qm
3.5K posts
qm
@quantymacro
self taught hedge fund quantitative macro tradooor
Beigetreten Mart 2023
347 Folgt33.1K Follower
level 1 thinking: commoditized ends (money, etc) will make me happy
level 2 thinking: bounded commoditized ends (when I have this much, when I get into this firm, ...) will make me happy
level 3 thinking: i understand that no real endpoint will tangibly change my sense of self, the true happiness is in looking inwards and refusing to play these commoditized games
level 4 thinking: happiness is a mixture of peace and contentedness - i see that through the pursuit of commoditized and competitive landscapes, i will be able to experience myself in ways impossible through pure joymaxxing and uncatalyzed introspection, the end is the way
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@macrocephalopod @investingidiocy @Alexrios22 tfw you realise some discretionary trading is just trend following with extra steps
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@investingidiocy @Alexrios22 His example of something that systematic models would get wrong was not buying the recent rally in gold/silver (???) but at least he has the wits to say “unless they are trend following” — ie unless they use literally the most famous and well-known systematic model?
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This is such a weird criticism of systematic that I somehow see all the time —
“Algorithmic trading models only look at history”
ok and discretionary traders can … see into the future … somehow?
Ethan Kho@ethanrkho
An Ex-Goldman MD who traded nat gas for 12 years thinks systematic trading models can have fatal flaws when applied to commodities. "If you had this strategy running in 2015, there would not be a possibility of the gold market trading 4,000." - let alone 5000 The model has no data for what's never happened. "What you've seen in the last eight weeks — prices going vertical — that is not found in the history of the gold market anywhere." So the algo fades it. In week two. In week three. "I think humans matter." Every quant who thinks they've solved regime detection needs to answer this.
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@quantymacro A macro trader is secretary of the treasury while you complain on X btw
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this is the average IQ level of a macro trader btw
Harsh Goenka@hvgoenka
Can this be a solution?
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@GryptoGoon alpha decay is when you lose money. regime change is when I lose money
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me: if the war goes on we might lose money
gf: why don’t you just stop trading for a while?
me: it’s hard to figure out when to turn strats off/on
gf: but Trump said war won’t stop soon
me: yeah but we follow a process
gf: see this is the problem you never listen to anyone
????
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@quantymacro Hedge with what? If I was going to hedge with perps, I might as well just sell my liquid stake.
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$LIT: Dimmest Before the Dawn?
Full disclosure: I'm a private investor in Lighter and continue to hold and stake 100% of my $LIT airdrop. Take everything below with that in mind.
Below is my attempt at an honest audit of what I think went wrong and what's quietly working.
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@gemchange_ltd don’t sell yourself short. anyone can become a quant. pretty sure there are plenty of articles online on “how to be a quant” that are definitely valuable and not complete slop
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yea, lol, bcs quant's are much more cracked than PE Analysts/Associates (me)
I just wrote this article bcs i love math finance, had a beautiful professor at uni who helped me with that and i'm still trying to educate
haven't ever in my life called myself quant bcs those ppl are different breed
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@macrocephalopod @ScottPh77711570 it's not a lie. my wife and I just verified it last night with a 20+ factor model
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I listened to the relevant bit, this guy is claiming 2% return per month using 10x leverage by being long a currency pair at one broker, short the same pair at another broker. So either
(A) He’s identified literally the most stupid counterparties in the know galaxy
(B) He’s lying about the returns
(C) This is a Ponzi scheme
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I just don't get what the loose pants trend guys talk about, week after week
Its not like they have the capability of building more sophisticated systems anyway
If you want trend but dont have infra you are stuck with loose pants
Aussie Turtles@AussieTurtlesAU
🐢 Turtle Talk Podcast — Episode 011: FX Arbitrage, Regime Change, and the Return of Classic Trend Episode 011 is live. Rich Brennan, Jerry Parker, and Adam Havryliv are joined by Sanjeev Lakhanpal of Horizon3 Investment Management for a conversation covering January's rare unanimity across all seven trend benchmarks, the vol-weighting vs loose pants debate, Horizon3's market-neutral FX swap arbitrage program, and why three decades of regime change point to a return of the classic CTA environment. 🎧 Watch or listen here: aussieturtles.com/episode-011-st… #TrendFollowing #SystematicTrading #FXArbitrage #OutlierHunting
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people will say its expensive, but the M&S snacks are levels above other supermarket
ysl obama 🇳🇬🇸🇴@LSYeirbag
This was £6.10 in total. Mamdani’s London btw
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@FBChaiTrading if the market crashes but everyone is having lunch outside did the market really crash?
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@macrocephalopod I told my (then) wife to put 100% of our savings in LUNA. just waiting to break even any moment now
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In fairness my wife went nuts when I told her I'd put 10% of our savings into a crypto exchange to make a bet that was *significantly* better than this one, so I may have a different level of downside tolerance.
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Would I wager my life savings on a bet with a bunch of weird downside risks (including Kalshi credit risk!!) for a 37% return over 18 months? Absolutely not lmao.
Richard Rubin@RichardRubinDC
I’ve got a fun one this morning. If you saw what you thought was a surefire money-making opportunity to go all-in, would you? Here’s what @AlanMCole did:
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@TheShortBear before you post anything next time pls verify it through a 20+ factor model for the sake of the people
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It really is that simple.
If you are a market maker, you should not be allowed to run directional bets.
You cannot profit from the privileged position of providing liquidity, earning billions from order flow and spread, and then turn around and trade against the very clients who have no alternative venue.
When clients are effectively captive, the playing field must be level.
Liquidity provision and proprietary directional trading should not sit under the same roof.
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