Rupert Bolingbroke

1.7K posts

Rupert Bolingbroke banner
Rupert Bolingbroke

Rupert Bolingbroke

@ramsbobby40

Bookie. Ex-HKer. VTID. Bang average golfer. Red Sox fan. New Cards fan.

London Beigetreten Mart 2011
215 Folgt168 Follower
Rupert Bolingbroke retweetet
Ed Conway
Ed Conway@EdConwaySky·
📽️ From Donald Trump to Britain's wind power trade body, there's a growing coalition calling for more drilling in the North Sea. Raising the question: if we DID encourage more exploration, how much oil & gas could we actually get? Our MEGA primer on the North Sea👇 Ps it's longer than usual, but it turns out this topic has SO MANY misconceptions. Time to put some of them right. Let me know what you think
English
218
641
3K
815.8K
Rupert Bolingbroke
Rupert Bolingbroke@ramsbobby40·
1987 cricket World Cup final (50 overs) Australia score 253, Boon 75 off 125 England in reply manage 246 with the tail running out of steam after Tim Robinson (who he?) first ball duck 2026 T20 WC final India score 253, Samson (having not had his hair cut) 89 off 42 England in reply manage 246 running out of steam in the “death overs”
English
0
0
1
42
Rupert Bolingbroke retweetet
Oliver Kahn
Oliver Kahn@OliverKahn·
Exactly 25 years ago today, I scored my first — and only — professional goal. Contrary to what I believed at the time, goalkeepers are not allowed to handle the ball in both penalty areas. The goal was disallowed and I was sent off — still it earned me legendary status. 😉 #otd
English
2.4K
8.8K
91.3K
3.7M
Rupert Bolingbroke retweetet
Chuck L
Chuck L@TXHockeyRef·
Chuck L tweet media
QME
5
15
750
69.6K
Rupert Bolingbroke retweetet
George Noble
George Noble@gnoble79·
Remember this scene in The Big Short? Jamie Shipley and Charlie Geller have bet everything against the housing market. They've been bleeding for months, wondering if they're wrong. Then they flip on CNN and see it: New Century Financial - the second-largest subprime lender in America - has filed for bankruptcy. "It's starting." That was April 2, 2007. New Century wasn't the crisis. It was 1% of the problem. But it was the first domino. 4 months later, BNP Paribas froze 3 funds citing "complete evaporation of liquidity." 18 months after that, Lehman was dead. I'd encourage you to watch that scene today. Because we JUST got our New Century moment in private credit: Blue Owl Capital - $307 billion in assets under management - just permanently halted investor redemptions at its retail private credit fund, OBDC II. Investors will NEVER AGAIN redeem shares from this fund. On January 25th, I wrote that private credit was showing cracks at the exact moment Wall Street wanted to open it up to your 401(k). 3 weeks later, here we are. The timeline follows a pattern anyone who's been around markets long enough recognizes: Through the first 9 months of 2025, OBDC II investors withdrew $150 million - up 20% year over year. Meanwhile, Blue Owl execs publicly assured investors there was "no meaningful pressure" on their asset base. But there was. And they're now facing a federal class-action lawsuit for saying otherwise. In November, they attempted a merger that would have forced OBDC II investors into a publicly traded fund trading at a 20% discount to NAV. Effectively confiscating a fifth of their capital. Blue Owl's own CFO conceded investors "could take a potential haircut." The stock dropped 11% in 8 days. They killed the deal. Now they've abandoned the pretense entirely. PERMANENT halt. Fire-selling $1.4 billion in loans across three funds. Investors get roughly 30% of NAV back through quarterly distributions - on Blue Owl's schedule, not theirs. One delightful detail: Blue Owl's co-CEOs have pledged $1.9 billion of their OWN company shares as collateral for personal loans - proceeds used, in part, to acquire the Tampa Bay Lightning. The stock is down 33% this year. That collateral has literally shed $260 million since January. Founders leveraging company stock for hockey teams while retail investors queue up for their own money. Wall Street's version of noblesse oblige. But here's what matters: This isn't about Blue Owl. Blue Owl is a symptom. The disease is a $3.4 TRILLION private credit industry built on opacity, conflicts of interest, and the polite fiction that illiquid assets can offer liquid redemptions. Morningstar DBRS reports the trailing default rate has risen to 4%, up from 2.8% a year ago. Downgrades outpacing upgrades. Outlook negative. UBS warns defaults could reach 13% if AI disrupts the software companies making up 17% of BDC loan portfolios. Payment-in-kind loans (where borrowers can't pay cash interest and simply pile it onto the debt) have surged past 11% of BDC income. When your borrowers are paying you with IOUs, the word "income" deserves quotation marks. And the government's response? Open YOUR 401(k) to private credit. Trump's executive order directed regulators to do exactly that. They want to "democratize" an asset class whose flagship retail product just permanently locked investors out. The KKRs. The Blackstones. The Apollos. Everyone loaded up on private credit is exposed. When the tide goes out, you find out who's swimming naked. In April 2007, New Century went bankrupt. Most of the financial world shrugged. 17 months later, Lehman made the point impossible to ignore. And Blue Owl permanently halted redemptions TODAY. AVOID PRIVATE CREDIT AVOID PRIVATE EQUITY Because it's starting...
George Noble@gnoble79

