
Rupert Bolingbroke
1.7K posts

Rupert Bolingbroke
@ramsbobby40
Bookie. Ex-HKer. VTID. Bang average golfer. Red Sox fan. New Cards fan.




In August, President Trump signed an executive order titled "Democratizing Access to Alternative Assets for 401(k) Investors." The order directs regulators to make it easier for your retirement savings to flow into private credit, private equity, and other "alternative" assets. The Department of Labor quickly rescinded Biden-era guidance that had discouraged these investments in retirement plans. Apollo. Blackstone. Goldman Sachs. State Street. They're all racing to launch private credit products for your 401(k). But here's the problem: Private credit is showing cracks at the exact moment they want to open it up to retail investors. Just this week, BlackRock TCP Capital - one of the largest publicly traded private credit funds - plunged 17% after disclosing a 19% writedown on its net asset value. The biggest drop in almost six years. This is BlackRock. The world's largest asset manager. $14T in assets. If they're taking hits like this, what chance does your 401k have? Let me walk you through what's actually happening in this market... Private credit has ballooned to over $2T in assets. For years, it was the domain of sophisticated institutional investors - pension funds, endowments, insurance companies. These investors have teams of analysts, lawyers, and risk managers to evaluate complex deals. Your average 401k participant doesn't have any of that. And the timing couldn't be worse. The IMF's 2025 Financial Stability Report found that 40% of private credit borrowers now have NEGATIVE free cash flow. That's up from 25% in 2021. Goldman Sachs data shows 15% of borrowers can no longer generate enough cash to fully cover their interest payments. UBS forecasts that private credit defaults could climb by 3 percentage points in 2026 - outpacing leveraged loans and high-yield bonds. Meanwhile, payment-in-kind loans - where struggling borrowers defer interest by adding it to their debt balance - have surged from 7.4% in 2021 to over 11% today. When a company can't pay interest in cash, that's not a sign of health. It's a sign of stress being disguised. Then came September's wake-up call: Auto parts maker First Brands collapsed with $8B in off-balance-sheet financing that wasn't properly disclosed to lenders. Subprime auto lender Tricolor imploded amid allegations it pledged the same loans as collateral to multiple creditors. Both received clean audits shortly before they cratered. First Brands' term loans went from 90 cents on the dollar to under 15 cents in weeks. JPMorgan's Jamie Dimon put it bluntly: "When you see one cockroach, there are probably more." Here's what makes this dangerous: Private credit is lightly regulated, less transparent, and difficult to value accurately. The managers making the loans are often the same ones valuing them. They have every incentive to delay recognizing problems. The DOJ has already issued warnings about "creative" marks and questionable valuation practices. Banks aren't insulated either. They've lent over $2.2T to non-bank financial institutions. When problems surface in private credit, banks feel it too. And now they want to put this in YOUR retirement account. The pitch is that private credit offers "higher returns" and "diversification." But the data doesn't support the sales pitch: Recent research shows pension funds increasing exposure to private markets have actually seen depressed returns compared to simple stock and bond portfolios. The 50 largest US pension funds averaged just 7.4% returns over the past decade. A basic 60/40 portfolio beat many of them. The real beneficiaries are fund managers charging 2% fees on assets that can't be easily valued or sold. My view really hasn't changed: AVOID PRIVATE CREDIT When sophisticated institutional investors start pulling back - and they are - the last thing you want to do is rush in. Stay in liquid, transparent, low-cost investments for your retirement. Don't be the exit liquidity.



Jim Ratcliffe abandoned workers in Grangemouth and fled to Monaco to avoid paying taxes in the UK. His hypocrisy knows no bounds. Another super-rich man blaming immigrants for the problems caused by billionaires.

There are now more Indians (3 million) than native Welshmen in Britain (~2 million). There were 1.9 million Indians at the 2021 UK census, at least 993,000 more arrived between 2021 and 2025. Indians are the 3rd largest ethnic group in Britain, behind only the Scots & English.



🚨Simon Jordan RIPS Eni Aluko to shreds in front of her - No commercial sense - Believes everything is structural racism - Not Enlightening - Not Illuminating - Not Engaging - Not Chrismatic - Not Likable So he's met her then

Update: he was an insider and won all of his bets lol polymarket.com/profile/0x40d9…

🏈 Super Bowl Winners by Country Since 2000 2000 – 🇺🇸 United States 2001 – 🇺🇸 United States 2002 – 🇺🇸 United States 2003 – 🇺🇸 United States 2004 – 🇺🇸 United States 2005 – 🇺🇸 United States 2006 – 🇺🇸 United States 2007 – 🇺🇸 United States 2008 – 🇺🇸 United States 2009 – 🇺🇸 United States 2010 – 🇺🇸 United States 2011 – 🇺🇸 United States 2012 – 🇺🇸 United States 2013 – 🇺🇸 United States 2014 – 🇺🇸 United States 2015 – 🇺🇸 United States 2016 – 🇺🇸 United States 2017 – 🇺🇸 United States 2018 – 🇺🇸 United States 2019 – 🇺🇸 United States 2020 – 🇺🇸 United States 2021 – 🇺🇸 United States 2022 – 🇺🇸 United States 2023 – 🇺🇸 United States 2024 – 🇺🇸 United States 2025 – 🇺🇸 United States




Yorkshire Water and Northumbrian Water have nearly 200 criminal convictions between them. On 6 August 2024, Ofwat fined them £47m and £17m for sewage dumping. Fines not paid, will not be paid. Firms claim to have invested. No penalty for abusing laws leftfootforward.org/2026/01/public…




