puffin
559 posts

puffin
@puffinancial
buyside tech but i discuss whatever tf i want. best golf score: 84 (twice). this sht ain’t nothing to me man. radius/spybar front right. only ideas not advice
Chicago, IL Beigetreten Haziran 2022
984 Folgt603 Follower

Intel at @NVIDIAGTC? Yep!
This is just the next step in our partnership as we combine strengths to unlock new innovations, efficiencies, and opportunities for partners building AI at scale.
ms.spr.ly/6014QmKr6

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@mansourtarek_ @Kalshi I know many of you Kalshi folk follow me and this is fucking ridiculous. How exactly did you guys expect this “removed as Supreme Leader” to work. It’s been 35years. Payout per your terms
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On Khamenei:
We don’t list markets directly tied to death. When there are markets where potential outcomes involve death, we design the rules to prevent people from profiting from death. That is what we did here.
I know some of you disagree and prefer that we list these markets without a death carveout because it keeps the rules simple and because many traditional markets, like oil futures, can be proxy markets for war and death. But we believe that’s different than having a market directly settling on someone’s death, which is not allowed for US regulated entities.
What’s the point of the market, then?
A market on Ali Khamenei out as Supreme Leader was important because leadership changes in Iran have major impact on the world order:
• geopolitical implications
• economic consequences
• national security considerations
• oil and commodity prices, many of which move based on news and expectations around this outcome
And it’s always possible for a ruler to step down or transition power without death, even in autocracies. It just happened in Venezuela.
In these instances, we make the caveat clear in the rules and in the market page, but today is a good learning that we can do more in terms of improving the UX and adding more ways to surface the rules. We are committed to improving. In the meantime, here’s what we’re going to do:
• We are reimbursing all fees from this market
• If you have a position from before Khamenei died, you will be paid out on the last-traded price before his death. (This was clear in our rules)
• If you have a position from after he died, we’re going to fully reimburse your cost of entry
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puffin retweetet

@PaperGainsInc for reference
ref $197.5
IV -30% after
sell 2/27 195/200 strangle
buy either 3/2 or 3/6 195 strangle
the 3/6 return is far worse as on 2/27 most of value is still in the vol of 3/6
Hopefully this makes sense for you and you make more money


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@PaperGainsInc you are just buying 3/2-3/6 vol here at 56, not selling earnings vol or 100 IV
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Buying $NVDA calls before earnings.
At 100% IV?
Yeah right 🤣
You pay the crush to me.
Selling 2/27 at 100% IV. Buying 3/9 at 56% IV.
I don’t care what happens. NVDA can hit low $180’s or $215+ and I still double my money.
Average earnings move? $15. Last time it moved more than $15? 2024.
$200 calls are ~$5. You need $10 just to break even. A penny less and you’re hosed 💀
Keep guessing.
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i actually don’t think you nearly ever make money here based on the earnings T+1 since all you own is 3/2-3/6 IV. if it duds that IV is down but you still own 7 days against the 2 days you are selling (+1/-1 earnings event). so if the event duds you lose to the elevated bw IV collapsing ~ the same as you win to fw collapse
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OpenAI did not make $13bn in 2025. Per reported figures, they made $4.3bn in 1H, $12bn ARR July ($1bn), $13bn ARR august ($1.083bn), $19bn ARR Nov ($1.583bn) and $20bn ARR Dec ($1.66bn), even if september was $15.9bn ARR and Oct $19bn it doesn't make sense (equals $12.54bn)

CNBC Tech@CNBCtech
OpenAI resets spending expectations, tells investors compute target is around $600 billion by 2030 cnbc.com/2026/02/20/ope…
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