kale
301 posts


@alojohhardcore Considering oil price is driven by speculation in the super short term (days/weeks) so not reliable, is looking to Treasury yields more meaningful in this shorter period or even yields are not as much reliable?
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"Tesla first-quarter deliveries likely to dip sequentially as EV demand softens" is an excellent example of how mainstream media headlines try to manipulate you if you don't know stuff:
1. First quarter car sales always decline due to winter and holidays in the world's largest auto market (China).
2. For this reason, one could have predict a year ago that Tesla's sales would decrease from Q4 2025 to Q1 2026. "sequential" means from one quarter to the next quarter.
3. Due to this seasonality using "sequential" instead of the global industry standard "year-over-year" (from Q1 2025 to Q1 2026) is in itself misleading an no respectable auto analyst would ever use "sequentially".
4. So they abuse a typical car industry seasonality to spin a story around "soft" EV demand.
So if you don't know stuff it's easy to manipulate you. This exact same playbook is used in every area of life: education, politics, parenting, nutrition, exercise, etc (you name it).
What's the solution? Learn to know things and assume 99% of what you see is nonsense on media. Peace

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@alojohhardcore Bond yield continue to decrease. Correct me if I'm wrong, but this it what should matter most, so oil prices should not worry in the short term right?
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@alojohhardcore @yagotmegoodBugs Considering we're entering travel season, gas prices needs to come down asap otherwise it'll be difficult to have a forgiven electorate.
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@alojohhardcore Don't know but it seems that recently more people are kind of waking up...
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@slamdust @alojohhardcore I believe what he meant is that Oracle doesn't have any proprietary LLMs developed in-house. We can say its AI strategy is model-agnostic.
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@alojohhardcore What do you mean by "Oracle's advantage is that Oracle is the only player which is not competing against anyone's AI."
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@alojohhardcore No emotions, no cultism or devotion... just pure data analysis no matter the direction. That's why I'm more than happy to pay for this subscription.
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@alojohhardcore @davidel365 My lack of confidence in these situations was driven by really poor data/information. With this subscription I didn't just get a trading edge, I also got mental health!
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@alojohhardcore @Bruce_Lee44 @saltybeef428 I know, this is why I just asked for "an example" and not some😂
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@alojohhardcore @Bruce_Lee44 @saltybeef428 Could please give us an example, or maybe make an article about this? Thanks!
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Should looking to the shortest sentiment period (30 days) be applied also in current market conditions for all stocks? (considering the major sell-offs caused by the Iran's war)
Thus, what's your rule for analysing the shorter term sentiment period (30, 60 days)?
Also, I was wondering when do you find statical relevance for analysing sentiment periods greater than 1 year? (eg, maybe during Alphabet's 2 years narrative overhang was relevant analysing the 2-year sentiment period?)
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@alojohhardcore Yeah that's the crazy part, volatility in rate cut expectations seems kind of hysterical. As you pointed they're not reliable at all when looked for periods longer than 1 months (or even less), still they induce crazy market volatility even if they are founded on nonsense.
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@alojohhardcore Crazy how sentiment for rate cuts changes so quickly in these situations. It seems the market is not well understanding, and doesn't even have the willingness to study the situation here.
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On point. I just continuously repeat myself "Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves". And as you constantly remind us, if you're invested in great companies there's little to worry about.
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Current situation strongly resemble last year's Trade War worries. We're seeing both a sharp sell-off in equities and the 5y5y rate dropping to multi-month lows. Hence, it seems the main worries are related to growth expectations rather than higher inflation.
I believe this will play out exactly as last year as soon as Potus de-escalates.
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@alojohhardcore I've issues accessing this new dashboard. It says "You don't have the permission to access the requested resource. It is either read-protected or not readable by the server."
I'm on Google Chrome through a MacBook Air. Any suggestion?

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@visegrad24 Why are you posting a video of something happened March 4th and saying "BREAKING"????? Deceptive practice.
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BREAKING:
A new video of the burning Maltese-flagged and Egyptian-owned container ship SAFEEN PRESTIGE that was attacked in the Strait of Hormuz on March 4th by the Islamic regime in Iran and has since reignited several times.
It was abandoned by its crew after the initial strike.
The Islamic regime has stated that the strait has been opened only to vessels connected with Russia, India, China, and Spain if they submit a request for passage.
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@alojohhardcore @horvat_de So no newspapers as I had imagined, but what about journals? Do you recommend any?
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