In August, President Trump signed an executive order titled "Democratizing Access to Alternative Assets for 401(k) Investors." The order directs regulators to make it easier for your retirement savings to flow into private credit, private equity, and other "alternative" assets. The Department of Labor quickly rescinded Biden-era guidance that had discouraged these investments in retirement plans. Apollo. Blackstone. Goldman Sachs. State Street. They're all racing to launch private credit products for your 401(k). But here's the problem: Private credit is showing cracks at the exact moment they want to open it up to retail investors. Just this week, BlackRock TCP Capital - one of the largest publicly traded private credit funds - plunged 17% after disclosing a 19% writedown on its net asset value. The biggest drop in almost six years. This is BlackRock. The world's largest asset manager. $14T in assets. If they're taking hits like this, what chance does your 401k have? Let me walk you through what's actually happening in this market... Private credit has ballooned to over $2T in assets. For years, it was the domain of sophisticated institutional investors - pension funds, endowments, insurance companies. These investors have teams of analysts, lawyers, and risk managers to evaluate complex deals. Your average 401k participant doesn't have any of that. And the timing couldn't be worse. The IMF's 2025 Financial Stability Report found that 40% of private credit borrowers now have NEGATIVE free cash flow. That's up from 25% in 2021. Goldman Sachs data shows 15% of borrowers can no longer generate enough cash to fully cover their interest payments. UBS forecasts that private credit defaults could climb by 3 percentage points in 2026 - outpacing leveraged loans and high-yield bonds. Meanwhile, payment-in-kind loans - where struggling borrowers defer interest by adding it to their debt balance - have surged from 7.4% in 2021 to over 11% today. When a company can't pay interest in cash, that's not a sign of health. It's a sign of stress being disguised. Then came September's wake-up call: Auto parts maker First Brands collapsed with $8B in off-balance-sheet financing that wasn't properly disclosed to lenders. Subprime auto lender Tricolor imploded amid allegations it pledged the same loans as collateral to multiple creditors. Both received clean audits shortly before they cratered. First Brands' term loans went from 90 cents on the dollar to under 15 cents in weeks. JPMorgan's Jamie Dimon put it bluntly: "When you see one cockroach, there are probably more." Here's what makes this dangerous: Private credit is lightly regulated, less transparent, and difficult to value accurately. The managers making the loans are often the same ones valuing them. They have every incentive to delay recognizing problems. The DOJ has already issued warnings about "creative" marks and questionable valuation practices. Banks aren't insulated either. They've lent over $2.2T to non-bank financial institutions. When problems surface in private credit, banks feel it too. And now they want to put this in YOUR retirement account. The pitch is that private credit offers "higher returns" and "diversification." But the data doesn't support the sales pitch: Recent research shows pension funds increasing exposure to private markets have actually seen depressed returns compared to simple stock and bond portfolios. The 50 largest US pension funds averaged just 7.4% returns over the past decade. A basic 60/40 portfolio beat many of them. The real beneficiaries are fund managers charging 2% fees on assets that can't be easily valued or sold. My view really hasn't changed: AVOID PRIVATE CREDIT When sophisticated institutional investors start pulling back - and they are - the last thing you want to do is rush in. Stay in liquid, transparent, low-cost investments for your retirement. Don't be the exit liquidity.

