Rasmus Elling

Velkommen til nye følgere! Jeg hedder Rasmus, har ph.d. i Iran-studier, er lektor i og uddannelsesleder for Mellemøstens Sprog og Samfund på Københavns Universitet. Jeg har boet, studeret og forsket i Iran - og taler persisk. Jeg har arbejdet som Iran-forsker i snart 20 år.

President Trump yesterday: "Their missiles are mostly decimated; they have some, they have probably 18, 19 percent, but not a lot by comparison to what they had." WaPo today: "Iran retains about 75 percent of its prewar inventories of mobile launchers and about 70 percent of its prewar stockpiles of missiles, a U.S. official said. The official said there is evidence that the regime has been able to recover and reopen almost all of its underground storage facilities, repair some damaged missiles and even assemble some new missiles that were nearly complete when the war began." washingtonpost.com/national-secur…

Exclusive: A confidential CIA analysis concludes that Iran can survive the U.S. naval blockade for at least three to four months before facing more severe economic hardship, people familiar with the document said. wapo.st/4eyKQ1M

EXCLUSIVE: Iranian strikes have damaged or destroyed at least 228 structures or pieces of equipment at U.S. military sites, @washingtonpost analysis of satellite imagery reveals...far larger than what has been publicly acknowledged by the U.S. government or previously reported.

Bloomberg challenges a key Trump claim: Iran’s oil industry is not about to “explode” under the U.S. blockade. Iran has more storage than assumed, can gradually slow production, and already survived “maximum pressure” before rebounding to a 46-year output high. Economic pain? Yes. A collapse or a silver bullet forcing surrender? Unlikely. by @JavierBlas bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…

I remember when I first mentioned reports of the damage to the U.S. bases already in the second week of the war, many people called them either exaggerated or completely false... x.com/HamidRezaAz/st…

@theodorebeers We have made most of Ganjoor’s database available, with a minimalistic UI and improved search at persianpoems.com

@SasanianShah @DauiiiNaser چشم. بزودی گزارش خواهم داد

@DauiiiNaser @rasmuselling بیا پاسخ‌گو باش

خیلی دوست دارم بدونم دغدغه مردم دانمارک به عنوان شادترین مردم دنیا چیه و توی تایم‌لاین‌شون در مورد چی حرف میزنن.

Just the beginning. Jet fuel has supplies have completely collapsed

Back to No War, No Peace? 🔹The extension of the ceasefire for an undefined period – while a naval blockade remains in place against Iran – is widely viewed within Iranian debates as a highly unfavorable scenario. 🔹Some commentators even describe it as a worst-case outcome, as it effectively reverses Iran’s earlier strategy of attritional pressure and redirects it back onto Iran itself. In this situation, Iran is placed in a state of suspension – neither war nor peace – which Iranian leaders have explicitly sought to avoid since the outset of the conflict, preferring instead a decisive conclusion. 🔹From Tehran’s perspective, statements by Donald Trump and the current trajectory suggest that the shadow of war continues to loom over the country and its already strained economy. 🔹At the same time, the United States retains freedom of action, preserving the option to re-escalate militarily at a time of its choosing. This dynamic is further compounded by the ability of Israel to continue operating in a gray-zone environment. 🔹Taken together – economic pressure through blockade, strategic uncertainty, and continued low-intensity confrontation – this scenario is seen as gradually eroding Iran’s remaining strategic capacity. Over time, it could also intensify internal divisions among political factions, making crisis management more difficult for the leadership. 🔹In this reading, Trump’s extension of the ceasefire is not interpreted as a face-saving exit from the conflict, but rather as a recalibration of the war’s form and shape, which lowers costs for the United States while increasing them for Iran. 🔹This helps explain why Tehran may be reluctant to accept such an arrangement and could instead consider more assertive responses. 🔹Much will depend on whether the naval blockade is enforced in a substantive way or remains largely symbolic. 🔹A key potential trigger for renewed escalation would be any further interdiction or seizure of Iranian vessels. Such an incident could be framed by Iran as a violation of the ceasefire, potentially prompting a military response against U.S. naval forces and leading to a return to active conflict. 🔹From the perspective of some Iranian decision-makers, this may be seen as less costly than either yielding under pressure or remaining in a prolonged state of strategic limbo.

