Peter Garnry

I want to create a pinned thread and give everyone an opportunity to ask questions here related to equities, trading, factor investing, thematic investing etc. and then I will try to answer as many questions as possible based on my experience in these subjects...

The dilemma is that if they let the FX rate go dictated by the market the response in the US and Europe will be steep tariffs that will more than offset the gains in exports from the weaker currency. A Gordian Knot…

Yesterday, I wrote about how AI is fundamentally transforming the software industry. The increase in CapEx has not been negative for valuations because the market has offset the effect by lifting growth expectations. But there is more to it... petergarnry.substack.com/p/ai-is-transf…

Grunden til at Kinesiske aktier ikke er investerbare skyldes tre ting. 1) det er meningsløst at tale om aktieinvesteringer i et land uden privat ejendomsret 2) geo politik. Tencent og CATL er lige tilføjet til US blacklist 3) dårlig forrentning af kapitalen

@dagensaktiedk @BodilGantzel Mange tak for perspektiveringen og de flotte ord Søren. Skal gøre mit til at holde niveauet højt 👍

Kæmpe sejr @BodilGantzel trækker hjem i dagens afsnit af millionærklubben med super indskiftningen af @petergarnry Afsnittet var så godt at jeg er nødt til at genhøre det i andre omgivelser end gåtur i lortevejet, hvor der bliver mulighed for at tage noter. Passede perfekt i formatet i dag, med masser af taletid og vanvittigt mange gode pointer så markant anderledes end resten af det storytelling der foregår derude. Det er det man har behov for. Nogle der rykker ved den forestilling man har, fremfor nogle der bare gentager samme historie som alle andre. Det er så tydeligt at hver gang der er en udspringer fra Saxo Bank, så er de datadrevne at det er en fornøjelse. For mig er det samme kvalitetstempel, som når jeg ser en ansøger der tidligere har arbejdet på McDonalds, da man så ved at de ikke er bange for at arbejde. Sørg for at hør afsnittet før din nabo. Glæder mig til næste besøg 🥳

@mikaelmilhoj @MagnusBarsoe Det var mega godt…2024 var et finurligt år. 2025 bliver mindst ligeså spændende. Godt nytår Mikael!

Jeg har talt om investeringsåret 2024 med @petergarnry og @MagnusBarsoe i Børsen Brænder. En fin blanding mellem regioner, temaer, økonomiske forskelle og politik. Lyt med f.eks. nedenfor radio4.dk/podcasts/boers… #dkøko

Despite having zero engagement or interest in crypto and also do not engagement in AI discussions outside those related to equity valuations, my feed is swarmed with hyperbolic comments and indirect advertisement of AI scams and crypto. Now on Bluesky... bsky.app/profile/peterg…

@mikeharrisNY I have that view for quite some time now, but it does not only relate to MicroStrategy, but many other segments of the market. Too many are risk blind these days...

👀The replies are the most frightening I've seen since the top of 2000.

@relativelyinte1 Cheers!

What could I do without the wisdom so rare? The insights and stories beyond compare But now there is hope, a beacon so bright With @petergarnry 's Substack, the future's in sight. In the world of investing, vibrant once more, With promise & knowledge, we rise and soar

Yesterday, I wrote about free cash flow, active investing, and why return of capital is not a value driver. Check it out. Next post is about how AI investments are impacting equity valuations for software companies. It is all about free cash flow open.substack.com/pub/petergarnr…

What game are you playing? This is an essential question everyone should ask themselves. You can play the game in financial markets in many different ways. My game is being a patient and free cash flow focused investor. I want to talk less about price and more about value.

Google, Meta, and Microsoft total employee figures are up 52.5%, 23.5% and 58.3% respectively since Q4 2019. Labor markets remain tight everywhere and technology companies are prioritizing CAPEX over OPEX right now because of gold rush in AI. The death of developers is wrong.

@mikaelmilhoj Ja kombinationen er ikke optimal. Vi skal have mere atomkraft i Europa men det kommer til at tage tid 😅 I en perfekt verden finder vi et gennembrud på energilagring til lave omkostninger som flader intradag priserne ud og måske også på ugebasis.

@petergarnry Ingen vind+ingen sol+lukke atomkraftværker+ingen gas fra Rusland Det er lidt grimt 😅 vi må nok vænne os til volatile strømpriser

Blev gjort opmærksom på det her af en kammerat. Håber I har husket at vaske tøj og lade jeres telefoner. #dkøko

@bjorn_agust I would not short quality tech but for sure tier 2/3 tech stocks are disconnected. Europe is a good hunting ground right now but you need to be selective…

@petergarnry The pendulum will swing back. Short US tech, long EU pharma/biotech perhaps..

A significant part of this spread widening, which is important to think deeper about for any investor, is due to widening sector weight differentials. The more interesting thing is to compare industries and see whether valuation spreads are still large for identical assets.

Quality independent research from a skilled, out-of-the-box thinker and respected former colleague.

@Ole_S_Hansen Thanks for the shout out Ole 🙏

In a paper published today in Nature, researchers at Google Quantum AI crossed a significant threshold in quantum error correction, moving quantum computers one step closer to practical applications. @benbenbrubaker reports: quantamagazine.org/quantum-comput…

@JacekCzerniaws2 I have similar thoughts. I still struggle to see the big leap yet relative to the billions invested. I will soon write about what genAI is doing to the software industry from an investment perspective ;-)

@petergarnry Which brings to conclusion where are the miracles of AI 😉with billion of dollars invested in AI, the real efficiency improvement doesn't exceed low single % number IMHO. Reminds me .com bubble where investors followed "internet" word.

Funny experience with AI and writing style. I write some text and asks for its opinion on the style etc. It comes back with authenticity, personal style, inviting, but recommends sentence variety and more conciseness. I then prompt it to improve conciseness.