English
214
905
4.4K
1.5M
Rupert Bolingbroke retweetet
CBS Sports Golazo ⚽️
CBS Sports Golazo ⚽️@CBSSportsGolazo·
Kate Scott's powerful statement on racism in football ❤️
English
457
6.4K
24.2K
971.9K
Rupert Bolingbroke
Rupert Bolingbroke@ramsbobby40·
Maybe we should have a re-think about Wales’s place in the 6 Nations? England Scotland France Ireland Italy and India? Decent Italy and Scotland would be in favour to avoid wooden spoons!
White Papers Policy Institute@WhitePapersPol

There are now more Indians (3 million) than native Welshmen in Britain (~2 million). There were 1.9 million Indians at the 2021 UK census, at least 993,000 more arrived between 2021 and 2025. Indians are the 3rd largest ethnic group in Britain, behind only the Scots & English.

English
0
0
0
126
Rupert Bolingbroke retweetet
Eric Daugherty
Eric Daugherty@EricLDaugh·
🚨 WOW. Rep. Brandon Gill just carried out a STUNNING TAKEDOWN of the Biden-Harris DOJ in front of every Democrat in the room "Is it true that the Biden-Harris DOJ raided President Trump’s home?” BONDI: “They did.” “Did the Biden-Harris DOJ allow Jack Smith to spy on over a DOZEN Republican members of congress?” BONDI: “Absolutely.” “Did the Biden-Harris DOJ SEIZE the phone of a sitting sitting Republican Congressman?” BONDI: “Yes.” “Did the Biden-Harris DOJ and Jack Smith pay at least $20,000 to confidential human sources to provide information on President Trump?” BONDI: “At least.” “Did the Biden-Harris DOJ and FBI fail to apprehend the suspect who placed pipe bombs near the Capitol ahead of Jan. 6?” BONDI: “Yes.” “Did the Biden-Harris DOJ target parents as domestic terrorists?” BONDI: “Absolutely.” “Did the Biden-Harris DOJ target pro-life Catholics, going so far as to interview a priest and a choir director?” BONDI: “Yes.” "Did the Biden-Harris DOJ send FBI SWAT teams to arrest pro-life advocates with no criminal histories?" BONDI: "Yes." "Did the Biden-Harris DOJ use the FACE Act to target pro-life advocates while it allowed anti-life agitators to vandalize, destroy, and firebomb pregnancy resource centers and churches?" BONDI: "Multiple times." "Did the Biden-Harris DOJ seek leniency from a federal court for an IRS contractor who leaked sensitive tax information on over 7,600 Americans, including President Trump?" BONDI: "Yes."
English
522
7.8K
23.6K
585.5K
Rupert Bolingbroke retweetet
Maxime Bernier
Maxime Bernier@MaximeBernier·
The horrific shooting in Tumbler Ridge, British Columbia is a real tragedy: nine innocent lives were lost, including those of children, and 25 others were injured in one of the deadliest attacks in our history.  But let’s speak the truth that the establishment media refuses to acknowledge: the shooter was a trans-identified male, falsely described as female. He was lost in a delusion fuelled by a radical ideology that contradicts basic biological realities. How many more must die before we end this toxic ideology? Trans ideology isn’t liberation. It’s a path to psychosis and affirming it prevents real help from reaching those who need it most. Look at the pattern unfolding across the West: Aberdeen, Club Q, Highlands Ranch, Annunciation Catholic School, Covenant School, and now Tumbler Ridge. This is an epidemic of trans-identified violence, and it won’t stop until we change course. Liberals, fake Conservatives and every member of Parliament have voted unanimously for bill C-4 in 2021, which criminalizes parents and therapists who try to help minors with gender dysphoria accept who they are. It’s illegal to treat children for a mental disorder, but it’s legal to encourage them to undergo “gender affirming therapy” and mutilate their body with harmful drugs or surgeries. We've let a cult take over our society, where even police cannot call a man a man. Our children are paying the ultimate price for this cowardice. Our position on transgender ideology is clear and unwavering: We must modify the Criminal Code to outlaw the use of puberty blockers, cross-sex hormones, and any form of bodily mutilation on minors with the goal of “transitioning” to another sex. Moreover, any person encouraging minors to “transition” shall be held criminally responsible for attempting to cause harm. We must also remove the ban imposed by Bill C-4 on helping minors who suffer from gender dysphoria accept their bodies. If a child expresses confusion about their gender, we need to show real compassion and tell them they are perfect as they are, no need to change names, bodies, or lives to be loved. Affirming delusions is neglect, not care.  My thoughts are for the victims, their families, and the Tumbler Ridge community. May this senseless tragedy spark a return to common sense. Let’s make Canada safe again, by facing the truth.