Approximate estimates of percentages of U.S. munitions expended in Iran war, per @CNN : 50% THAAD interceptors 50% Patriot interceptors 45% Precision Strike Missiles 30% Tomahawk missiles 20% Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missiles 20% Standard Missiles (SM-3 and SM-6)

Trump Approval Polling: Disapprove 64% Approve 32% ARG / April 20, 2026 (Lowest Approval From ARG Ever)

להבנתי, אין כאן שום עניין של ניסיון איראני למשוך זמן. זה לא מו"מ שאפשר למשוך זמן. מועד פקיעת הפסקת האש ידוע היטב לכולם. יש כאן עמדה מהותית וברורה של ההנהגה בטהראן בהובלת משמרות המהפכה: לא יהיה מו"מ אם האמריקאים לא יתפשרו (בצורה כזו או אחרת) בסוגיית המצור הימי. זה לא אומר בהכרח שהם רוצים לחזור ללחימה, אבל נראה שגם אינם חוששים מכך. הם גם מודעים היטב לנזק הכלכלי המצטבר כתוצאה מהמשך המצור הימי, אך עדיין מעריכים שיש לאיראן יכולת לשאת את המחיר הכלכלי למשך מספר חודשים לפחות, בעוד שלצד השני (ארה"ב, הכלכלה העולמית, מדינות המפרץ) יש יכולת להחזיק מעמד עוד שבועות בודדים בלבד. המשמעות היא שבשלב זה נראה שהסיכוי לחידוש השיחות תלוי במידה רבה בנכונות מצד האמריקאים לכל הפחות להקל על המצור הימי (גם אם לא באופן רשמי) בתמורה לחידוש השיחות, מה שיחייב כנראה, בכל זאת, הארכה של הפסקת האש לפחות בכמה ימים נוספים.

@Pakzadesque This is the full article in English: journals.iranacademia.com/plugins/generi… And the Farsi version: journals.iranacademia.com/plugins/generi…

This comprehensive study is a rare check on exile‑media propaganda narratives about the January 2026 uprising. It finds that Pahlavist slogans form a clear minority (~17%) in thousands of collected protest videos, while the vast majority of chants attack the Islamic Republic as a system without monarchist references. Measured against this baseline, Iran International's coverage looks strikingly skewed. ~81% of its protest coverage aligns with Pahlavist themes, nearly a fivefold magnification of their actual weight on the streets. Even BBC Persian, which is detested by Pahlavists, also over‑represents Pahlavi‑aligned content (~35%) but within a more pluralistic frame. Crucially, the two channels together air only about a third of the 4,500 unique protest videos that this research team has identified and convey only a bit over half of the 140‑plus distinct slogans present online, systematically muting non‑Pahlavi voices. Important work. 👇

BREAKING: Iran says it has attacked US military ships with drones in retaliation for the US seizure of the Iranian cargo ship TOUSKA, per Tasnim.

Al Jazeera Reported from Islamabad at 10:00 am PST “ What we understand is that the Iranians will most probably be coming to the talks because of the preparations that are under way here in Islamabad. There is unprecedented security; 20,000 security personnel have been deployed, and large parts of the city have been completely sealed off. Within the last 24 hours, we have heard reports of additional US aircraft, including the C-17 Globemaster that landed at Nur Khan airport, and that would suggest that the bulletproof vehicles, as well as the security team, are already on the ground. Two hotels that have been requisitioned by the state have been sealed off as well, and so Islamabad is expecting delegates to start arriving. There is anticipation that the Iranians will also participate, despite what you hear as the toughening of rhetoric between the two countries, that, of course, is casting a shadow, but the expectation is that the second round will indeed take place.”

BREAKING President Trump says the U.S. military has struck an Islamic Republic of Iran cargo ship and that U.S. Marines have boarded the ship and have custody of it. Touska has been sanctioned since 2019.

UPDATE: Escalation • Lebanon-Israel ceasefire collapsing • IRGC recloses Hormuz, humiliates Aragchi • IRGC targets trade🚢 • Trump holding situation room meeting (Axios) • Lebanon displaced on road again after returning • No date for Iran talks • Bombing could resume soon

US is preparing for major escalation, engaging US troops directly with ships with Iran's oil for the first time. We are at a fork in the road, either US backs down and Iran emerges as the 4th center of world power in the near term -- or, escalation to prevent that from happening. Trump is heading to escalation wsj.com/world/middle-e… via @WSJ

Everyone should see this: since “ceasefire” over 75 US logistics flights into the Gulf. Notice how much depends on Europe’s bases. Shows US preparing for more escalation and its global power would decline markedly without Europe.