GOOD news is that after two weeks of radio silence, Labour has finally remembered how to write a press release.
The BAD news is that neither contained a single policy or idea about what Labour would do differently. They have zero solutions to the issues they are moaning about.
These are wholly unserious people.
English
(1) Trade at a theoretical level enables a country to specialise... We specialise in dairy, India specialises in people.. neither needs what the other offers?
(2) Overlaying this, why have we made concessions for their primary export (people) whilst the category representing ~30% of our global exports are ostensibly excluded (dairy)?
English
@overjumped_ Seems plausible but we need details and refusal to provide them doesn’t bode well. Could end up being largely substance-free so not much difference on any front.
English
When the PM & trade minister bang on about the importance of the latest preferential trade etc agreement perhaps recall the dismal trend in NZ trade over decades.
I'm all in favour of free trade, but see no a priori reason to support deals they won't yet show us details of.
English
when i was a child and asked what superpower i wanted, it was grappling hook arms so i could grab onto the tops of buildings and stuff and pull myself up. close second was flying by thinking about it really hard but with goggles that would appear out of nowhere. i still wish that
English
@JohnDPMorgan Yeah I agree - but also on the spectrum of coincidence to non-coincidence, it slightly nudges a notch towards the latter..
x.com/overjumped_/st…
overjumped@overjumped_
@bart_chart This is a good point, some have been skimping on maintenance too
English
Or they’re just being overdriven. Every refinery not supplied by ME is being pushed to the limits of the operating envelope and beyond. Expect a few things to break.
overjumped@overjumped_
Terrible news... trying to keep my inner tin-foil hat in check, but double-digit incidents across various hydrocarbon refineries globally (ex-ME) since start of March seems beyond a statistical anomaly in this climate...
English
@ironic_capital Yeah.. I mean thus far they have successfully pumped the markets & the narrative (sometimes at the same time). I don't think I've ever seen a greater instance of 'price controls the narrative'
English
@overjumped_ I think everyone's in disbelief at current pricing.
S&P ATH with oil off the highs in the context of losing 10Mmbbl/d is strange...
English
Energy, ferts, chem stocks have basically round-tripped back to pre-war prices.
I'm a doomer… but regardless of your stance on this war or your expectation around it's duration, prices for energy (and associated products) are significantly higher now than they were 6 weeks ago 🤷♂️
Add to this:
* Lag in normalising infrastructure and unwinding logistics constraints
* Re-stocking + potential to shift towards greater supply-chain resilience over 'just in time' (implying market tightness / higher price floors)
English
@ironic_capital Classic.. it is interesting that most pundits discounted the possibility of a Hormuz closure (amongst other 'impossibles')... but then when reality becomes worse than expectation, it's still a 'sell the news' event..?
English
@overjumped_ Comp to end of 2025. All the return (so far) came in the run up.
English
@bart_chart This is a good point, some have been skimping on maintenance too
English
@overjumped_ Gotta consider that refineries are also doing an abnormal amount of work at the moment as well as shifting to different refining blends and oil inputs.
English
Terrible news... trying to keep my inner tin-foil hat in check, but double-digit incidents across various hydrocarbon refineries globally (ex-ME) since start of March seems beyond a statistical anomaly in this climate...
aussie17@_aussie17
BREAKING: Large fire at Viva Energy's Corio refinery in Geelong, Victoria Australia. Substantial flames visible, multiple fire trucks on scene. The refinery processes ~120,000 barrels/day — over 10% of Australia's daily fuel supply. Fire not yet under control.
English
@drsmithy @Jimmy____D Not talking last 12 months, talking last 6 weeks..
English
overjumped retweetet
JUST IN: Pentagon reportedly asks GM & Ford to begin producing weapons, reviving a WWII-era model.
English
$FBU.NZ / $FBU.ax update this morning provides some foreshadowing of what's to come 🙈
Leading integrated supplier of building materials across Australasia, and one of NZ's largest listed companies (and leading developer / construction co).
English
@LukeyTrags Obviously great to see coal back in vogue with instos, but I don't really understand the read-through here?
PLS has a lower credit rating and their debt issuance is unsecured over any assets, so it seems logical they're subject to higher rates / more onerous terms?
English
Ok so this is a cool comparison as $PLS.AX just refinanced their balance sheet also.. $WHC.AX's deal is more favourable on cost + tenor & is secured BBB rating vs $PLS.AX paying a premium (~0.6% more) for unsecured BB status.. COAL WINS #coaltwitter #lithium
Coal@LukeyTrags
New capital structure will feature a lower cost of debt (~6.3%) & longer tenor, reducing annual interest expense by ~A$50–55 million.. great stuff from our chief degen 🐐 $WHC.AX #coaltwitter
English
overjumped retweetet
India high clearing price for urea- $1136!
reuters.com/world/china/in…
English
For the kiwis out there, here's the NZ version:
> Consumed ~4.8 barrels per person, wedging us 4th on this list between USA/Canada (24.22m barrels diesel consumed in 2025)
> Low storage levels < 30 days & imports 100% of diesel
> Sits at the end of supply chains & not a 'major economy' (according to the chart/BB)
Respeculator@respeculator
> Highest diesel consumption per person globally (economy runs on it) > Low storage levels <30days even though IEA has been warning countries to lift storage >90days for a long time > imports >80% of diesel with only two refineries > one of those two refineries is currently on fire 🔥 🤡 🤡
English