English
293
1.3K
6.6K
229.4K
Rupert Bolingbroke retweetet
The xG Philosophy
The xG Philosophy@xGPhilosophy·
Simon Jordan (2.95) 1-0 (0.07) Eni Aluko
Suomi
67
730
14.8K
545.3K
Rupert Bolingbroke retweetet
Luke Paton
Luke Paton@Golfpunter1·
Watching from afar this stuff is just wild. I have long held the belief that the prediction markets (lol even describing it as that) won't take off in the way people are expecting. Longer term that is. This market gives a glimpse into why. At Betfair we had the choice to offer pretty much any market we wanted. However, there were some basic provisos. 1. It couldn't generate questionable PR. 2. It couldn't be in poor taste. 3. We had to be able to offer the mkt and be able to settle the mkt in a way that was fair to both sides of the trade. Our market rules had to be watertight. There could be nothing ambiguous. Settlement sources had to be clear. 4. We wanted markets that people would want to bet on, users would provide liquidity in and that would attract other users etc. I.e. a functioning liquid market with parties on both sides of the bet. 5. We did not want markets where the outcome would be subject to inside information, within reason. What we see from Polymarket and Kalshi is interesting; 1. They crave the publicity of mkts that generate questionable PR. They adopt the notion that there is no such thing as bad PR. 2. They have had markets that involve things like wars. Markets involving foreign leaders like Venezuela. See number 1. No shame. Where do they draw the line? Betting on the death of someone? Any morals within the company? Public perception can change in a heartbeat. 3. They are getting themselves into a constant pickle with regards to how to offer some of these markets. They don't seem to care. It seems like they have no one to answer to. Just look at the farce with Cardi B this weekend. If it does cost them some money they aren't bothered. 4. We will come back to this point in a moment. 5. Who cares clearly. Points number 4 and 5 are interesting in the context of the original tweet. What is really clear is that huge numbers of markets are being offered where inside information is rampant. In a normal functioning exchange market very quickly they will cease to exist. The market makers/layers just say ********* to this. I am not just going to keep getting picked off like this. They also say I am not going to keep offering liquidity in markets that you clearly don't know how to or are able to run properly. I don't want to be guessing as to how they will settle a market. The difference with Polymarket and Kalshi is that these aren't normal exchange markets. They are markets underwritten by large liquidity providers. I have long held the belief that the following is happening. They are happy to take short term pain in order to get long term benefits. A loss leader as such. Quite normal behaviour in plenty of industries. These liquidity providers have clearly said we don't mind taking a hit in the shorter term. Look at the bigger picture. I have no idea on the numbers but that in itself isn't important. It is more the concept. Let's say our liquidity providers are happy to lose £100m on these markets. That's clearly on the high side. However, Polymarket has seen the valuation of the company go from a valuation of $1.2bn in Jan 2025 to the current valuations of more than $12bn. That money spent to get that liquidity and PR is just a drop in the ocean relatively. Speed is of the essence. Customer numbers huge. When you see markets operated without time delays you know the same is happening. These markets are just smoke and mirrors. I love the naivety of some of the investors in these products. Once the liquidity providers say enough is enough. Two things happen. One the markets collapse because they have no liquidity. Or two you take the players making the big money on the other side either out of the game or you monetise them differently. Think things like Premium charges/Expert fees/restrictions/commission rates. People simply won't keep playing in markets where there is so much asymmetric information. Unless of course they are incentivised to do so. Short term great. Long term hmm. Call me a sceptic.
haeju.eth@JeongHaeju

Update: he was an insider and won all of his bets lol polymarket.com/profile/0x40d9…

English
41
68
937
438.3K
Rupert Bolingbroke retweetet
M
M@MRIRBT·
Copa Del Rey winners by country since 1903 🇪🇸🇪🇸🇪🇸🇪🇸🇪🇸🇪🇸🇪🇸🇪🇸🇪🇸🇪🇸🇪🇸🇪🇸🇪🇸🇪🇸🇪🇸🇪🇸🇪🇸🇪🇸🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿🇪🇸🇪🇸🇪🇸🇪🇸🇪🇸🇪🇸🇪🇸🇪🇸🇪🇸🇪🇸🇪🇸🇪🇸🇪🇸🇪🇸🇪🇸🇪🇸🇪🇸🇪🇸🇪🇸🇪🇸🇪🇸🇪🇸🇪🇸🇪🇸🇪🇸🇪🇸🇪🇸🇪🇸🇪🇸🇪🇸🇪🇸🇪🇸🇪🇸🇪🇸🇪🇸🇪🇸🇪🇸🇪🇸🇪🇸🇪🇸🇪🇸🇪🇸🇪🇸🇪🇸🇪🇸🇪🇸🇪🇸🇪🇸🇪🇸🇪🇸🇪🇸🇪🇸🇪🇸🇪🇸🇪🇸🇪🇸🇪🇸🇪🇸🇪🇸🇪🇸🇪🇸🇪🇸🇪🇸🇪🇸🇪🇸🇪🇸🇪🇸🇪🇸🇪🇸🇪🇸🇪🇸🇪🇸🇪🇸🇪🇸🇪🇸🇪🇸🇪🇸🇪🇸🇪🇸🇪🇸🇪🇸🇪🇸🇪🇸🇪🇸🇪🇸🇪🇸🇪🇸🇪🇸🇪🇸🇪🇸🇪🇸🇪🇸🇪🇸🇪🇸🇪🇸🇪🇸🇪🇸🇪🇸🇪🇸
World of Statistics@stats_feed

🏈 Super Bowl Winners by Country Since 2000 2000 – 🇺🇸 United States 
2001 – 🇺🇸 United States 
2002 – 🇺🇸 United States 
2003 – 🇺🇸 United States 
2004 – 🇺🇸 United States 
2005 – 🇺🇸 United States 
2006 – 🇺🇸 United States 
2007 – 🇺🇸 United States 
2008 – 🇺🇸 United States 
2009 – 🇺🇸 United States
2010 – 🇺🇸 United States 
2011 – 🇺🇸 United States 
2012 – 🇺🇸 United States 
2013 – 🇺🇸 United States 
2014 – 🇺🇸 United States
2015 – 🇺🇸 United States 
2016 – 🇺🇸 United States 
2017 – 🇺🇸 United States 
2018 – 🇺🇸 United States 
2019 – 🇺🇸 United States 
2020 – 🇺🇸 United States 
2021 – 🇺🇸 United States 
2022 – 🇺🇸 United States 
2023 – 🇺🇸 United States 
2024 – 🇺🇸 United States 
2025 – 🇺🇸 United States

English
184
1.4K
76.1K
6.7M
Rupert Bolingbroke
Rupert Bolingbroke@ramsbobby40·
BTC situation getting really fucking interesting now. Daily crashes, all fairly substantial. Major financial market instruments exist which did not before, can probably easily outweigh the fintech diehards. Add in that Saylor/Strategy holdings now worth MINUS $5.4 Billion. Is someone trying to ruin him like Soros did to the pound back in the day?
English
0
0
0
46
Rupert Bolingbroke retweetet
Feargal Sharkey
Feargal Sharkey@Feargal_Sharkey·
You'll want to be sitting down for this bit. Water companies are currently £82.7 billion in debt, have paid themselves £85 billion in dividends, leak over a trillion of litres of water per year, dump sewage for almost 4 million hours per year, have been convicted of over 1,200 criminal acts since 1989 and an average of 35% of your bill goes on nothing but paying more interest and yet more dividends. And not a single company has ever lost their operating licence. 👇
Prem Sikka@premnsikka

Yorkshire Water and Northumbrian Water have nearly 200 criminal convictions between them. On 6 August 2024, Ofwat fined them £47m and £17m for sewage dumping. Fines not paid, will not be paid. Firms claim to have invested. No penalty for abusing laws leftfootforward.org/2026/01/public…

English
648
10.2K
24.5K
724.3K